[News page-Taiwan Strait Net].
According to the Associated Press on November 29**, the global economy has shown surprising resilience this year, but it is not expected to perform too well next year under the pressure of war, high inflation and high interest rates.
Headquartered in the Paris-based Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development**, the global economy is growing at 29%, which will slow down to 27% – 2024 will be the year with the lowest global economic growth since 2020.
OECD Secretary-General Mathias Coleman said at a press conference that despite the bleaker outlook, the OECD "expects almost all countries to avoid falling into recession".
But he added that inflation is likely to remain high, and that Israel's conflict with Hamas and the war in Ukraine could affect commodities such as oil and grain.
According to the report, the key factor leading to the slowdown in global economic growth is that the United States will slow down the pace of growth next year. The U.S. economy is expected to grow from 24% slowed to 1. in 20245%, as the Fed's rate hikes (which have been raised 11 times since March 2022) continue to dampen economic growth. The Fed's interest rate hikes have significantly raised borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. The OECD expects U.S. inflation to rise from 39% to 2. in 20248% and 2 in 20252%, just above the Fed's target of 2%.
For now, the U.S. economy appears to be growing strongly: The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending and buoyant private investment, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday2%。
The situation in the eurozone countries is also likely to contribute to a slowdown in global economic growth. The surge in energy** caused by interest rate hikes and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has hit the eurozone countries.
The OECD expects the eurozone as a whole to grow by 09% – sluggish, but still higher than the projected growth rate for this year (0.).6%)。
Claire Lombardelli, chief economist at the OECD, pointed out that the surge in energy has had an impact on Europe. Rising energy prices are increasing household and business spending, exacerbating the cost-of-living crisis and hitting factories in Germany and elsewhere.
Since the beginning of 2020, the world economy has experienced one shock after another – the outbreak of the new crown epidemic; The economic recovery has been unexpectedly strong, leading to a rise in inflation; Russia sent troops to Ukraine; Central banks have taken aggressive steps to curb price momentum, leading to painfully high borrowing rates.
But after all the ordeal, the world economy has shown surprisingly resilient resilience. A year ago, the OECD had a global economic growth rate of 2 in 20232%。It turned out that the ** results at that time were too pessimistic.
"So far this year, economic growth has been stronger than expected," the OECD wrote in the report. But economic growth is slowing as financial conditions tighten, growth is sluggish, and business and consumer confidence is declining. ”
The OECD also warned that Israel's war with Hamas has exacerbated geopolitical tensions and led to new risks to the world economy.
"This could lead to significant disruptions to energy markets and major routes," the OECD said. ”
*: Refer to the news network).