The news that online games that caused a huge shock in the market last Friday were restricted from krypton gold and inducing rewards were complained about the inconsistent regulatory attitude at the time, so the market sentiment was suddenly hit, but now, it is likely that this is not the case.
As far as I know, this may be a patching act at the level of the online game industry, and the leaders did not expect it to have such a violent impact on the market. To put it bluntly, it is likely to be an oolong incident, not a real change in regulatory attitudes。Foreign media reports on this news over the weekend did not think that this was a new round of blows to the game industry.
Later, the official came out to explain, saying that this is only a "draft for comments", and it is still in the process of listening to the opinions of all parties, and there are still uncertainties about how it will be implemented in the end. In addition, it is also emphasized that in the plan announced this time,A special chapter on "Guarantees and Rewards" has been set up, and a series of incentives have been proposed。It's not as negative as the outside world thinks.
In this way, you can understand whyAfter a heavy setback in the market, a new batch of game versions was quickly released this morning, Tencent, NetEase and other companies are on the approved list. From previous experience, edition numbers are generally announced before the end of the day, but this time it was announced before the start of work on Monday. Can you feel this feeling of trying to make amends?
In general,Last Friday's market performance was an overreaction in the context of asymmetric public information, and the market itself is weak and emotionally sensitive
Tencent quickly repurchased about HK$1 billion on the same day, and many public offerings were also decisive. Hong Kong stocks are closed today and tomorrow for Christmas, but the China Concept Internet ETF traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen has begun to recover. Gaming ETF (516010).It has fallen sharply for two consecutive days, and there is momentum to repair the overfall.
In my opinion,The situation is similar for A-shares as a whole, and the market will eventually move out of excessive pessimism and repair valuations。I saw a diagram the other day, and it was intuitive. How low is the valuation of the whole ** now?Only 3000 days in the last 3000 days are cheaper than now.
The day before yesterday, the ** Times published a controversial article, saying that it wanted to correct the name of the Shanghai Composite Index, on the grounds that the Shanghai Composite Index was established on December 19, 1990, and the basis point (the initial point) was 100 points, and now it is 2918 points, a cumulative increase of 28 times in 33 yearsThe compound annual growth rate is 108%
The Dow Jones index of U.S. stocks, from 1896 to the present, has been in line with the average annual growth rate for a total of 127 years, so thinkThe Shanghai Composite Index is actually growing faster than the U.S. stock market
If you think about it on your toes, such an analogy is certainly inappropriate. At the beginning of the release of the Shanghai Composite Index, there were only 8 listed companies, and now there are more than 2,200
Moreover, it is of little significance to compare the compound annual rate of return of decades or even hundreds of years, because whether it is a U.S. stock or a share, most of the gains are basically in a swing style, and U.S. stocks also have a long-term period of not rising. Therefore, it is better to pay attention to large-swing opportunities.
There is one thing to say,NowThe Shanghai Composite Index is indeed worth paying attention to。At the bottom of the history of A-shares in the past, it is impossible to be a pioneer if it really wants to start a reversal and sink in pessimism, so it can only rely on the bottom funds such as GJD, first pull **, try to reverse the market sentiment, and then institutional funds enter the market.
In such an obvious bottom area at the moment, mysterious funds have repeatedly begun to enter the market to support the bottom. The preference of this kind of funds is the best blue chip stocks, and in terms of sectors, they are mainly banks, non-bank finance, central state-owned enterprises, consumption, medical care, etc., so the Shanghai Composite Index will benefit more relatively.
That's why nowThe trend of the Shanghai Composite Index is better than that of the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and CSI 300 Index。Since the beginning of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has achieved excess returns compared with the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index and CSI 300. 15%。The main reason is the repair of the valuation of central state-owned enterprises in the first half of the year, and the effect of repeated support of state-owned assets in the second half of the year.
Data**: wind, data as of 2023-12-22).
Below 3,000 points, of course, there is a margin of safety for the Shanghai Composite Index. It is difficult to rush to 4,000 or 5,000 points at once, but to win the 3,000-point defense battle, this confidence is still there. So** this piece, likeShanghai Composite Index ETF (510760).andJoin**(011320).Such a target has a relatively high degree of attention.
Of course, except for the reasons of the Shanghai Index itself, this oneThe excess returns of the SSE Composite ETF itself are also evidentSince its listing on September 9, 2020, the secondary market has risen by 235%, the Shanghai Composite Index **1211%, with excess returns of more than 14%. (As of 2023 12 22).
In other words, although it tracks the Shanghai Composite Index, it has achieved better returns than the Shanghai Composite Index, which is also a key indicator for funds to evaluate the investment value of an ETF.
Risk Warning: All content in this article is purely a one-sided view and does not constitute any investment advice. Investing is risky, so make careful decisions.