The explosion of AI (artificial intelligence) has benefited the most from upstream chips.
There are cyclical changes in the chip industry, and a complete cycle of change is four years, mainly two years of upward prosperity and two years of declining prosperity.
It is now in the upward trend that began in October 2022 and will continue until October 2024.
In the global chip industry chain, semiconductors are divided into four stages according to production, mainly design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, and foundry.
Due to the heavy asset investment, domestic capital invested in these projects very early and took advantages, which is the only advantage that China has in the global chip industry chain.
Changdian Technology, Tongfu Microelectronics, and Jingfang Technology are all companies in the semiconductor packaging and testing industry.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the great development of artificial intelligence, new demand has been generated for chips. Many industries have been infiltrated by artificial intelligence large models, from the birth of GPT-4 to the strongest native multimodal of Google Gemini, which represents that artificial intelligence has slowly entered the era of large models with mixed learning Xi from traditional text, text, etc., so higher requirements are put forward for upstream chip computing power.
The market needs more computing power to run advanced large models, and the most scarce computing power is AI chips. The speed of chips is getting faster and faster, and the performance requirements are getting higher and higher. For the semiconductor packaging and testing industry. There has been a huge demand, and new technologies in the packaging and testing industry have been frequently developed, and packaging and testing stacking technology has been developed, which can stack two low-end chips together. combined into a system. It can probably be consistent with the efficacy of a high-end chip, which solves a lot of problems of computing power shortage!
In the past, due to the semiconductor cycle, chip production capacity declined. With the outbreak of AI this year, there is a huge demand for chips, and the supply cannot be quickly scaled up according to the past practice, and the construction of new packaging and testing factories requires a certain amount of time and cycle. In the case of rapid growth and explosion of demand, the supply cannot be satisfied, which will inevitably lead to the following three stages.
1.The closed beta order is full.
2. The packaging and testing capacity is full.
3 Closed beta***
The above three stages are the process of reversal of the entire semiconductor packaging and testing cycle.
The main partner of Yitongfu Microelectronics is AMD. Because Tongfu Microelectronics has acquired a large number of AMD's own factories in the past 10 years. Now that AMD has launched the Instinct Mi300 chip, it has received a large number of orders from major technology companies around the world, and these orders will be subcontracted to Tongfu Microelectronics in the future, and Tongfu Microelectronics has certainty. And according to the law of the semiconductor cycle in the past, the valuation at the bottom of the packaging and testing cycle is 1 times the pb, and the top of the packaging and testing cycle is about 5 or 6 times the pb, and the current valuation is still relatively advantageous!
2. The main partner of Changdian Technology is Huawei, and due to the high-tech blockade of a certain country, NVIDIA's AI chips cannot enter. Huawei's Ascend chip has become the choice of domestic science and technology enterprises, and with Huawei's continuous progress, it has the foundation of chip manufacturing, and it can quickly carry out the upgrading of AI chips, Changdian and Huawei are the most important relationship between upstream and downstream industries, and Huawei's new AI chip will be launched next year, so the most beneficial is Changdian Technology, from the perspective of valuation, the high point of the packaging and testing cycle is valued at 5-6 times PB, and there is still room for the current **
3. Jingfang Technology mainly does packaging and testing for CIS chips in the semiconductor sub-industry. With the semiconductor CIS industry, due to Samsung's production cuts, there has been a decline in production capacity, and now consumer electronics and automotive electronics are breaking out, CIS chips are already expected to rise in price, and downstream products have risen in price, which will definitely be transmitted to the upstream
After reading the above comparative analysis, who are you most optimistic about?Welcome to leave a message to discuss.
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