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Gui Haoming
Investors have always been concerned about the dividends of listed companies, because this not only involves the realization path of investment returns, but also relates to the accurate positioning of the market. In recent years, the regulatory authorities have also issued guidance and management rules on dividends of listed companies, and new relevant documents have recently been issued. Objectively, the dividend policy has become an entry point for people to study. From the perspective of the best markets in major economies, a reasonable and stable dividend policy has played a very positive role in the stable operation of the market and attracting more investors to participate. Studies have shown that the sharp rise in some important overseas indices in recent years is related to the implementation of a special dividend policy of repurchase and cancellation. From the point of view of the A** field, in the early stage of its development, the dividend awareness of listed companies is generally insufficient, and there are not many companies with the strength to pay high dividends, which has formed a situation where the dividend level is generally low, and there are even "iron roosters" that do not pay dividends for a long time. With the listing of a large number of blue-chip companies, coupled with the gradual increase in investors' demand for cash dividends, the ability and willingness of listed companies to pay dividends have been significantly enhanced. In the past 10 years, the average dividend payout ratio of listed companies has reached the level of 30%, which is comparable to overseas markets. Some of these listed companies in the banking industry and some home appliances and mining industries, with their excellent profitability, have paid large dividends for many years, with a dividend yield of about 5%, far exceeding the bank interest rate in the same period, bringing good returns to investors. In the 2023 distribution season, the dividend distribution scale of listed companies exceeds 21 trillion yuan, which is more than 4 times the number of equity refinancing in the same period, and far exceeds the amount of IPO funds raised by 550 billion yuan that year. The Shanghai Dividend Index, which focuses on characterizing the trend of high-dividend companies, is one of the very few key indices that have not been very popular this year. Although the dividend distribution of listed companies has reached a high level, it does not seem to have much impact on the market performance this year, and the role of dividends in stabilizing the market is very limited. Of course, the most important reason here is that due to various factors, the trend is relatively weak, and more dividends from listed companies cannot completely solve the problem. However, objectively speaking, since the shareholders are mainly state-owned capital platforms and institutional investors in the listed companies with a high proportion of dividends (in the four major state-owned holding banks, this proportion is as high as more than 95%), under normal circumstances, the dividends received by such investors will have their own arrangements, such as for daily operation and management expenses, as well as other equity investments, etc., and the dividends will continue to be used for secondary market investment, just like Huijin's recent increase in the four major banks. Therefore, from a certain point of view, a high proportion of dividends is actually the way that funds leave the market in the way of rewarding investors, and when it is manifested in the market trend, it will leave an ex-dividend gap formed by cash dividends. In the absence of investors' expectations for the market outlook, it is difficult to fill this gap quickly. For ordinary investors, if they encounter this situation, and if they hold the stock for a short time, they also need to pay dividend tax, so their investment income is not obvious. In fact, this also leads to the fact that even the high dividend ** is not performing well in the market at this stage. Of course, in the listed company to adhere to the continuous high dividends, at the same time, the relevant shareholders can also use the dividends as much as possible to reinvest in the first place, in addition to the listed companies to increase the intensity of repurchase and cancellation, take the initiative to incorporate this model into the important option of dividends, then some existing problems are expected to be resolved, and the positive effect of high dividends on the first market can be fully revealed. To achieve this, it should be a very important thing to optimize the dividend policy and stabilize investors' expectations. For a long time, the A** market has been considered to be highly speculative, and investors who want to make a profit in the market mainly rely on winning the bid-ask spread. With the continuous expansion of the market scale and the change of investor structure, this situation is obviously difficult to continue, and it is necessary to gradually rely more on the company's dividends to support the stock price. Here, a reasonable and stable dividend policy plays an important role, and it is also the basis for the market to return to the source of investment. Therefore, it is particularly necessary to attach importance to the continuous improvement of the dividend policy, and to continuously improve it in combination with the market situation while respecting the independent choice of listed companies. 
This article was first published in Financial Investment News
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