The election situation on the island is very lively, and unlike the previous situation where one family dominated, the impact momentum of the Kuomintang's "Hou Kangpei" combination is very fierce. According to the latestPollsThe data shows that the support rate of "Lai Xiaopei" is 347%, compared to 312%, while "Ke Yingpei" is 168%。* Only 3 more than the Kuomintang5 percentage points, which is close to the margin of error. Chairman of the KuomintangZhu Lilunsaid that since Hou Youyi withZhao ShaokangAfter the formation of the group, the Kuomintang continued to roll every dayPolls, currently shows that "Hou Kangpei" is ahead of "Lai Xiaopei" by 08%。It can be said that the current election situation of the Kuomintang is very good, and it has the opportunity to make an impact.
However,Chinese AmericansProfessor Zhu Zhiqun believes that in 2024, the chances of winning are very high, so to speakLai QingdeDefinitely elected. OnceLai QingdeWinning means that *** will continue to be in power for a long time. Faced with this situation, both Chinese mainland and the United States need to be prepared to deal with the long-term rule. The mainland in addition to continuing to insist on oppositionIn addition to the position, it is also necessary to make preparations for interacting with ***.
Zhu Zhiqun pointed out that ** is a very difficult opponent to deal with. They have a strong international propaganda line, cater to the policies and discourse of the United States and Western countries, and have broad support. At the same time, ** is very clear about the bottom line of the mainland. Despite asPolitical parties, they will not change their nature, but they try not to touch the bottom line that the mainland can use force when administering their policies. Lai QingdeAlthough Xiao Meiqin has repeatedly released wild words and provoked the mainland, she also has a pragmatic side and will not or dare not cross the mainland's red line. Lai QingdeIt has been shown that he will continue to maintainTsai Ing-wenroute, that is, he will not be likeBecome a "troublemaker" all the same. In Zhu Zhiqun's view, ** has never provoked too much, allowing war to break out between the two sides of the strait, which is alsoLai QingdeOne of the most important factors in winning the election.
Zhu Zhiqun believes that young people will play a key role in next year's Taiwan **. After twenty or thirty years of "going to China", young people on Taiwan Island naturally have independent thinking and are politically inclinedGreen CampOr the White Camp. Even if more and more people are disgusted with ***, they will not turn to support the Kuomintang. The Kuomintang is regarded as a foreign political party with the word "China" and "original sin," and it faces great difficulties in regaining power on the island. The main reason why the KMT is difficult to defeat *** is the lack of support from young people. Based on this reason, Zhu Zhiqun believesLai QingdeThe chances of being elected are very good.
However, think about it differently, ifLai QingdeAs a result of the election, the leading power and initiative in reunification are completely in the hands of the mainland in the cross-strait situation. Perhaps, in a short period of time, the mainland will not adopt the method of reunification by force, but it is possible to achieve a poor and impoverished Taiwan. Lai QingdeThere will be no way out, and the realization of cross-strait reunification is inevitable.
Zhu Zhiqun believes that if the United States is in power for a long time and refuses to recognize the one-China principle, the United States will not exert pressure on it, but will put the mainland in a predicament. Therefore, while upholding principles, the mainland also needs to be more flexible in handling exchanges with Taiwan affairs. As a Chinese-American professor, Zhu Zhiqun's views are very obviously on the position of the US and Taiwan authorities, advocating and even getting the mainland to recognize the government.
In this regard, we believe that inLai QingdeUnder the condition of being in power, the mainland completely controls the leading power and initiative in the cross-strait situation. Although the method of reunification by force may not be adopted in the short term, the mainland can achieve suppression of Taiwan by plunging it into economic difficulties. Lai QingdeIt will be in a predicament, there will be no way out, and cross-strait reunification will inevitably be realized.
From the point of view of Chinese expert Zhu Zhiqun, he **Lai QingdeIt will definitely be elected in 2024, which also means that *** will continue to be in power for a long time. Zhu Zhiqun believes that *** is a difficult opponent to deal with, they have the broad support of Western countries, and they are very clear about the bottom line of the mainland. In administering the country, we should try to avoid touching the bottom line that the mainland can use force, which has also eased the tension between the two sides of the strait.
In addition, Zhu Zhiqun believes that the support of young people for Lai Qingde is very crucial. Although more and more people are dissatisfied with ***, young people are leaning towards itGreen CampOr the White Camp. However, due to its special status as a foreign party and the burden of history, it is difficult for the KMT to win the support of young people. Based on this reason, Zhu Zhiqun believesLai QingdeThe chances of being elected are very good.
However, we think inLai QingdeAfter being elected, the mainland will completely control the leading power and initiative in the cross-strait situation. Although it may not be possible to adopt the method of reunification by force in the short term, the mainland can put Taiwan in a difficult situation through economic means, letLai QingdeThere is no way out. Cross-strait reunification will inevitably be realized under such circumstances.
In short, for the mainland, in the face of a long-term rule, in addition to adhering to principles, defend oppositionIn addition to the position, it is also necessary to have a more flexible ability to handle affairs with Taiwan and maintain flexibility in exchanges with Taiwan. This allows for better maintenanceand create favorable conditions for achieving reunification.