Shanhai: **The range is obvious, and the market is waiting for the PCE data to be released!
The recent market focus is still around the end of the Fed policy meeting last week, the Federal Reserve released at least three interest rate cuts next year, the US dollar has remained weak, and it is difficult to get out of the strong or weak continuation, however, this week the market is waiting for the strong PCE data impact, which is expected to have a certain impact on the temporary dollar and **. Market focus on Thursday: U.S. jobless claims for the week to December 16, U.S. real GDP for the third quarter annualized q/q, U.S. real personal consumption expenditures for the third quarter, U.S. core PCE price index for the third quarter annualized q.o.o., Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index for December.
The U.S. dollar walked out on Wednesday according to the **, but the strength was not very large, and the highest did not break Tuesday's **high of 102.2. At present** near 102, the overall level is still maintained at the low level after this week's sharp fall**, Thursday and Friday are also concerned about the low ** strength of this cycle, if this week stands firm at 102Above 2, the dollar is bound to get out of the larger ** space, and look at 103 above8 highs. Recently, pay attention to the stimulus of Friday's US market PCE data, and wait patiently for the ** cyclical changes.
When you stand by the sea, the waves of the sea are perhaps the most beautiful;When you're trekking through the Gobi Desert, a mirage is perhaps the most beautiful;When you're immersed in a casino, money is perhaps the most beautiful. When you face the blue sky, you have to learn to soar in the sky;When you face the mountains, you have to learn to be resilient. If you can't be a big river, you can make a small stream, and if you can't be a towering tree, you can be a small weedIf you can't be a hero who stands up to the sky, just be an ordinary person. As long as you keep running, growing, and working hard, you will also walk through the mountains and rivers, and you will be green all over the world, and you will live a bright and upright life. Wednesday *** is very accurate, in Tuesday peaked 2048 suppressed after the fall, Wednesday on ** to 2042 high empty, the U.S. market focus on 2030 gains and losses, 2030 is not broken to see **, 2030 break to see 2015, this series of ideas interprets Wednesday all **, 2044 empty, 2042 short have good profits, and even midnight 2036 short also profits. In terms of **, although Shanghai Gold, Shanghai Bank, and Rongtong Gold have the best performance, and the synchronization is Shanghai Bank, it does not affect the current short orders, so continue to wait for market changes on Thursday and Friday.
At the beginning, determine the direction and point of the day: **range** has been formed, the strong to weak performance breakthrough, the intraday **empty, pay attention to the gains and losses in 2015!Wednesday emphasized, do not take Tuesday's strength as unilateral, before breaking the 2048 high, ** may not be able to continue, so, the mountains and seas on Wednesday very tomorrow tips can be at the second high of 2042 short to see the downside, continuous until midnight, **the lowest in 2027, up and down 15 US dollars throughout the day, although the support point of 2030 was broken at midnight, but the continuity of ** is not strong, therefore, Thursday** is still a high probability of a**, but the space below is not finished, this** More biased towards perpetuating weakness. From a technical point of view, Wednesday's ** space prompts the daily line to close the yin, and the formation of **yin and yang conversion at a high level, it can be clear that Thursday ** is not as strong as Tuesday and Wednesday, but the daily ** is still above the Bollinger middle track, so the basis for the strength is also more obvious, the market outlook is still a little early, if the daily line on Thursday closes again and breaks the Bollinger middle track, the market can get out of the big fall space. Since the technical side of the daily cycle can not give a clear direction and point, then pay attention to the performance of the H4 cycle, the interval of the H4 cycle ** is more obvious, after Wednesday's**, Bollinger determined that it is a state of closing, the suppression support of the upper and lower rails are in 2045, 2015, as long as the range is not broken in the near future, it is difficult to appear directional unilateral trend, although it fell below the Bollinger middle track 2030 support at midnight, but **space failed to continue, and went out again**, so, today** It is not so weak, and intraday trading still has to wait for the ** high to be short, and find a test of the lower band of H4 Bollinger. The small cycle can be seen that Tuesday's high is at 2047, Wednesday's high is at 2042, and the high is gradually**, then, Thursday's upper suppression is placed at 2038, **This point can continue to be short, look at the low below 2015.
Spot **Wednesday** wave to 244, this wave of strength is a bit surprising to be honest, even if it is, it can** to 242 is very powerful, but fast ** to 244 can't**, and the current **price is at 242. It does not affect this week's high-altitude orders, the actual cyclicality is still **, waiting for the conversion of this wave of strong and weak trends, and also waiting for the impact of Friday's PCE data. Friends who have no trading on Thursday are available at 242Continue to go short and wait for the trend to change.
The international ** is bullish on Wednesday, and the trend is also direct **, and does not give the opportunity to go long at 73, the highest at 753. The whole market refreshed the high again, but at midnight ** out of a wave of retreat, currently ** at 746. At this time, it is necessary to pay attention to whether the ** is a strong and weak conversion or a ** range. From a technical point of view, the daily line closed high under the trend line, and this negative line may be a conversion signal for the strength and weakness adjustment, or it may be an adjustment signal for the continuation of the bulls, so it remains to be seen whether the Thursday ** will continue ** or the adjustment will weaken. The performance of the H4 cycle is still the state of the ** trend, although Bollinger closed, but did not change the temporary trend, so, today as a whole or to see the fall to long, below the support at 73 728, and the upper part is concerned about 753. If it is broken, continue to see the big upside, and if it is not broken, it will look at the ** adjustment.
*Aspect: 1: Shanghai Gold 2406 contract.
Shanghai Gold fluctuated little on Wednesday, and it rose and fell slightly during the whole session, which did not affect the judgment in the early stage. At present, ** is around 478, and the view of this cycle is still unchanged from last week's view, waiting for 480 to suppress ** space. From a technical point of view, whether it is a daily cycle or an H4 cycle, it is a performance of high ** and other declines, therefore, do not have too many thoughts in this cycle, patiently hold the high, wait for profits, and gradually look below to the low point of 475,470.
2: Rongtong gold.
Rongtong gold on Wednesday basically no change, at present** near 475, due to the space and strength is not large, so the basic idea remains unchanged, the near future is also to maintain the high-altitude strategy of Rongtong gold, synchronous patience to wait for this wave of strong to weaken ** space, below gradually see the low point of 470,468.
3: Shanghai Bank 2406 contract.
Shanghai silver is the most concerned about the recent investment varieties, Monday, Tuesday fluctuations are not large, back and forth, short single profit is not out, Wednesday is out of a wave of accidents, the highest in the vicinity of 6110, but midnight also quickly closed down, at present**in 6070, the overall is still in a relative position**, we do not because of Wednesday's accident ** and change the medium-term bearish thinking, so, Thursday or to maintain the previous high empty unchanged, and there are no short friends, can continue to lay out short orders today. From the perspective of market changes, it is expected that Thursday's fluctuations will not be very large, optimistic that there is room for falling, the following focus on 6000, the target of this wave of the middle line ** to see 5850 unchanged, Friday's PCE data is the biggest impact on the current ** this week, we hold short orders and wait patiently.
4: Fuel 2406 contract.
This wave of fuel rose slowly to 3100 on Wednesday and then came out of the fall, temporarily lowest at 3040, the overall performance is also a weak short **, there was no transaction on Wednesday, and it is not very easy to trade on Thursday, although ** has not been completed, but it is currently determined to be a bearish trend, so it is not good to give a clear trading prompt, it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines on Wednesday. During the day, pay attention to 3100, 3150 above, and 2980, 2900 below.
5: Soda ash 2406 contract.
Soda ash fell below the previous support point of 2080 on Wednesday, and turned strong and weak at a relatively high level, but temporarily maintained the bullish trend, do not think that a small fall space has changed the absolute bullish trend in the early stage, so the current risk of chasing short is very large, and it is more uncomfortable to be a little more uncomfortable, and it is recommended that this wave of soda ash is best to wait for the layout of the medium and long-term short. In fact, the inventory pressure of soda ash in the upstream of the market is still relatively large, and the lower market feedback and law is also a normal market feedback and law. The technical upper part is suppressed at 2100, 2200, normal trading should be waiting for this wave of ** to go short after the end, Thursday, Friday waiting for the opportunity, and then observe and wait and see.
Written by Mountains and Seas.
The above article was originally written by Shanhai, **Please indicate the source. Shanhai warmly reminds that investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. The above only represents Shanhai's personal views and is not used as a basis for operation, and the operation is at your own risk).