[Introduction].At the beginning of December, the temperature in the north and south of the country was unusually high, a few days ago, the highest temperature in North China and Huanghuai soared to 27, but with the arrival of the cold wave weather, many places cooled down nearly 30 overnight, and the temperature also turned from high to cold. Can the pig price successfully "break 8"? Here comes the specific analysis!
According to the latest agency data, on December 12, the average price of lean pigs in the country was 1408 yuan kg, equivalent to 704 yuan catty, pig prices rose again into the "7 yuan era", however, because the domestic pig fattening cost is generally 16 17 yuan kg, the breeding end is still in the stage of concentrated losses, part of the purchased piglet fattening loss in about 200 yuan!
Judging from the feedback of the domestic regional market, in the 28 regions of the national key monitoring, the rise and fall of pig prices showed a trend of "3 down, 16 up and 9 flat", and pig prices continued to be the trend of most of the first, and in some areas of Heilongjiang, Gansu and Guizhou, pig prices were **01~0.3 yuan, and in the ** region, the mainstream *** 005~0.5 yuan, the market continued to rise in a narrow range, among them, the national average price of live pigs slaughtered with Beijing, Tianjin, Shaanxi 141 yuan kilogram is similar, and the price of pigs in Xinjiang has risen to 133 yuan kg, ** at a new low in the country, pig prices in Fujian rose to 15 yuan kg, ** at the national high!
In the traditional high and low market, Heijiliao area, the pig slaughter ** in 1355~13.8 yuan kg, while in the traditional ** area, the Sichuan-Chongqing market is at 145~14.7 yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets**1465~14.8 yuan, the price of pigs in the two regions rose to 146~14.8 yuan kg!
On the one hand, affected by the cold wave weather, the Middle East in China, the purchase and sale of live pigs and white strips are not smooth, rain and snow increase, limiting the performance of farmers slaughtering, and exacerbating the pressure on the wholesale market white strips; On the other hand, the temperature has dropped, in the northern region, residents' consumer demand has gradually rebounded, and the market's bullish sentiment for southern pickles has become stronger, and the sentiment is expected to rise!
Therefore, under the guidance of emotions, under the influence of rain and snow weather, the mentality of carrying prices at the breeding end has increased, the purchase and sale of live pigs in some areas are not smooth, and pig prices have shown a strong trend! However, this round of rain and snow weather is basically over, the rhythm of grassroots pig purchase and sales or will be restored, from last night's slaughterhouse procurement performance, the northern region, the slaughterhouse pig source procurement difficulty has weakened, the grassroots pig farm slaughter mentality has become stronger, the group pig enterprise price mentality is general, the slaughter is relatively positive, the slaughterhouse is facing the difficulty of purchasing pigs weakened, the northern market, pig prices or weak and stable situation, in some areas, slaughtering enterprises by the pig source to the factory, or will go down!
However, in the southern market, the traditional pickled concentrated areas, with the deepening of this round of cold wave weather, southwest Sichuan and Chongqing and other places, pickled good or will be cashed, the market bullish sentiment has become stronger, farmers are reluctant to sell the price increases, the downstream market has a certain stocking phenomenon, the white strip ** went higher, driving the local standard pig **, however, the standard fertilizer price spread is narrow, the big pig is in general, and the pickling is good has not been cashed in a centralized manner!
From this analysis, supported by sentiment, pig price fluctuations are strong, however, the northern region of the pig farm by the risk of disease, slaughter sentiment, pig prices under pressure, however, in the southern region, pickled or will be cashed in, pig prices still have the performance of making up for the rise, it is expected that in the short term, pig prices or will continue to narrow and strong trend, in the southwest, pig prices or will gradually "bright", the southern market stagnant bacon production or will start, which will also support pig prices continue to rise! Rationally, in the middle and late of this month, pig prices or will usher in a "wave of price increases", after all, under the sharp drop in temperature, the benefits of consumer demand will gradually be realized, and pig prices will also usher in the "peak season" ** situation!
However, the pig price "broke 8", and there is still a lot of resistance! On the one hand, the pressure of disease in pig farms still exists, after winter, the respiratory tract and diarrhea in pig farms are more prominent, the risk of damage to medium and large pigs and sows is higher, and there is passive pressure on the breeding end. The grouped pig enterprises are concentrated at the end of the year, and there is still a risk of stampede for large-scale pig enterprises to be slaughtered due to the increase in pig farms; On the other hand, the domestic pork production capacity is abundant, the pig slaughter is positive, the average weight of the pig increases, and the frozen pork inventory level has been at a high level for a long time, which will obviously overdraft the good performance of pickling!
Therefore, based on multiple market analysis, I personally believe that although pig prices have a trend, the first amplitude may be dragged down by production capacity, and the space is limited! Hogs**
With the help of cold wave weather, pig prices have risen "3 times in a row" against the trend, and the price rise tide is coming? Pig prices to "break 8"? What do you think about this? The above is the author's personal opinion, **from the Internet!