Today is Christmas in the West, Hong Kong stocks are closed today and tomorrow, and U.S. stocks are closed today, leaving Big A to struggle alone.
Anyway, there is only one last week left in 2023, **There are still about 90 points away from 3000 points, can you take it back?Maybe most people don't have that kind of heart now.
Big thunder on Friday
Originally, the market had already shown signs of stabilizing and stopping, but the Press and Publication Administration released the "Measures for the Administration of Online Games (Draft for Solicitation of Comments)" in the middle of last Friday, which extinguished the little confidence in the market.
Tencent's stock price plunged -1235%, and the market value evaporated 337.1 billion yuan;
NetEase shares plunged -2460%, the market value evaporated 117.2 billion yuan;
Game and animation-related ETFs all fell to the limit, and media ETFs were close to the limit, so that the best performing sector of A-shares this year failed to end well.
The Press and Publication Administration probably didn't expect the market to react so violently, and then began to reassure itself
Last Friday, a new batch of 40 imported game versions were announced, but the market didn't buy it
He also explained over the weekend that the draft aims to promote the prosperity and healthy development of the industry, and will be further revised and improved in combination with the concerns and opinions of all parties
The Game Working Committee also issued a document saying that the number of new domestic online game versions approved in December has exceeded 100, which effectively demonstrates the clear attitude of the competent authorities to actively support the development of online games.
Three arrows in a row, can be described as "one slap and three dates"!
It is true that the authorities do not mean to crack down on the game industry, but they ignore the current situation of the "frightened birds" in the capital market.
After three consecutive "death-free gold medals", they were not able to turn the tide.
Today, the game sector continued, Giant Network and Kaiying Network continued to fall to the limit, and Sanqi Mutual Entertainment and Aofei Entertainment also fell by more than -7%.
For the draft of the new regulations on game regulation, foreign investors are still relatively calm:
Morgan Stanley believes that this will have an impact on the revenue of the Chinese gaming industry by no more than 5%;UBS believes that the new rules are still subject to changeGoldman Sachs believes that regulators will continue to support the development of domestic games and focus on cultivating a healthy game industry environment in the future.
In contrast, the views of domestic institutions are more cautious: Tencent, NetEase and other leading manufacturers, which have been gradually rectifying and operating more standardized, are estimated to be less affected this timeHowever, the impact on small and medium-sized game manufacturers in the second and third echelons may be relatively large. In the future, opportunities in the game industry may be concentrated in the top manufacturers and some game companies with a high proportion of overseas revenue.
Hong Kong stocks have been suspended for the past two days, and whether the stock prices of Tencent and NetEase can recover will have to wait until Wednesday to seeIn the first half of 2023, Kunlun Wanwei, which accounted for 83% of overseas revenue, took the lead today, up 274%。
On the whole, the panic in the short-term market is spreading, and the game stocks are likely to be over-falling.
Kunpeng Project
Look for opportunities
Looking back at last week's **, in addition to the thunderbolt on Friday's game section, you can still find some opportunities.
1. Small-cap stocks and technology stocks that performed better in the early stage continued to make up for losses last week, but super and ** stocks have begun to stop falling**.
The SSE 50 Index bucks the trend**112%, the CSI 300 index is only ** -013%, compared with other broad-based indices is still very resistant.
The main reason is that they are too cheap, with the price-to-book ratios of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 both hitting record lows recently.
The price-to-book ratio is calculated by dividing market capitalization by net assets, which also means that the SSE 50 and CSI 300 are cheaper than they were at the bottom of previous bear markets.
2. Mao index stabilized**. The Mao Index contains 42 "Moutai-like" constituent stocks, mainly leading companies in subdivisions such as consumption, medicine and technology manufacturing, and are also heavy stocks of foreign capital and public offerings, which can be understood as the core assets of A-shares.
Since mid-February 2021, the Mao index has risen by exactly 50% from its high point to an important support level.
Last Thursday, the Mao index **154%, full week**022%, there are already signs of stabilization**.
Now that the U.S. Treasury yields have fallen rapidly, if the Federal Reserve starts to cut interest rates as scheduled next year, there is a high probability that foreign capital will return to the A** market, which is more beneficial to the Mao Index.
3. Ambush in the industry that foreign capital likes. Assuming that some foreign capital will come back next year, then ambushing in advance in the industry preferred by foreign capital should be able to obtain certain benefits, which is also the current allocation idea of some institutions.
According to historical statistics, the industries with more foreign holdings include power equipment and new energy, food and beverage, medicine, banking, electronics, home appliances, etc.
Judging from the recent market performance, power equipment and new energy, food and beverage, home appliances, banking and other industries have begun to stop falling**.
In the power equipment and new energy industry, the two subdivisions of new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, which everyone is most concerned about, have fallen by about 60% since February 2021, which is seriously over-falling, and their valuations are also at the lowest level since the beginning of 2020.
Judging from the decline of upstream raw materials such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon, it has approached the cost range of most enterprises, and the phenomenon of suspension and production reduction has appeared. This also means that the space for raw materials to continue to be very limited, although the cruel competition pattern of the industry still exists, but a wave of over-falling ** can still be expected.
The food and beverage sector, including liquor, has fallen back to near the lows of late October last year and is also an important support level. Looking at the trend of some industry leaders, the stock price of Haitian Flavor Industry has deviated from the MACD indicator for a long time, and there was a large volume at a low level last week, which is a very positive bullish signal.
Yanghe, Tsingtao Beer, China Duty Free and other leading consumer stocks also have the same bottom divergence characteristics.
Foreign investment banks began to sing long
After two consecutive years of losses in partial stocks, and three consecutive years of declines in indices such as CSI 300 and SSE 50, some large foreign investment banks smelled the opportunity to pick up bargains and recently began to sing long A-shares.
Nomura Orient International:The market is expected to have upside over the next 12 months, both in terms of valuation repair and earnings improvement. Although there is some uncertainty, on the whole, there are many positive factors.
BlackRock CCB Wealth Management:Looking forward to the first half of 2024, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have relatively good allocation opportunities. Both horizontal and vertical valuations are currently at low levels.
Morgan Stanley:The target point of the CSI 300 Index at the end of 2024 is set at 3850 points, corresponding to about 15% of the ** space.
Goldman Sachs:In 2024, the MSCI China Index and CSI 300 Index constituents are expected to achieve earnings growth of 10% and 11%, respectively, similar to this year's performance.
In 2024, it will definitely be better.