In 2023, the Shanghai Composite Index will rise and fall around 3,000 points, and other stock indexes will also perform poorly.
But there is such a broad-based index, and its performance can be described as unique.
Data**: wind, data as of 202301.01-2023.11.30, not recommended as an index, past data does not represent the future).
It's CSI 2000!
CSI 2000, who is it?
CSI 2000 (**932000) is oneSmall cap indices,Published on August 11 of this year, the base day is calculated from December 31, 2013, and the basis point is 1000 points.
Generally speaking, the market refers to the SSE 50 and CSI 300 as indices with higher component values as ** indexes, and comparatively, those with smaller component ** values such as CSI 2000 are counted as members of small-cap indexes.
Data**: wind, data as of 202311.30, the industry is based on the first level of Shenwan, not recommended as an index).
Compare it with the CSI 300 that we are more familiar with, and you may understand it more easily.
In terms of scale
*The CSI 300 represents the index, and the average and median market capitalization of its constituent stocks are around 150 billion yuan and 75 billion yuan respectively, which is far ahead of the 4.7 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan of the small-cap index CSI 2000. If the CSI 300 belongs to the "head" of the scale, then the CSI 2000 may be in the "legs". Small but fine, is its characteristic.
From the perspective of industry distribution
The weight of the CSI 300 is mainly concentrated in consumption (food and beverage), finance (banking, non-bank finance), technology (power equipment, electronics), etc., while the CSI 2000 focuses on industrial manufacturing (machinery and equipment, basic chemicals), technology (electronics, medicine and biology, computers), etc.
Relatively speaking, the first composition of CSI 2000 is more manufacturing, while the attributes of consumption and finance will be weaker.
How is the CSI 2000 performing?
After introducing its surname, who looks like, the next thing I have to talk about is itPast resultsFinish. It is still compared with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 to 1.
Data**: wind, data cut-off: 201301.01-2023.11.30, not recommended as an index, past data does not represent the future).
Judging from the trend of the past ten years, the cumulative rise and fall of the CSI 2000 reached 14537%, annualized rate of return 974%, significantly outperforming the CSI 300. 43%。In the case of Wind All A and CSI 300 recording negative returns this year, the CSI 2000 still achieved a positive return of about 8%, which has attracted the attention of many investors.
At the same time, just from the steepness and volatility of the graph, it can be seen that the volatility of the CSI 2000 seems to be higher than that of the CSI 300. Indeed, the annualized volatility of the CSI 2000 is 2810%, higher than the CSI 300's 2082%, so investors who are more sensitive to volatility should be cautious. (Data**: wind, the annualized rate of return adopts the ordinary rate of return method;The annualized volatility is based on the ordinary yield method, with a period of "week").
Why are small caps doing well this year?
Why did the CSI 2000 perform well this year?There are the following possible causes:
Compared with ** stocks, small-cap stocks have less requirements for incremental funds, that is, the same amount of funds may leverage larger gains;
Since August, northbound funds have begun to flow out more significantly, while small-cap stocks have been relatively less affected by northbound funds (northbound funds hold relatively few small-cap stocks), and have maintained some gains
In the context of relatively abundant liquidity, rapid sector rotation and rebound in risk appetite, small-cap stocks are relatively easier to participate and investors are more enthusiastic than ** stocks.
So, is the current CSI 2000 over?Is there any room for growth?
Let's take a look at the history first: how long does the dominance of small-cap stocks generally last?
Divide the ** prices of CSI 2000 and CSI 300 to get the relative strength trend of the small cap and ** index:
When the trend is upward, it can be considered that the small cap (CSI 2000) is relatively dominant.
When the trend is downward, it is ** (CSI 300) is relatively dominant.
Data**: wind, data cut-off: 201312.1-2023.11.30, past data does not represent the future).
From the data observation results of the past 10 years, the time period from 2014 to November 2016 and February 2021 to the present, while from December 2016 to January 2021, it is the dominant number of first-cap stocks. In other words, ** stocks are relatively superior to small-cap stocksThe duration of the intermediate level** is roughly 3-5 years。The ** that started in February 2021 has lasted for more than 2 years, and this curve still has no downward trend. Therefore, judging from the historical trend, the CSI 2000 may still have a chance to continue.
However, the future is not a simple extrapolation of history, and the data of the past are only statistical results. Therefore, it is necessary to go back to the source and take advantage of the situation to see whether the current market characteristics are still suitable for CSI 2000
When the economic recovery trend is obvious, the industrial investment opportunities are abundant, and the technology continues to advance, the small-cap style prevails
In the context of positive economic expectations, investors are more inclined to look for targets with high growth potential in small companies, and deduce the ultimate growth in the track, such as 2013-2016 and 2021 in China
Since 2021, the economy has been in a weak recovery trend, the country's determination to support economic recovery is strong, investment outlets in emerging industries have appeared frequently, and the small-cap style has been dominant for many times, and the overall trend has shifted to the small-cap style
In the current market, the Shenwan Small Cap Index (801813) PE-TTM is 2543, which is 1491%, which is still at a relatively low level. Data**: wind, data as of 202312.11）
Therefore, at the current point in time, the small-cap index still has allocation value.
A clumsy and simplified approach
Predicting the market is not easy for us ordinary investors. A slightly clumsy but simplified way, that isConfigure in advance
What happens if you stay there all the time?You'll find out when you test it!
Backtesting conditions:
Purchase ratio: divided into three types, namely: according to 1:1 **CSI 300 + CSI 2000;All**CSI 300;All**CSI 2000
* Time: Since 201312.31 to 201811.20, per trading day**.
Holding Period: **5 years after holding.
Statistical results: what is the proportion of positive returns, and what range is the yield distributed.
Backtest results:
Percentage of positive returns:
Earnings distribution range:
Data**: wind, backtest data time: 201312.31-2023.11.30, not recommended as an index, past data does not represent the future).
It's not hard to see:
If it is only allocated to CSI 2000, due to its past performance and high volatility, there is a situation where the proportion of negative returns is relatively high (that is, the proportion of green parts is relatively high). Therefore, if you simply allocate CSI 2000, there may be a problem that the account rises and falls sharply
If you want to invest in CSI 2000, you can increase the proportion of positive returns in the account as a whole by matching it with CSI 300 (47.).37%→83.91%）；
Through the combined allocation of CSI 300 + CSI 2000, the stability of investment can be improved to a certain extent (that is, the proportion of pink part is relatively high).
Therefore, if you don't consider timing, you can directly configure CSI 2000The drawbacks of being able to withstand its high volatility need to be considered。If you don't want to give up its high yield, you can consider combining it with other style indices such as CSI 300 to increase the proportion of positive yield and increase the overall stability of the account.
Focusing on the present, the CSI 2000 index has a strong trend in the short term, coupled with its own high volatility, which has caused small partners to worry about chasing high, so you can consider the layout of dips. From the perspective of strategic allocation, since the small-cap index has a complementary relationship with the ** index, it can continue to pay attention to and track for a long time for the purpose of balanced layout.
Risk Warning:
1.The indices and information mentioned above do not constitute investment advice. All information in this material is current as of the date of publication, and if there is any change, please refer to the latest information. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
2.**The Manager does not guarantee profitability and does not guarantee a minimum return.
3.Before investing in this company, investors should carefully read the "Contract", "Prospectus" and "Product Key Facts Statement" and other legal documents, fully understand the risk-return characteristics and product characteristics of this company, and fully consider their own risk tolerance according to their own investment objectives, investment period, investment experience, asset status and other factors, and make rational judgments and prudent investment decisions on the basis of understanding the product situation and sales suitability opinions, and independently assume investment risks.
4.Past performance of the Index is not indicative of its future performance, and performance of other indicators managed by the Manager does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of this Index.
5.The manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's responsibility" in investment, and after investors make investment decisions, investors are responsible for the investment risks caused by fluctuations in operating conditions, share listing and trading, and changes in net value.
6.The registration of this ** by the China Securities Regulatory Commission does not indicate that it has made a substantive judgment or guarantee on the investment value, market prospects and returns of this **, nor does it indicate that there is no risk in investing in this **.
7.This material is not intended as any legal document, and all information or opinions expressed in this material do not constitute investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, and we do not make any guarantee for the final action advice regarding the content of the material. Under no circumstances shall the Company be liable to any person for any loss arising from the use of any content in this material. China's first operation time is relatively short, and it cannot reflect all stages of development. The market is risky, and investors need to be cautious.