[**Analysis and Interpretation] 2024
As of noon, the three major indexes were mixed in early trading as a whole, and then showed a narrow range, with more than 3,100 rising and falling in the two cities, with a half-day turnover of 504.1 billion and a net outflow of 37 northbound funds8.3 billion.
In mid-December last year, I gave a forecast for a large index. I will form a big bottom around 2900 points, while the GEM will form a bottom between 1700-1800 points, and for the Shenzhen Component Index, I expect it to fall below 9000 points, but the space will be relatively limited.
Now it seems that in the market in the past half a month, except for **slightly lower than my expectations, the other two major indices have been operating within the range I expected, and ** has only slightly fallen below 2900 points, and it was quickly repaired back, which shows that the bottom of this large level I gave is still quite accurate.
At the worst of the previous **, I gave a suggestion to hold a position, telling everyone to at least wait until the winter passes, and if **not**, we will not consider cutting meat and adjusting positions. But now it seems that the market may come out of the New Year's Eve in the short term, although there are some**, but there is hope that it may continue to the Spring Festival, because according to historical data, ** in the process of recovering 3000 points 53 times, the average time is 56 days, the median time is 6 days, if history can repeat itself, from 2900 points to 3000 points can be at least 3%.
In addition, from the perspective of the external environment, inflation in the United States has begun to fall, and the market generally believes that the interest rate hike cycle has ended, as early as March next year, and as late as May next year, they may begin to cut interest rates, which will lift a big seal for the world's major markets, and the constraints on RMB assets are likely to weaken. Therefore, I set the time for next spring, and if I don't see any signs of recovery in A-shares at that time, I will consider adjusting my position, because I also want to see if A-shares will follow the mainstream rhythm of the market to recover.
From the plateCoal, national defense and military industry, traditional Chinese medicineSectors led the rally today；Liquor, food and beverage, biological productsSectors led the decline today.
From a financial point of viewIron and steel, medical equipment, agricultureNet inflow of main forcesHigh-end manufacturing, Internet, digital new**Net outflow of main forces.
Looking at it exponentiallyCSI Coal, Coal Equal Rights, Power GridThe daily gains were among the highestCSI Liquor, CSI Liquor, Hang Seng Hong Kong Listed Biotech IndexThe daily gains were the least.
[Technical].
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update):5 weeks**Death fork 10 weeks**;The MACD indicator is dead, the green bar is shortened, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axisThe KDJ indicator death fork converges downward, and the J value bottoms out and turns around;The Boll channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the lower band.
Analysis:In the medium term, as I said last week, the index began to ** after the overfall, and at the same time** it was also under pressure for 5 weeks**, but at present, the probability of continuing to repair in the medium term is still greater.
Daily chart (daily update):5th**Golden Fork 10th**;The MACD indicator is dead, the green bar is shortened, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axis;The golden cross of the KDJ indicator spreads upward, and the J value peaks;The Boll channel opening converged, and the stock index ran above the middle band.
Analysis:In the short term, there is still a certain amount of space for the index, but I don't think there is much space, because the index is about to encounter the pressure of the 30th, this pressure line has suppressed the index several times last year, and the continued upside of other technical indicators is not large.
[Fundamentals & News].
According to the Bureau of Statistics, in December 2023, the manufacturing PMI was 490%, down 04 percentage points. （pmi）
According to the data of the China Index Institute, the sales amount of the top 100 real estate companies in 2023 will be 62,7910 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 173%。(Real Estate).
In 2023, there will be 313 A-share listed companies, raising a total of 3,565 through IPOs3.9 billion yuan, the number of IPO companies and the amount of funds raised decreased year-on-year respectively. ipo）
According to Canalys, China's L2+ market will develop rapidly in 2023 and is expected to expand this trend to the global market in 2024. (Intelligent Driving).
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the annual production and sales in 2023 are expected to reach about 30 million units, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 9 million units. (Automotive).
CCTV financial news, in 2023, the output of China's service robots will reach 7.06 million sets, and the market size will reach 66 billion yuan. (Robots).
[Valuation Surface].
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 1268, undervaluation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 2097, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio 2785, underestimated;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 4529, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 1096, undervaluation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio 933, undervaluation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 2191, undervaluation.
[Plate Analysis].
CSI liquor:Today, the liquor sector led the decline, take the opportunity to talk about the liquor sector, as well as the consumption sector, let's talk about the big brother of the liquor sector first, Moutai announced the production and operation situation in 2023 last Friday, and the company is expected to achieve a total operating income of 149.5 billion yuan for the whole year, a year-on-year increase of 1720%;It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies will be about 73.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 172%。This data is really good, achieving the goal in the previous annual report, but this data is lower than the expected target of the market, according to wind data, the net profit attributable to the parent company of Kweichow Moutai in 2023 will increase by 1838%。Don't underestimate this expectation, many times the business is doing well, but if it is lower than expected, it is also a big negative impact. Therefore, for Moutai and the liquor sector, we can be optimistic about the growth of data, but we must also have some cautious thoughts, because the expectations of this industry are relatively high, and if it cannot be reached, it may be counterattacked.
And then extend to talk about consumption, I also see a lot of financial articles saying that they are optimistic about this year's consumption, but I also see a lot of social articles saying that everyone has no money to consume, just like the recent CCTV teacher Bai said in the program that "the people dare not spend money" caused controversy, many netizens said that we have no money to spend, I personally agree with the views of netizens, my personal feeling is that the salary income is not as good as last year, and the people around me and my own consumption are downgrading, a lot** I don't really care much about the slogan and policy of Fei, but I care about how to make money and how to save money, so I still don't agree with the consumption of this area, which many people say will break out this year, and this direction is not my current investment focus.
Overseas marketIn the past year, the world has been in full swing, and the United States, Japan, France, Germany, India and other places have reached record highs, especially the Dow Jones index, S&P 500 index and Nasdaq index in the United States, respectively. 23% and 4342%, which stands out among the world's major stock indexes.
The prosperity of the U.S. market is partly due to the cooling of inflation expectations, which means that the pressure on prices has been reduced, and the possibility of a soft landing of the economy has increased.
The performance of Japan** is also quite impressive, and the best results in a decade have given investors a glimpse of the light of day;India's ** has set a record for eight consecutive years, which reflects the country's continued economic growth and increased market confidence. In Europe, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and other countries also hit a record high, which undoubtedly brought more opportunities to investors, these countries have a solid economic foundation and stable corporate profitability, which provides strong support for the long-term development of the country.
For us ordinary investors, this is undoubtedly an opportunity worth seizing, but there are also certain risks involved in investing in overseas markets, so it is recommended that you do sufficient research and risk assessment before investing, and in addition, it is also a wise choice to diversify your investments to reduce risks.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the analysis of the indices and ** involved does not constitute any investment and application advice.
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