**The economic work conference is over, and the economic work in 2023 is summarized, and the economic work in 2024 is also set. Regarding real estate, it also took a lot of space to tell, and it was mentioned in the fifth point of the "2024 Economic Work Priorities" to continue to effectively prevent and resolve risks in key areas:
It is necessary to coordinate and resolve risks such as real estate, local debts, and small and medium-sized financial institutions, severely crack down on illegal financial activities, and resolutely adhere to the bottom line of preventing systemic risks.
Actively and prudently resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Accelerate the construction of affordable housing, the construction of public infrastructure for both ordinary and emergency purposes, and the transformation of urban villages.
Improve relevant basic systems and accelerate the construction of a new model of real estate development.
Three important pieces of information can be extracted from this passage:
First, we should focus on resolving the risks of real estate. The biggest risk of real estate is the debt crisis of real estate companies, due to the downturn of the market and financing problems, real estate companies have a liquidity crisis, and debt defaults are endless. Next year, the focus on resolving real estate risks will be to solve the debt crisis of real estate companies.
As I said in my previous article, at the end of last year and this year, the focus of the property market policy was to stimulate the release of demand by reducing the down payment ratio and loan interest rate, canceling purchase restrictions and other measures, so as to drag the market up first, or at least stabilize it, so as not to continue to decline. And the focus from the end of this year to next year should be to solve the debt problem of real estate companies.
How to solve it?It is mentioned here that to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, that is, to gradually realize the normalization of financing channels for real estate enterprises.
Second, the dual-track housing system continues to advance. Although the real estate market has encountered difficulties in development, the dual-track housing system has become an important housing system, and it is still necessary to promote it. Therefore, the meeting also specifically mentioned that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of affordable housing, and the return of housing to the attributes of people's livelihood needs to rely more on affordable housing.
At the same time, the transformation of urban villages in megacities mentioned this year is expected to accelerate in 2024, which may be a new engine for the development of the real estate industry in the coming period, and the transformation and renovation of the incremental market is an important direction for future real estate development.
The third is to improve the relevant basic systems. What exactly does this mean, it depends on the official further interpretation. In my opinion, the basic system of the real estate market should include the affordable housing system, the same right to rent and sell, real estate tax, etc. However, there is no mention of real estate tax this time, so it is more about deepening and improving some basic systems.
Next year's real estate development route is basically very clear, focusing on resolving risks, while promoting the construction of affordable housing and the transformation of urban villages, and then improving the relevant basic systems. Got it?