We have never talked so intensively about debt, which shows that debt has really become a problem.
Different angles have different concerns.
From a policy perspective, how to resolve local debts, to the top, to complain, to ask for financial rights, and to focus on the distribution ratio of corporate taxesDownward, we will spare no effort to expand the types of taxes that are exclusive to the local government and strive to get rid of the power of affairs, and in this way, we will constitute the diversion of fiscal debts in the future.
However, the bigger problem is that no matter how many means there are to reduce debt, it is necessary to establish a virtuous circle of economic growth, otherwise it will become a debt stack, and the profits of future generations will be eaten up and spent in advance.
For a long time in the past, there was a relative balance between the growth of China's ** debt scale and economic growth.
* Debt can generate certain economic benefits and promote economic growth, and as long as the economy continues to grow healthily and in larger size, debt risk will be relatively converging. This is what we've been talking about for years, the so-called "debt growth driver." ”
This drive model has finally been challenged
The debt-driven model will certainly be challenged, because our fiscal revenue, which is far more than the corporate tax, and half of the local government depends on land transfer funds.
After the pandemic, China's economic growth stalled;Is it a problem with the pandemic?Of course not, as a phenomenon, the effects of the pandemic will soon pass;Although the year has become a turning point for China's economy, the root cause is not the epidemic.
The 100,000 people meeting in May was a gesture of all-out effort to redeem the price paid by China's economy in the epidemic and to exhaust the policies that could be exhausted. This year's plan should be stable, because with a very weak year-on-year comparison, next year's expectations will definitely fall, and will be far lower than Lin Yifu's potential, and almost all institutions have adjusted the growth rate to This indicates that China's economy has ended a period of high growth.
The rotation of economic growth has stalled, and the direct pressure is the downward trend in the real estate market, and the sharp decline in land transfer fees, which determines that "the debt-growth driving model will be out of balance."
No matter which expert it is, when it comes to debt, it will first reassure the reader.
I believe that compared with developed countries, the overall size of our full-caliber debt is not high. The trouble lies in China's statistics, which are too politically correct, and a lot of data is "none", and no expert in the country knows how big the scale of local hidden debts isKnowing only that it is "very large", some people speculate that the scale of explicit and implicit debt is about trillions, which is GDP Even so, this figure is still lower than that of many advanced economies, for example, the United States exceeds Japan
However, the data does not reflect the underlying logic of economic problems, and what is the underlying logic of China's debt?
There are at least two points worth mentioning:
First, the accumulation of local debts is inevitable.
Because local government debt is mainly due to the real estate recession, the dependence of local finance on real estate is a hard indicator, and the above expenditure comes from real estate;It is not this year that the crisis has been crossed by turning long-term debt into short-term debt;Real estate sales will not rise next year, and a new round of debt will be added up. During the year, there was no sector weighting that could replace real estate.
What is the situation of real estate in China?Needless to say, the future is long.
If the real estate problem is not solved, there will be no "debt growth driving model", only a decreasing driving model.
Second, the overall economic context is overcapacity.
Since it is overcapacity, it means that the economy will enter a weak recovery cycle.
Without the backdrop of high economic growth, the "debt-driven model" is likely to be the "lost thirty years". It is not a partial, structural problem of a clear mismatch between financial power and administrative power in the local general public budget;If the real estate is not good, you can ask for financial power, but if the economy as a whole is not good, then you have to increase the power of local affairs.
The question arises, how to maintain rapid economic growth?
In general, it depends on private enterprises, what do private enterprises look at?
Look at the degree of marketization, and cancel the non-market-oriented business privileges in any sense. We must ideologically distinguish between public and private "hierarchy", and we must define public ownership as good and private ownership as evil.
Tao Te Ching Chapter 2: The world knows that beauty is beauty, and evil is evil.