There are three different signals in the property market, and insiders are once again discouraging home purchases
It's also a treat to see information spread across the screen.
Therefore, Xu Gao, chief economist of Bank of China International and professor of the National School of Development of Peking University, said that the pressure on housing prices in the future is very high, because compared with the peak in 2021, the area under construction of real estate has been halved, and the area of new construction has decreased by two-thirds, and the future housing will be very tight. He suggested that the financing ability and investment willingness of real estate developers should be restored as soon as possible, and the construction of houses should be stepped up to solve the contradiction between housing supply and demand in the future, otherwise housing prices will be inevitable.
These words seem to be out of step with the current property market context. The market is obviously very weak, according to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, it is simply a general decline, and according to the latest data in November, the second-hand housing ** has further exacerbated the month-on-month decline. The reason why Professor Xu is so surprising is actually useful"Supply and demand are determined**"This is one of the basic principles of modern microeconomics, which is very simple. But relying only on this point to judge the trend of a thing is actually one-sided, and it will even backfire.
Honestly, anyone can also judge the building market, because many people are both experimenters and beneficiaries, and after more than 20 years of ups and downs, everyone seems to have summed up some regular things. Using past experience to extrapolate the future is something that many of us do on a regular basis. But there is another saying that the future is never a simple repetition of history. Looking at future trends with outdated thinking is undoubtedly an escape. The correct approach is to look at both history and changes in key factors, and most importantly, to make a comprehensive judgment. As far as the real estate market is concerned, if nothing else, there will be three outcomes.
To assess where the real estate market is headed, you need to analyze the 3 factors that determine the rise and fall of home prices.
1. Housing**. According to Zhuge housing data, in the first half of 2023, the national land transfer area will drop by 37%, and although the data has not yet been released in the second half of the year, judging from the performance of 300 city land auctions, the land auction market has further declined, although the overall land transfer area is not as much as Professor Xu said 2 3 declines, but about 50% is still there. But we know that the national land auction area in 2022 has also decreased by more than 50% compared to 2021, according to the first 6-month and 1-year opening cycle, shouldn't this affect the market in 2023**It can be seen that not only did it not affect the market, but this year's market is not as good as in 2022, why?The reason is in point 2 below.
2) Housing needs. Although Professor Xu used the economic theory of supply and demand in the opening chapter, he really only talked about supply, leaving aside demand, and if his results are true, then housing demand in 2023 and beyond should remain at the same level as in previous years. However, there is clearly a significant drop in real demand:
According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2022.
First-, second- and third-tier cities saw a decrease in the area of new home transactions. 6 and 348. The transaction area in 2023 will further decrease by 30% compared with 2022. The area of land transfer has decreased significantly, and the market has not experienced an imbalance between supply and demand due to the decrease in the number of housing **, on the contrary, the inventory of new homes has further increased to 6400 million square meters, still 11 square meter, an increase of 207%。
In fact, this illustrates the fact that while ** is significantly low, demand is falling faster than **. This shows that the property market transaction volume of 1.8 billion square meters in 2021 is not a normal market, and there is an element of speculation and speculation, and in 2022 and 2023, the market demand will finally gradually return to normal. In 2022, it fell to 13500 million square meters, 9200 million square meters, the overall estimate is only within 1.1 billion square meters, which is consistent with the industry's largest commercial housing transaction area of only 10-1.2 billion square meters in the next five years. This is normal market demand, as housing is not speculative. Therefore, it is an empirical mistake to extrapolate future housing supply and demand from past transacted areas.
3.Housing policy.
As an important part of clothing, food, housing and transportation, housing is related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and there is no country that does not attach importance to housing policy. So, when looking at the real estate market, we have to look at the political direction of the real estate market. Not to mention the past, now and in the future, the country's tone for housing includes two, one is that housing is not speculation;The second is to promote the healthy and stable development of the property market. I don't know if you are aware of a problem, now many cities are relaxing the demand side of buying houses, what to issue housing subsidies, increase the amount of provident fund loans, reduce the interest rate of the first home loan, etc., only for the down payment ratio of the second house, the interest rate of more than two sets of housing or the implementation of stricter differentiated credit, the goal is very clear, do not support the speculation of multiple suites, I think the future market is good, its relaxation will be limited.
Healthy and stable development, the market is hot to suppress, cold is pulled, we have accumulated a wealth of experience in regulation and control in the past 20 years, the future is difficult to appear like the past soaring situation, of course, will not let the market fall freely, in case of stability. This year's market decline is more obvious, before the state pointed out that this year's property market policy optimization frequency has exceeded 1,000 times, and has been in the land market, commercial housing, developers to provide liquidity, demand side housing stimulation and other aspects to give all-round support, the goal is also clear, to pull the market back to normal.
Considering the above trends, understand the advice, don't buy a house indiscriminately, the property market trend next year is gradually clear, if nothing else, there will be 3 results or will be a high probability event.
First of all, there is no doubt that the demand for real estate has fallen into equilibrium.
There is not much to say about this question, mainly because we are getting older and it is clear that there are now 2 people over 60 years old800 million, an increase of almost 1 percentage point per year, and most of them will not buy any more houses. The number of newborns, which fell from 16 million or 17 million five years ago, fell to 9.56 million last year and should be even lower this year. Some people also say that the property market has picked up, yes"Green and yellow"The situation, although this statement is a bit exaggerated, newborns will not necessarily decline, but housing demand is indeed in a significant decline in the nail households, according to the previous industry level estimates, even if the property market picks up, compared with the current low, there are still 10%-15% or even more demand to recover. If demand increases by about 15%, that's a good thing, but you can't expect too much.
Secondly, more and more houses have lost their financial attributes and have a residential function, but they cannot be considered as assets.
Housing is not speculation, it is not an empty word, it is the trend of the times. The state has decided to plan and build a large number of affordable housing in the future to ensure that everyone has a house to live in, which does have an impact on our traditional commercial housing market, because we have a history of rapid development of commercial housing for more than 20 years and a large number of constructions"High turnover"Housing, the quality of the house type may not be better than the new generation of affordable housing, for some rigid needs, they have more choices. For some new demanders, they have more options, they can rent or buy state-provided affordable housing, which to a certain extent alienates the original low-quality potential customers. That's why I often say that in the future, many old and poor quality commercial houses, coupled with bad locations, banks don't like to resell loans, and young people don't like the old pattern, these houses can only be used as temporary rental houses for a few people, and it is difficult to find customers when they change hands, let alone negotiate.
Third, a good house is sold by a rich man to a rich man. This sentence was said by the industrialist Cao Dewang. Let's start with a set of data:
Compared to last year, the number of units sold for products under 90 square meters in Shanghai decreased by 345%, while the number of units sold for products of 90-200 square meters increased by 37%。A similar situation was seen in Xi'an, where two figures fell by 79% and an increase of 124%。
The general environment of the property market is not good, but the volume of large transactions has shown positive growth, what does this mean?It is clear that the need for improvement is gradually increasing. There is only one reason: with the increase of people's economic income level, the demand for improved housing is also increasing, although the area is not necessarily equal to the housing ***, but at least it shows that there is a trend, indicating that they are willing to spend more money to improve their demand for housing area.
In addition, national policies are increasingly supportive of improved demand. As some time ago, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development proposed"Housing is set by the people"That is, don't build so many houses, build a good house, green environmental protection and other requirements are proposed, and adopt the parallel model of housing and commercial housing, commercial housing to highlight the commodity attributes, obviously can not always lose the quality of the house, financial attributes, to put it bluntly, it is a good house!The financial attributes of the house are increasingly emphasized. For this kind of house, ordinary people can't afford it, so they can only sell it to wealthy people, relying on inheritance, or anti-inflation, which is its correct meaning.
List of quality authors.