Project Sword
In 2024, more than 50 countries and regions around the world will hold ** or parliamentary elections. Among them, the election results of the United States, Russia and India will affect the whole world, and in addition to the "great power competition", there are other competitions.
2024 can be described as the "year of global elections", and the elections in these 50 countries and regions will reach 2 billion people.
In the face of the rise of populism and far-right forces in many countries, foreign investment and immigration policies may be curtailed, impacting the concept of "globalization". This election year could usher in a very different era for the global environment.
Putin announced his candidacy for the 2024** electionsAs mentioned earlier, there are three countries that will stand out in next year's elections: the United States, Russia, and India. The election results of these three countries are bound to affect the changes in the world situation to a great extent.
Russia and India are actually not too difficult to turn out**, Putin and Modi both have relatively stable high approval ratings, and the impact on the outcome may be whether Russia will be variable on the battlefield. If, before the election, the Russian army makes a major mistake on the battlefield, the impact on Putin could be very large.
And Modi's variable is whether he will make a mistake in decision-making and set off populism to consolidate support. You know, in the past few times when he needed to consolidate the hearts and minds of the people, Modi either attacked the country's minorities or stirred up trouble on the border. This is a double-edged sword, and to a certain extent, it does achieve the goal of "uniting" the majority of Hindus, but it poses a huge threat to regional peace.
Especially if Modi provokes an armed conflict on the Sino-Indian border, the consequences will be very serious.
Modi's campaign to build momentum in the United States is still difficult to determine. Trump's comeback is very strong, but the mainstream of the United States does not like Trump, and it has a great influence on Trump.
The Democratic Party has also used political means to suppress Trump, such as the Colorado Supreme Court, which ruled that Trump is not eligible for the party primary in the 2024 U.S. ** election.
However, Trump's popularity is still high, which is very bad for the Democratic Party. And there are many internal problems within the Democratic Party, on the one hand, Biden is obviously not the ideal candidate for the Democratic Party, and the American people have a lot of complaints about him, coupled with the 80-year-old age, these will greatly affect Biden's election. But the Democrats now can't find a replacement other than Biden.
On the other hand, the Democratic Party's Palestinian-Israeli conflict and economic policies have aroused dissatisfaction among the American people. Recent polls show that Democratic voters' favorability of Biden has fallen to its lowest level since taking office.
Whether Biden or Trump comes to power is likely to have a direct impact on the US strategy in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. The two have diametrically opposed strategic concepts, so the outcome of this US election is quite crucial to the world situation.
Trump and Biden debated in the last ** election that 2024 is not only a "** year", but also a key year for international competition. In addition to the "great power competition" that has attracted wide attention, some competitions that are easy to ignore are also very worthy of attention.
The intensification of the current geopolitical conflict has strengthened the trend of global polarization. In 2024, the global geopolitical environment will show a trend of multipolarization. In addition to the influence of the United States, the European Union, and China, countries such as India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, South Africa, and Brazil will also further demonstrate their strength on the international political stage.
In addition, some smaller countries and regional organizations, such as Yemen, Azerbaijan, Venezuela, and others, are also seeking change to build their geopolitical influence.
Although the scale of competition or conflict in which these countries or organizations are involved is relatively small, it can still have an unexpected impact on the global **chain system. For example, the Houthis in Yemen have almost single-handedly directly influenced the Suez Canal, one of the most important international waterways, and Azerbaijan and Venezuela have directly constrained the strategic development of major powers such as the United States and Russia in territorial disputes with neighboring stewards.
With the rapid decline of Western hegemony, the old international order is collapsing at an unimaginable rate, and a new multi-level world is gradually emerging. 2024 may be a year that will be written into the history books, or it may be the beginning of the "great changes unseen in a century" out of the historical exit.