"Why did it come to this point?"Is GEM okay?“
This is the question that my fans ask me the most this year, after all, no one would have thought that the GEM index, which was still prosperous a few years ago, has now hit new lowsIt has lost almost 50% from its highs
Data**: wind;As of 202312.21
But then again, the opportunities are all falling out, and the current GEM position is low enough and cheap enough, is it worth everyone to look forward to it at this critical point in 2024?
I think it's worth looking forward to!
Appearance: The brilliance of GEM is no moreI don't think so!
In fact, I am not writing this article to wash the GEM. However, in addition to complaining, what we need to do is to find out whether the GEM has a chance to hit the bottom, which is the most important thing.
Is there a chance?My opinion is:There is a chance!
(1) Large funds change the direction of the new energy
The fundamental reason why the GEM has been able to continue in the past two years is that the performance of new energy is not good, which has also directly affected the GEM
The bell must be tied to the bell!If you want to stop the trend of the gem, then the most important thing is to solve the problem of the new energy sector or the leader of the industrial chain, so that they can stop falling, as long as the new energy takes the lead, the gem believes that it is a matter of time.
How to solve it?Recently, there is a solution that may work, and that isBig money is starting to buy again
I don't know if you have found out, the last time a big money entered the market, it is different from the past, in the past, it will only be ** banks, insurance and brokerages These financial heavyweight stocks, or liquor, infrastructure and other ** blue chip stocks, these have no stimulating effect on the GEM, and sometimes they may also play a reverse role in stimulating.
And this time, these big funds have been directly soldThe old track led by new energy and science and technology, directly so that the new energy obviously has the best momentum, and the gem has also been driven to turn red!To be honest, I think this may be a good start and catalyst for the GEM, and I think there are experts behind this operation!(The masters behind the GEM are very powerful, refer to the beginning of the GEM bull market at the end of 2012).
(2) Institutions are optimistic about the A** field in 2024
We also need to know that the trend of the GEM is closely related to the market environment of A-shares next year.
I am not a professional and have no way to give a professional judgment, but I took a look at the views given by various brokerages, and most of them are optimistic about the A** market in 2024, and the industry that everyone is optimistic about is also more favorable to the GEM.
For example, Haitong ** thinksIn 2024, there will be more opportunities than risks in the A** field, and you can pay attention to the over-falling in the early stageBiomedicine, new energy sector
For example, investment promotion ** thinksIn 2024, with the moderate recovery of the domestic economy and the upward trend of corporate earnings, the improvement of the internal and external environment will drive a moderate net inflow of funds, and A-shares are expected to riseMajor broad-based indicesHopefully**;
Another example is Ping An** thinksAt present, the environment of "domestic policy easing + emerging industry catalysis continues + overseas easing transactions heat up" is still conducive to the growth style, and it is recommended to pay attention to the continuous benefit of industrial catalysis and active policy effortsTMT, medicine, smart carsand other technology growth sectors.
If you look like this from the outside, the GEM is not hopeless, on the contrary, it seems"The help is greater than the resistance".This is very important for investors and Mr. Market, after all, it is a mature market that has been running for more than ten years, and the GEM has a great influence. 
Interior: In the heart of the GEM, there is still a flame
Although it looks okay on the outside, there are real problems on the inside!
(1) Can new energy + medicine be extremely Tailai?
Asking whether the GEM is still saved, to a large extent, is asking the GEM with the highest weightPower equipment and new energywithMedicineThere is no salvation for the two industries.
Because in the past few years, these two industries have undergone long-term adjustments due to some black swan events, and these two industries are also the two first-level industries with the largest weight on the GEM in recent yearsThe two together accounted for 50%., this influence is too great, so big that the "power of life and death" of the GEM is completely in the hands of these two industries.
Data**: wind;As of 202312.21；The industry is classified as a first-class industry by CITIC.
So, standing in the present and looking back, will new energy and medicine continue to adjust?I don't think so.
Let's start with new energy. New energy is a typical growth industry, the valuation has a strong elasticity, next year to suppress its valuation of the determinant "Federal Reserve interest rate" or will usher in a reversal, even if the problem of new energy overcapacity still exists, but at least will not be as chatter as before the infinite killing valuation.
Let's talk about medicine. The long-term growth drivers of the pharmaceutical industry are mainly from the aging population and the increase in disposable income, which are highly certain and also serve as catalysts for the pharmaceutical industry. Although there will be fluctuations in the short term, the entire pharmaceutical industry is showing a spiraling upward trend, which is predictable, and whether it is innovative drugs or medical devices, with the gradual acceleration of domestic substitution and going overseas, there are actually great opportunities in 2024.
In fact, the industries that should fall on the GEM have basically fallen once, and the valuation is not expensive, but the long-term expectations are still relatively good, which means that if there is no policy downside, it is difficult to make a large amount of ** in the case that the panic disk has come out. (2) The fundamentals of constituent stocks have always been there
In fact, the GEM has been greatly improved in recent years, and many people have said that the fundamentals are not good. But I looked at the earnings of GEM constituents given by Wind**, and I found that there was no such problem.
As shown in the chart below, the constituent stocks of the GEM are:The year-on-year growth rate of revenue or net profit attributable to the parent company will exceed in 2024 and 2025It's amazing.
Because the GEM is occupied by new energy and medicine, these two industries have also been seen in recent years, and there is still this profit expectation, I can only say that it is worthy of being an important vanguard of China's scientific and technological innovation!
Data**: wind;As of 202312.21
(3) The continued influx of capital may drive valuations**
What is the current level of GEM valuation?I can say without exaggerationIt's the lowest point in history!
As of December 21 of this year,The latest valuation of the GEM index is 2702 times, which is at the 0% quantile since the inception of the index. ThisIt means that now is the cheapest time for the GEM to refer to it, and there is no one!
And let's take a look back at the first two historical lows in the history of the gem, and the follow-up has been due to various reasons, and the strength is not small, this time the valuation of the gem has directly come to the lowest in history, to be honest, I have begun to look forward to its return of the king.
Data**: wind;As of 202312.21
And I also observed a phenomenon, that is, since the end of October, northbound funds have been making up for the constituent stocks of the GEM, and the strength is very large, the previous August to October had a large outflow, I don't know if this wave of strong capital effect can catalyze the valuation of the gem index. 
It is worth mentioning that the funds are substantially replenished, inGEM ETF (159915).It's well represented.
I observed,GEM ETF (159915).The latest scale is:403.8.5 billion yuan, and the share of this ** has also climbed all the way since 2021, and the latest share is226.7 billion copies, an all-time high. (Size & Share Data**wind;.)As of 202312.21）
And since December, this ETFThe cumulative turnover is 1853.3 billion yuanThat's a terrifying number. You must know that in this range, there are only 15 ** ETFs with a turnover of more than 10 billion
Data**: wind;As of 202312.21
Those who have been on a roller coaster must know that if you want to enjoy the excitement and speed brought by the roller coaster, you must start from the lowest point first, which is actually the same as the gem. However, I think that the speed of this round of GEM "roller coaster" is not necessarily as fast as before, but at least it is a good, optional car, what do you think?
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