India originally invited Biden of the United States to participate in the India National Day event on January 26, 2024, but was unexpectedly directly rejected by Biden. According to the United States, Biden will deliver his National Day address and will need to focus all his attention on the election mode, so he will not be able to travel to India. This response makes people sigh that no matter what problems Biden encounters, as long as he wants to go, even if it is a civil war, he can overcome difficulties. This answer reflects the declining importance that the White House attaches to the U.S.-India relationship.
Biden**'s refusal may hint at a change in U.S.-India relations. Previously, the U.S.-India relationship was seen as the highlight of the partnership, but recent developments suggest that the White House's expectations for such cooperation have been downgraded. Biden is more focused on internal affairs, especially the bipartisan infighting in the United States over the issue of supporting Israel, which has left Biden with insufficient time and energy to visit India in January. The move is clearly a disappointing outcome for both Biden and U.S.-India relations.
Faced with Biden's absence, India **quickly invited France**MacronParticipate in National Day celebrations. This is because France has a large influence in India, and the Indian army is equipped with a large number of Frenchand equipment. This invitationMacronThe trip to India has the potential to further strengthen the cooperative relationship between India and France, and at the same time provide France with the Indian armyMilitaryEquipment and technology lay the foundation.
For example, France's Dassault Group can offer a range of advancedMilitaryequipment, which will play a positive role in promoting the modernization of the Indian army.
France used to have colonies in Southeast Asia, hence the history of France in the regionGeopoliticsThe influence is still there. This timeMacronThe invitation to India may hint at France's attempt to revisit its past roots in Southeast Asia.
It is worth mentioning that the Indian army is currently equipped with a large number of Frenchand equipment, part of which is already close to being decommissioned. Therefore,MacronThis trip to India is likely to bring in FranceMilitarytechnology and equipment to meet the needs of the modernization of the Indian army.
Recently, China and the Philippines have been in Scarborough ShoalSecond Thomas ReefMaritime disputes in other waters have prompted India to try to strengthen cooperation with the Philippines. India may intend to expand its confrontation with China, gradually expanding its confrontation from its land borders to maritime domains, and possibly even intervening in the South China Sea.
The Philippines has confirmed that it will buy BrahMos from IndiaSupersonicanti-ship missiles, and contacted the US ** fire dealers, trying to buy themf-16Fighters。Philippine Air Force if it can be obtainedf-16, which will greatly increase its air defense. Despite the fact that the Philippine Air Force is equippedf-16Fighter jets cannot gain an advantage over China's modern naval and air forces, but they can strengthen the Philippines' own defense capabilities.
Even if the United States and India are close to the Philippines at the same time, there are many difficulties to overcome if the three sides are to form concrete cooperation. Although there are signs of rupture in US-Indian relations, the two sides will not offend each other and will maintain a semblance of peace. First, the U.S.-India relationship has a strong foundation for cooperation, and the two sides have long maintained regular high-level dialogues to resolve issues in contentious areas. Secondly, from the point of view of the United States, the strategic foundation for India is solid, competition with China is a priority for the United States, and the United States needs a close partner. Finally, the United States is not limited by morals and values when choosing strategic partners.
However, India's involvement in the South China Sea is unlikely. First of all, IndiaNavyIt is not yet possible to support activities in the South China Sea. IndiaNavyEfforts are also needed to expandIndian Oceanarea of control, distanceNavyThere is still a long way to go in the construction goals, so there are not enough forces to use in the South China Sea.
In addition, the border dispute between India and China has been unresolved, and the two sides have often clashed in the border area. India's needs will be limitedMilitaryResources are concentrated in border areas to cope with the confrontation with China. As a result, India does not have the resources and energy to intervene in the South China Sea, especially directly with ChinaMilitaryAntagonism.
In addition, India also needs to take into account its relationship with ChinaEconomyRelationship. China is one of India's largest partners, and India's dependence on China is very high. Despite the fact that India is with ChinaGeopoliticsThere are tensions on the side, but inEconomyThe two sides still have close ties. Therefore, India needs to weigh upEconomyinterests andGeopoliticsinterests, considering the risks and rewards of intervening in the South China Sea.
To sum up, although India is trying to strengthen cooperation with the Philippines and may intervene in the affairs of the South China Sea, it is not due to itselfMilitaryresources andChinese bordersThe issue of limitations, as well as on ChinaEconomyConsidering the relationship, it is unlikely that India will actually intervene in the South China Sea. At the same time, relations between India and the United States are also somewhat restricted, and cooperation between the two countries may be subject to some difficulties.