**: Insight economy
The 2023 World Economic Forum was held in Beijing on 17 December 2023. Liu Yuanchun, President of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and Co-founder of China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF), attended and delivered a speech.
Liu Yuanchun pointed out several factors affecting the slowdown in global economic growth. First, at present, the decline in global productivity has led to a decline in the rate of economic growth, and the rate of growth in labor productivity is actually slowing down in every country. Second, the "de-risking" of some countries has led to a decline in global technology**, which in turn has led to a slower growth rate of global technological progress than expected. "The most obvious manifestation of this is the sharp decline in the volume of global chip transactions, semiconductor transactions and other high-tech transactions." Third, the global application scenarios and corresponding expansion of new technologies have slowed down compared with before the epidemic, and the most important reflection is the decline in the number of global patented technologies. "These factors have led to a weaker-than-expected labor productivity due to technological progress, which is the factor that leads to low growth," Liu said.
He also believes that some key long-term factors have also changed, such as population issues, industrial chain and chain reconstruction, anti-globalization, the expansion of climate costs brought about by carbon reduction, and the impact of geopolitical risks on the cost of national defense and defense spending caused by various countries.
Liu Yuanchun pointed out that global inflation was 9 last year2% level, reaching an all-time high. "Everyone's ** global inflation is likely to start from 9 last yearThe 2% level fell back to around the 5% level. The decline in inflation is of course good news for global economic growth and the reduction of the cost of living for low-income people, but we will also see that the stickiness of inflation is still very strong. There is still a relatively long time to return to the target values of various countries", he said, such as the IMF, OECD and other institutions** It will actually take another year for global inflation to return to pre-pandemic levels. "What is clear is that the world is in a new process of de-inflation, de-inflation, de-interest rates," he said.
Liu Yuanchun pointed out that the subsidies brought by the "Infrastructure Act", "Inflation Reduction Act" and "Chip Technology Act" passed by the United States have not been completely exhausted, and this subsidy effect may affect the growth rate of China's exports to the United States and China's exports to the European Union in the past two years.
However, with the disappearance of these policy subsidies, and the fact that some of the costs in the middle of reindustrialization are reduced at a much lower rate than in China, it may lead to some 'unfinished projects' in the United States", Liu Yuanchun believes, "The United States also carried out reindustrialization in the 80s, but in the end it ended in failure, the reason is very simple, that is, whether the use of political power can achieve the feasibility of business and the feasibility of cost competition, from the current research is very difficult."
Liu Yuanchun believes that in the process of continuous decline in the growth rate, because the reconstruction of the industrial chain and the first chain will definitely achieve phased results, the results of this stage are the further tearing of the world's multilateral system, and the potential of the world's most advanced tradition will be further weakened, resulting in the emergence of a new pattern of short-term industrial chain and chain in the middle of high costs.
Generally speaking, the cost is rising, the scale is declining, and the efficiency is declining", he stressed that in the next five years, China needs to comprehensively reposition and rethink its policies and strategies.
Liu Yuanchun said that in response to the changes in the global economy next year and the year after next, we must not only think from a macro perspective, growth, inflation, interest rate policy, fiscal policy, debt, debt chain, industrial chain, and first chain, but also think deeply about the variation of the super structure, and the changes in business feasibility and business competition model brought about by the continuous political layout, "This thinking is the basis for our strategic relayout and deepening."
The past five years have been a stage of political restructuring of the global chain and value chain, and the next five years must be five years of political restructuring and competitiveness testing," he said.