Approaching the Spring Festival, many annual reports are expected to increase, and stock prices have strengthened.
On January 9, the clothing company Taiping Bird (603877SH) stock price rose to a limit of one word, closing at 1610 yuan shares, with a market value of 76$2.9 billion.
Interestingly, just yesterday, the company's stock price approached the fall limit, falling by more than 9%, and today there was a scene of the gap limit, which made investors feel funny, what happened behind this?
In order to cash out, the company released a good "hedge".
Here's the thing, after last Friday's trading, Peacebird issued an announcement that Mr. Chen Hongchao, a shareholder, plans to do not exceed 8.7 million shares of the company in total through centralized bidding transactions and block transactions, and the total number of shares to be held by him does not exceed 25% of the total number of shares of the company and does not exceed 1 of the total number of shares of the company84%。
According to the data, Chen Hongchao used to be the director and general manager of Peacebird, and he is considered a veteran, as of January 6, he held about 7 shares of the company38%, the reason for this ** is said to be due to personal capital needs, and the announcement is more cautious, but in such a market background, the bearish will only be amplified. On Monday, Peacebird's share price fell sharply, and investors voted with their feet.
But soon, the company showed a "big killer". Peacebird expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 41.5 billion yuan, an increase of 23 billion yuan, a significant increase of about 125% year-on-year, and it is expected to achieve a non-net profit of 2 in 20237.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year turnaround.
As soon as the company's stock price was announced, it immediately threw out the announcement of the expected increase in performance, which shows that the management cares for the stock price, and it can also be regarded as a risk "hedge" for the follow-up smoothness.
Combing through the past, in the first two years, Peacebird's performance continued to decline, and in 2021, the company recorded a net profit attributable to the parent company of 67.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 499%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022 was 18.5 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 72 percent year-on-year73%, a sharp plunge in profits.
In the whole year of 2022, under the repeated impact of the epidemic, the company's offline sales have been significantly impacted, the first-class chain system is disordered, and the company has handed over the "worst report card" since its listing.
The company's stock price has also been sharply adjusted, since the second half of 2021, the stock price has accumulated about 7% in more than a year, and the trend is like a "roller coaster".
Entering 2023, consumption is still weak, and the macro recovery is less than expected, data show that in the first 11 months, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in China's garment industry fell by 8 percent year-on-year3%。
In this context, it is not easy for Peacebird to set sail again and record a substantial increase in performance, which shows the company's resilience.
Reversing the decline in performance, the company "reduced costs and increased efficiency" to turn the tide
According to public information, Peacebird is a fashion clothing retail enterprise with a multi-brand matrix development, including Peacebird**, Peacebird**, Leding (ledin**) children's clothing (Mini Peace children's clothing), etc., each brand for different customer groups, can be described as complementary advantages.
How did Peacebird achieve a reversal of profitability last year, relying on "reducing costs and increasing efficiency" and "opening up sources and reducing expenditures".
On the one hand, after experiencing rapid expansion in the past few years, the company began to accelerate the closure of inefficient stores and continued to optimize its channels. According to the data, in the first three quarters of 2023, Peacebird closed 970 stores and opened 356 new stores, with a total decrease of 614 stores, of which the number of franchised stores with poor management was the mainstay, with a total net decrease of nearly 400.
The reduction in stores has led to a decline in revenue, and the company expects revenue to decline by about 9% year-on-year in 2023, while operating expenses will also decline by about 9% year-on-year.
Obviously, Peacebird is reviewing its past channel scale growth strategy, and the company may focus on the efficiency of its stores in the future.
In addition, in the first three quarters of 2023, Peacebird's sales expenses were 1969.5 billion yuan, compared with 23.3 in the same period last year5.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of about 1633%, the annual report data has not yet been released, but the company does not dare to be bold in celebrity endorsements.
On the other hand, in the past few years, with the expansion of channels and the impact of the epidemic, Peacebird's inventory backlog has also led to frequent discounts, hurting its own first-class system and brand image.
Since the beginning of this year, the company has strictly controlled the discount rate of new products in the current season, and the retail discount rate of other official direct stores in the online channel has been increased except for Vipshop, and the offline channel has clearly distinguished between full-price stores and outlets, with regular-priced stores strictly controlling the discount rate, and outlets are responsible for the handling of out-of-season goods.
Guaranteed retail discounts, not selling "bargains", the company's profitability has been thickened. According to the announcement, in 2023, the company expects the gross profit margin of sales to increase by 6 percentage points year-on-year, which is a major "hero" behind the profit forecast.
In recent years, the company has continued to cooperate with IP co-branded and original designers related to Chinese culture, such as the Peacebird** and Sanxingdui National Treasure Co-branded Series, Lecho and Dunhuang Museum Co-branded Series, etc., and the future product competitiveness is expected to continue to improve and sales are expected to improve.
Conclusion - Peacebird's 2023 performance forecast is the first forecast for the apparel industry, and in the current consumption environment, the company mainly relies on tightening its belts to optimize operational efficiency. According to some brokerage institutions, 2023 is the first year of Peacebird's organizational change, and the company may come out of the trough of performance, with its current dynamic price-earnings ratio of about 27 times, and in the long run, the valuation level is still at the bottom.
It is worth mentioning that the performance of many listed clothing companies was also optimistic last year, and the investment value of the entire sector began to be highlighted. Among them, SAINT ANGELO (002154SZ), Heilan House (600398sh), seven wolves (002029SZ) and other companies have achieved double-digit growth in net profit in the first three quarters, and the annual reports of related companies may as well look at the first line.
Author: Flying Fish.