In 2023, the economic data of the first three quarters of the world will be released, among which India's economic growth is unbeatable, becoming the fastest growing country among the world's major countries.
According to data released by the Bureau of Statistics India, in the first three quarters of 2023, the preliminary statistical results of the nominal GDP completed by the whole society in India were 2141442Rs 900 crore, compared to the same period last year, after excluding all goods and services***, achieved 7A real increase of 1 percent, higher than the World Bank's 6With 3% of the world's GDP, India's economy is on the fast track and is now the fifth largest in terms of GDP in the world.
However, YOFOTO feels that although India's economic development momentum is good, there is a huge hidden danger, and this hidden danger may lead to India becoming the first target of this round of US interest rate hikes.
In the past year, the US dollar has raised interest rates from 0% to the current 525%, at the latest interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve announced that it would maintain the current 525%-5.The target range of 50% of the federal** interest rate remains unchanged, and the second consecutive pause in interest rate hikes makes it clear that the U.S. interest rate hike is nearing the end, which means that the U.S. harvest is about to begin, and the scythe of the dollar harvest has been raised.
Of course, it is said that it is harvested in dollars, but it is not that the leeks of which one will be harvested, but which one's leek garden fence is not firmly decided, this fence is the country's financial strength, the most direct point is the foreign exchange reserves, which is the bullet that can resist financial attacks, because China has the most abundant foreign exchange reserves in the world, so the United States has nothing to do with China for the time being, and can only downgrade the sovereign credit rating to disgust, but India is different, it is likely to be killed by the stock and bond exchange, and it will be taken away directly in a wave.
India**: 20 years of bull market.
On the morning of December 6, India's market capitalization exceeded $4 trillion for the first time, second only to the United States, China, Japan and Hong Kong, India** is also one of the best performers in Asia and even emerging markets in 2023**, with the main benchmark stock index NIFTY50, up more than 13% this year.
In 2001, China and India both started at 2,000 points, and more than 20 years have passed, they have risen for 8 consecutive years, directly climbing to 69,000 points today, more than 20 years ** has increased more than 30 times, while China ** is still hovering at 3,000 points, which is indeed enviable.
According to Bloomberg statistics, since the low point of the epidemic in March 2020, the market capitalization of the two Indian exchanges** has doubled, and if the current rally is maintained until the end of the year, India** will set an unprecedented eight-year winning streak.
Such a crazy rise in **, people can't help but think of Thailand before the Asian financial crisis, 1984-1987 three years of nearly 100%, to 1989 is a record high of 38,915 points, from 10,000 points to nearly 40,000 points, 5 years of cumulative increase of nearly 300%, and then the crisis broke out** plummeted.
Today's India is very similar, what is even more incredible is that India is very open, foreign individual investors can directly participate, capital in and out is very free, 70% of India is foreign capital, India can reach such a height, foreign capital is indispensable!
Foreign capital can enter freely, which is equivalent to a complete defense against foreign investment, and economic activity also means huge risks.
And Wall Street capital has already shot, the former richest man in India, Adani's business empire Adani Group, was shorted by a well-known short-selling institution in the United States, in less than a week, the market value of the Adani Group founded by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has evaporated by $108 billion, his personal assets have shrunk by more than $50 billion, and he has been taken the crown of the richest man in Asia and the richest man in India, and has fallen to the top 20 on the Forbes rich list.
Not only that, but India has seen a large outflow of foreign capital, according to the National Corporation of India, foreign investors have sold off nearly 2 trillion rupees of financial assets, which is more than double the amount during the '08 financial crisis, which is much worse than expected.
India's external debt is rising.
Before the pandemic, India's debt levels were already high, with debt at nearly 70% of GDP, a figure higher than the 60% debt ceiling recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and higher than the average for other emerging market countries. India's debt-to-GDP ratio is 88 percent in 2023, reaching 155 trillion rupees (about 2.), according to India** data$15 trillion), the highest since 1980.
According to the relevant data released by the Central Bank of India in November, India's current foreign exchange reserves are about 550 billion US dollars, and compared with the same period, it has fallen by nearly 15%, and has hit a new low in the past two years.
Since the founding of the People's Republic of China 75 years ago, India's foreign trade has been in a state of deficit for 74 years, and the deficit has been expanding in recent years, with a perennial deficit of more than 100 billion US dollars, which is unimaginable.
According to the Indian Express, data released showed that India's merchandise exports rose by 6 in October21% to 335$700 million. The import value increased to 650 in the monthUS$300 million, compared to an import value of US$579 in October 2022$100 million. In October, India's ** deficit increased from 193 in September$700 million to $314$600 million, a record high.
This will only lead to a rapid decline in India's foreign exchange, which will exacerbate the debt crisis.
None of the rupee orders can save the Indian rupee.
Since the US dollar raised interest rates, the rupee has continued to weaken against the US dollar.
In July 2023, in order to stabilize the exchange rate of the rupee, the Reserve Bank of India officially announced the launch of the international ** rupee settlement mechanism, but the effect is not obvious, according to relevant statistics, as of the end of last month, the Indian rupee has depreciated by 12% against the US dollar this year. And even if you look at the currencies of emerging countries, India's currency depreciation is huge, more than 9% of the average, and the sharp depreciation of the rupee will further widen the deficit, which also means that the debt level will rise.
The harvest script has actually been written, first of all, the withdrawal of foreign capital from the first large number of foreign capital withdraws, the collapse of foreign capital, the withdrawal of foreign capital will consume a large number of India's foreign exchange reserves, resulting in a shortage of dollars, and then the Indian rupee depreciates sharply against the dollar, the depreciation of the rupee will further expand the deficit, and at the same time, the depreciation of the rupee against the US dollar also requires India to repay more US dollar debt, the final result is that India's foreign exchange is not enough to repay the due debts and go bankrupt, in India's current situation, this script is not far away.