**: Market information.
*: Guoyuan** research.
Strategic perspectives. U.S. economic growth momentum weakened, and GDP growth in the third quarter was revised downward to 49%。U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, the PCE price index fell short of expectations, and the core PCE increased by 3 year-on-year2%, the lowest since April 2021. New home sales in the United States fell more than expected in November, with sales hitting a one-year low, home prices falling 6% year-on-year, and inventories continuing to increase. The dollar weakened, approaching a five-month low. This week, we need to pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of December 23, the Chicago PMI in December and the month-on-month retail inventory in November. The U.S. dollar has weakened sharply, rising for two consecutive weeks, and may continue to run strong in the short term.
1. Review.
Last week, it was slightly smaller. A small amount of funds in the main contract of COMEX** is withdrawn. **Slightly**, the main contract of COMEX enters the market with a small amount of funds.
Second, fundamentals.
1. The Federal Reserve FOMC Committee is about to change blood, and the first voting committee will have the upper hand in 2024.
2. Existing home sales in the United States unexpectedly increased in November, home prices rose 4% year-on-year, and mortgage interest rates hit a new low since June.
3. The annualized number of new housing starts in the United States surged by 14 month-on-month in November8% to 1.56 million, far exceeding expectations of 1.36 million and hitting a six-month high.
4. The final value of GDP in the third quarter of the United States was revised down to 49%, the PCE price index cooled.
5. U.S. inflation cooled more than expected in November, and core PCE increased by 3 year-on-year2%, the lowest since April 2021.
3. The U.S. dollar index.
The dollar weakened, approaching a five-month low. U.S. economic growth momentum weakened, and GDP growth in the third quarter was revised downward to 49%。U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, the PCE price index fell short of expectations, and the core PCE increased by 3 year-on-year2%, the lowest since April 2021. New home sales in the United States fell more than expected in November, with sales hitting a one-year low, home prices falling 6% year-on-year, and inventories continuing to increase. This week, we need to pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of December 23, the Chicago PMI in December and the month-on-month retail inventory in November. The U.S. dollar has weakened sharply, rising for two consecutive weeks, and may continue to run strong in the short term.
Fourth, inventory. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange released a report showing that on December 22, 2004, COMEX gold inventories100,000 ounces, a decrease of 2 from the previous week100,000 ounces;Dec. 22 COMEX silver inventory was 27.5 billion ounces, an increase of 523 from the previous week430,000 ounces.
5. ETF holdings.
For the week ended December 22, SPDR holdings stood at 87825 tons, a decrease of 144 tons, the current ** position is basically stable. The open interest in SLV is 1367430 tons, a decrease of 31 compared to the previous week32 tons, the current SLV position is at a relatively low level.
6. CFTC net position.
As of December 19, ** non-commercial long positions were 280972, an increase of 7,436 from last week, non-commercial short positions were 79,633, a decrease of 5,670 from last week, ** net positions increased by 13,106, long entries, short exits, and strong bulls;In the weekly statistical period ending December 19, ** non-commercial long positions were 52,631, a decrease of 3,053 from last week, non-commercial short positions were 22,880, a decrease of 4,346 from last week, ** net positions increased by 1,293, and long and short exited together.
7. Domestic market holdings.
As of the week of December 22, the main ** position of Shanghai Gold was 16740,000 lots, a decrease of 5,281 hands from last week;The main ** position of Shanghai Bank is 38000000 lots, a decrease of 22,398 lots from last week.
8. Technical Analysis.
1 **Last week***slightly**. U.S. economic growth momentum weakened, and GDP growth in the third quarter was revised downward to 49%。U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, the PCE price index fell short of expectations, and the core PCE increased by 3 year-on-year2%, the lowest since April 2021. The dollar weakened, approaching a five-month low. **Rising for two consecutive weeks, the short-term may continue to run strongly. This week, we need to pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of December 23, the Chicago PMI in December and the month-on-month retail inventory in November.
2 **Last week*** US economic growth momentum weakened, and GDP growth in the third quarter exceeded expectations and was revised down to 49%。U.S. inflation cooled more than expected, the PCE price index fell short of expectations, and the core PCE increased by 3 year-on-year2%, the lowest since April 2021. The dollar weakened, approaching a five-month low. **Rising for two consecutive weeks,**Inventory accumulation affected** rally, but under the weak operation of the US dollar** short-term or will continue to run strongly. This week, we need to pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week of December 23, the Chicago PMI in December and the month-on-month retail inventory in November.