In today's society, a high-profile topic is undoubtedly buying, buying, buying. Since February 2023, this focus has been recurring in discussions. In this shopping frenzy, this is an item that cannot be overlooked. But from the point I just mentioned, there is a clear trend.
In the future, the main force of the real estate market will be home buyers, and policy support will be further strengthened. The post-90s and post-00s may become the biggest losers in this wave, but with the clarification of policy positioning, the situation will change. Perhaps we need to re-examine and re-evaluate whether the spring of the post-90s generation is coming again.
Just in early August, the financial community published an article titled Evergrande Insolvency, and soon the news spread to almost everyone. Evergrande is a typical case. By the end of 2022, its total assets had reached 146 trillion, which is quite large under normal circumstances.
The debt ratio has always been regarded as a key factor in the normal operation of developers, and its importance is self-evident. In recent years, high debt ratios have led to the closure of many developers. To solve this problem, the core method is to stabilize the capital chain, and in this regard, discounting ** real estate is the most direct way.
Not only third- and fourth-tier cities, but even second-tier development cities have begun to sell *** properties at % or even 30%. The application of low down payment and low mortgage market interest rates will become the norm, especially in the current situation of high housing prices in China, and the study of these two influencing factors is particularly important.
The down payment ratio and loan interest rate for a second home will be further reduced, and it is important to note that this policy is mainly aimed at first-time home buyers. In terms of age distribution, first-time buyers are mainly concentrated in the 90s and 2000s of the 20th century, which provides them with the opportunity to usher in a new wave of home purchases.
While the down payment ratio changes less, the new policy means that homebuyers may need to make a larger down payment and vice versa. But what's really worrying is mortgage rates, which in 2019 were about 6% if you bought a $2 million new home, and now it's down to around 4%.
While this may seem like a small change, you can save about $1,500 per month on your mortgage over a 30-year loan. The effect is quite significant. The failure to take out a loan further reduces the pressure of buying a house. The difference between accepting and not accepting a loan is sometimes misunderstood.
Let's say you have already bought a house with a loan from a Bank of China, but you moved to Hangzhou in 2022 due to management reasons, and now you want to take out a loan to buy a house again. Due to the previous loan decision, the new home is still considered a second home even if the loan on the previous home has been paid off.
Nowadays, not recognizing a mortgage will help avoid this from happening, as long as you pay off your previous loan, buying a second home is still considered a first home. The policy adjustment is to meet the needs of rigid and improved home buyers, rather than the needs of investors, which is different from what some people think.