This week, A-shares continued to ***Shanghai Composite Index**094% to close at 291478 points, SZSE Component Index **175% closed at 922131 points, GEM refers to **123% to close at 182584 points. The value style sector represents the index SSE 50**112%, CSI 100**032%, CSI 300**013%；The growth style sector represents the small and medium-sized 100**1 in the index95%, CSI 500**253%, CSI 1000**366%。The average daily turnover of the two cities is 71932.6 billion yuan, down 1034%。
Most of the industries closed down this week, and the cycle and some consumer industries were relatively dominant. Among them, coal (+1.0%), power equipment (+0.).8%), household appliances (+0.).7%)Media (-11.)1%), computer (-58%) and social services (-5.).4%). In terms of coal, coal production and transportation in some areas have been greatly affected by snowfall recently, and short-term supply is expected to contract, while the drop in temperature has boosted coal demand, and the prosperity of the sector is expected to improve. In terms of power equipment, overseas household storage PCS is nearing the end of destocking, domestic inverter exports have stabilized and rebounded, and the domestic photovoltaic leader said that its self-developed BC technology has set a new world record for the efficiency of monocrystalline silicon solar cells, boosting the sentiment of the sector. In terms of consumption, with the advent of the year-end holidays, the recovery of the concept of liquor has driven consumption sectors such as home appliances and food and beverages. In terms of TMT, the draft of the Measures for the Administration of Online Games mentions the prohibition of induced rewards and the need to set user deposit limits to curb the sentiment of the sector
In the secondary industry of Shenwan, photovoltaic equipment **383%, shipping port **215%。In the early stage, photovoltaic equipment continued to fall ***383%。Due to recent geopolitical factors, Red Sea shipping has been blocked, and shipping ports this week **215%。
This week, the cumulative net outflow of northbound funds was 223.6 billion yuan, a significant slowdown from last week. The primary industries with the largest net inflows of northbound funds are: power equipment and new energy (35.).9.2 billion yuan), automobiles (129.5 billion yuan), basic chemical industry (102.2 billion yuan);The top outflow of the primary industry is: communications (-19.).0.8 billion yuan), medicine (-13.8.7 billion yuan), non-bank finance (-122.5 billion yuan).
In terms of valuation, the A-share index has the highest historical quantile of PE at the STAR 50 (41.).5%), corresponding to a valuation (44.).9 times);The lowest is the GEM index (0.).0%), corresponding to the valuation (26.).9 times);The highest historical quantile of A-share style PE is consumption (27.).7%), corresponding to a valuation (30.).2 times);The lowest was financial (62%), corresponding to the valuation (6.).7 times). The A-share industry has the highest PE quantile in history as commercial retail (98.).7%), corresponding to the valuation (3931.).4 times);The lowest is power equipment and new energy (0.).3%), corresponding to the valuation (18.).4 times);
From the perspective of the overall market environment, the steady growth of the country continued to exert force this week, and the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts has strengthened. Domestic: The policy will continue to care for the financing needs of enterprises, and the social security will hold a meeting to emphasize the continuous increase in investment in important industries and fields related to the national economy and people's livelihoodAt the symposium of experts on the economic and financial situation, the central bank said that it should focus on cultivating new momentum for development and increasing the increment and proportion of loans in the fields of scientific and technological innovation, private small and micro enterprises, and advanced manufacturingThe National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development was held, and it was again proposed to meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises under different ownership systems. In terms of steady growth, the National Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized that next year, it will implement policies according to the city and one city and one policy to achieve a balance between real estate supply and demand**The Rural Work Conference was held to emphasize the production of grain and important agricultural products to ensure that the grain output in 2024 remains at 1More than 3 trillion catties;The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has optimized and improved the cash dividend and share repurchase system and mechanism. Overseas: The final value of the US GDP in the third quarter was 52% downward revision to 49%, the core PCE price index in the third quarter increased by 23% was lowered to 2%, further strengthening market expectations for interest rate cuts.
There is only one week left in 2023, and 2024 is fast approaching. Looking back on 2022-2023, in addition to the drag of declining earnings, the valuation of A-shares has hit low levels many times, but why has a new round of trend not started?From the perspective of valuation, the current A** field has a high cost performance, but historically, "cost performance" only reflects relative safety, which has never been the reason for the first time. The current market has much more room for upward movement than for downward space, and the "spring agitation" is still expected to open.
Historically, the spring agitation in A-shares** was mainly driven by fundamentals, liquidity, valuation sentiment, policy and external events. Looking back at the trend of A-shares during the spring turmoil since 2010 (from New Year's Day to before the two sessions), it can be seen that: (1) The Shanghai Composite Index has a total of **8 times and **6 times, with mixed gains. (2) The core factors influencing the spring restlessness** are: fundamentals, liquidity, valuation sentiment, and external events. First, the marginal changes in economic and earnings fundamentals during the spring turmoil have a greater impact. Second, the tightness of liquidity also has a great impact on spring restlessness. Third, the level of valuation and sentiment has an important impact on the spring restlessness. Fourth, the impact of policies and external events also has a certain impact on the spring restlessness.
At present, spring is still expected. Comparing the historical review, the current view: (1) The trend of economic and profit margin repair continues. First, in the first quarter of next year, the trend of economic recovery will continue under the support of the credit peak, the implementation of trillions of national bonds, and the peak season of construction and consumptionSecond, the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises has bottomed out, and the first quarter is likely to be in a rebound cycle, and the profit growth rate of A-shares is also in an upward trend under the rebound of profit growth in sectors such as technology and consumption. (2) Liquidity may be marginally loose. (3) Current valuations and sentiment are at historically low levels. (4) The growth policy is expected to rise further, and the risk of overseas shocks is small. (5) Compared with the current macro environment and valuation level similar to the January-March of the year, the spring of 2024** is still expected.
In the short term, there is a high probability that the market will bottom out, and TMT, new energy, consumption and other industries will be relatively dominant. (1) Growth dominance in spring**: According to historical experience, high-prosperity and policy-oriented industries prevailed during the spring turmoil, and currently point to TMT, new energy and some pro-cyclical industries. (2) Short-term focus: First, the policy and industrial trend of computers (data elements, localization, industrial Internet), electronics (intelligent driving, semiconductors), communications (data elements, satellite Internet, etc.), media (AI in education, marketing, film and television applications);The second is the over-falling high-growth industries, such as new energy (energy storage, batteries), pharmaceuticals (innovative drugs), etc.;The third is to maintain the growth policy and related construction materials, textiles and clothing, home appliances, social services, food and beverage and other industries under the peak consumption season.