On December 14, Beijing and Shanghai successively introduced policies to stabilize the property market, including reducing down payments and interest rates, with the down payment for a house in Beijing reduced to 30%, the minimum for 2 suites to 40%, and the lowest mortgage interest rate to 43%, which is undoubtedly a big positive for the property market, and Shenzhen, which is also a first-tier city, introduced a policy as early as November 22 to adjust the standard of ordinary housing and reduce the down payment ratio of second homes.
There are certain differences in the current policy relaxation of the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and the comparison of the policy relaxation of the four cities can be basically similar from the down payment ratio, mortgage interest rate, and general housing standard, but the last purchase restriction condition, only Guangzhou is the most relaxed, while Beijing and Shanghai still maintain the original purchase restriction policy.
First of all, in terms of down payment ratio, at present, first-tier cities have fully optimized credit policies, and the down payment ratio of the first set of commercial loans has been adjusted to 30%. However, in terms of the proportion of down payments for second-hand houses, Guangshen has more relaxation.
In terms of down payment for second homes, Beijing and Shanghai have implemented differentiated credit policies, and the down payment ratio for second homes in core and non-core areas is different. For example, the down payment ratio for buying two houses outside the six districts of Beijing is 40%, and the proportion of buying houses in the six districts of the city is 50%; In Shanghai, the down payment ratio of second homes in the Lingang New Area of the Free Trade Zone and the six administrative districts of Jiading, Qingpu, Songjiang, Fengxian, Baoshan and Jinshan has dropped to 40%, and 50% in the core areas of other regions.
Guangzhou and Shenzhen are not divided into regions, and the down payment restrictions have been relaxed in the whole region, and the down payment ratio for second homes has been directly adjusted to a minimum of 40%, and the policy is more relaxed.
In terms of mortgage interest rates, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen are slightly more relaxed than Beijing, of which Shanghai has lowered the first house by up to 45bp and the second house by up to 85bp. The lower limit of the interest rate for the first home in Guangzhou and Shenzhen has been reduced to 41%, the lower limit of the second set of interest rates was reduced to 45%。The lower limit of the interest rate for the first home in Shanghai is 41%；The lower limit of the second set of interest rates is 4 in the main urban area5%, and the mortgage interest rate in non-main urban areas is 44%。The interest rate of Beijing's first home loan fell to 4 in the six districts of the city3%, and 4 outside the six districts of the city2%；The interest rate on the second home loan fell to 4 in the six districts of the city8%, and 4 outside the six districts of the city75%。
In terms of purchase restrictions, Guangzhou has the strongest policy. For non-registered households in Guangzhou, the purchase of a house with social security for 5 years will be changed to social security or individual income tax for 2 years. The VAT exemption period for individual sales of housing in Yuexiu, Haizhu, Liwan, Tianhe, Baiyun, Huangpu, Panyu, Nansha, Zengcheng and other districts in Guangzhou has been adjusted from 5 years to 2 years. However, Shanghai and Shenzhen have only relaxed purchase restrictions for individual regions and specific people, while Beijing has not loosened. On the whole, compared with several other first-tier cities, Guangzhou has a stronger relaxation in this round.
Although the down payment and mortgage interest rate have been reduced, but in terms of purchase restriction policy, the three first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen still have no signs of loosening, which is the last line of defense for the property market in first-tier cities.
The latest release of the "Beijing Population Blue Book: Beijing Population Development Research Report (2023)" shows that since 2017, . According to the Blue Book, the size of Beijing's permanent population has "dropped for six consecutive years", and the city's permanent population will be 2,184 in 202230,000 people, with a registered population of 1,42770,000 people, the size of the permanent population has been steadily declining, in addition, in 2022, the birth rate of the permanent population will continue to decline, and the natural growth rate of the permanent population will be negative in sync with the national level.
With the decline in population, first-tier cities and provincial capitals will form a strong absorption effect because of their superior education and medical conditions, and more young people will flow from third- and fourth-tier cities to first- and second-tier cities, which will play a role in promoting the local property market.
For the property market, the biggest impact lies in the future population changes, with China's 78-year-old life expectancy as the standard, simply and rudely calculate the death population in the next ten years, the next ten years of death are mainly the birth population between 1945 and 1954, according to statistics, the cumulative birth of 140.26 million people in this decade, and with reference to the birth population of 8 million in China in 2023, the new population in the next ten years will be 80 million, and we will reduce the population by more than 60 million in the next ten years. If this time is enlarged to 20 years, 1045-1064 China's birth population is 324.45 million, the new population is still calculated according to 80 million, the next 20 years we will reduce the population by about 160 million, and in fact, in the future, it is difficult for us to ensure that the new population will still maintain the number of 8 million, only less, it is expected that in the next 20 years, the reduction of the population between 200 million and 300 million is more reasonable.
Based on this, the future of real estate will be more concentrated in the first and second tier cities, and from the investment of real estate enterprises this year, it has gradually withdrawn from the third and fourth tier cities, and instead invested in the first and second tier cities, such as Country Garden, which originally focused on investing in the third and fourth tier cities, and now has begun to adjust its strategy and turn to the first-tier cities and provincial capitals.
Second-tier cities have basically all liberalized the control of the property market, and even some cities have started a war to grab people, the future population will become an important strategic resource, but also to promote the source of urban development, although the first-tier cities are not short of population, but in the future, with the intensification of the war to grab people, may also gradually relax the purchase restrictions, in order to introduce more young population.