Suddenly, the countdown to 2023 has begun!Although there is no authoritative statistical data to support it, the production and consumption of ceramic tiles in 2023 are likely to decline, and the revenue and profits of most enterprises will also decline year-on-year. There is little doubt that the ceramics industry is in a downward channel.
So,Ceramic tile market in 2024
What will happen?
Approaching the end of the year, in addition to the helplessness of the sluggish market and sluggish demand in 2023, people hope that in the upcoming 2024, both China's economy and the ceramic market will be able to hit the bottom, end a new round of trough as soon as possible, and restore the market to vitality and vitality.
A few days ago, a number of international authoritative institutions, including the World Economic Co-operation and Development Organization, International Monetary **, Goldman Sachs, etc., have made a major contribution to China's economy in 2024, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be 46%-4.8% between.
Among them, Goldman Sachs has conducted a relatively detailed analysis of China's real estate. From the peak of 2020-2021, new home sales fell by 40%, new home starts fell by 65%, and real estate investment fell by 20%. Due to the market surplus, unfavorable financing environment, and the control of second-hand housing factors, real estate will continue to drag down China's economy in the next few years. Considering policy easing, 2024 is likely to be slightly better than 2023.
You can doubt the motives and purposes of international rating agencies such as Goldman Sachs, but you cannot question their professional capabilities. Compared with CICC's top 10 Chinese economy in 2023, it is hard for you to believe that each of them can be "in the opposite direction", and its professionalism is almost out of the sky.
Say that tiles are inseparableproperty market
In 2023, the biggest news in the property market is the thunderstorm in Country Garden, and Vanke's debt crisis. In just a few years, a large number of real estate companies have fallen into difficulties, leaving a number of state-owned real estate companies such as central enterprises and state-owned enterprises. In fact, the debt and crisis of state-owned real estate companies are no worse than those of private enterprises, but they have strong strength behind them, and they will not lift the lid for the time being.
In 2024, the delivery of the building is still the top priority, but its order volume will decrease year by year, and the strategic centralized procurement and hardcover house business of the head ceramic enterprises will continue to decline, and the decline is very likely to be more than double digits.
Let's take a lookConsumption
The financial attributes of real estate have trapped a large number of middle class, see through the essence of real estate developers cutting leeks, more and more young people choose not to get married, do not have children, do not buy a house, whether it is just needed or improved, the demand for ceramic tiles is declining off a cliff, and this trend, at present, there is no sign of reversal. For the second decoration and renovation of the old and the new that have been shouted for many years, it seems that the prospects are good, but due to various factors, it has not been able to truly activate and release the demand.
Image display **Nothing to do nextmarket
If there is one word to describe the tile market in 2023, it is "involution". With reduced demand, overcapacity, and increased competition. At the same time, consumption is downgraded, and the war is escalating. The cheaper the bricks, the better it is to sell, in this context, some enterprises have opened a wide kiln line to reduce costs and quality production mode, and the entire industry runs counter to high-quality development.
In 2024, this trend is likely to continue, and a series of low-cost competition models such as lowering standards, relaxing quality control, and brand authorization will be further upgraded.
Let's take a lookYield
Ceramic tile production in 2024 is likely to continue to decline at a double-digit rate on the basis of 2023. Although there are no statistics on the actual production capacity in 2023, it can be perceived from the closure of many enterprises and the high kiln shutdown rate. In 2023, the kiln shutdown rate in most producing areas will hit a record high, and there are not many enterprises that are actually producing at full capacity throughout the year, especially in Guangdong producing areas, where the kiln shutdown rate is higher than the national average.
It is difficult to say to what level the industry's final output will fallHowever, there is a high probability that it will continue to decline in 2024. Along with this, a large number of old production lines, brands, and ceramic enterprises are very likely to withdraw from the market step by step.
Let's take a lookproducts
Image display **Unrelated
In 2023, many companies will switch to 900 1800 high-profit products, but due to consumption downgrades, the sales proportion of large-size products generally does not meet expectations. At the same time, the 750 1500 has become the most cost-effective road goods. But there are also bright spots, that is, velvet and skin glaze are hot.
In 2024, although some companies will try different large-size tiles and rock slabs, such as 1600, etc., there is a high probability that they will not become a hit. At the same time, the proportion of soft bricks and plain bricks may be further increased, and velvet and skin glaze will continue to evolve, but it is difficult to appear "phenomenal" new products.
Let's take a lookIndustry environment
In 2024, carbon trading will be closer and closer to ceramic enterprises, and Guangdong production areas will take the lead in implementation. However, due to the coal-to-gas conversion and the contraction of production capacity, there is little pressure on carbon emissions in the short term.
In terms of environmental protection, after several years of rectification, due to the economic downturn in the past two years, the local government will not continue to tighten, and the pressure is also not great. In terms of energy consumption, due to the significant reduction of new production lines in the industry, many enterprises are reducing production capacity, and the energy consumption index is temporarily sufficient, but some ultra-thick bricks such as paving stone will face the challenge of energy consumption quota standards.
Take a final look. The situation between the appellations
In 2023, Jiangxi will take the lead, while Guangdong will be relatively sluggish. Chongqing has a booming business because of cheap natural gas, and Sichuan and Liaoning are also good because of their geographical advantages. At the same time, the relatively scattered ceramic enterprises in the periphery of the large producing areas that have not implemented coal-to-gas conversion have a larger production capacity. The more mature the market, the more fierce the competition. In the ceramic tile market in 2024, energy and logistics are still important factors affecting the rise and fall of production areas.
In 2024, for the vast majority of ceramic enterprises, their output, revenue, and profits will still face downward pressure, and some ceramic enterprises are facing the crisis of elimination.
Bosses of ceramic enterprises, what do you think of the ceramic market in 2024?
Author I Wang Li.
Cultural Director of the Mona Lisa Group.
Original title: "A little conjecture about the 2024 ceramic tile market".
End of text).
Image display **Unrelated
Recommended viewing
Ceramic enterprises save energy and reduce emissions, this link has a huge impact!
How much R&D expenses and patents have been invested by ceramic enterprises?Publication of data of listed companies.