No one expected that ASML had become the biggest variable, and the shipment situation of lithography machines had been reversed one after another, and ASML had begun to deliver.
The United States, Japan and the Netherlands signed a tripartite agreement, the purpose of which is to restrict ASML from shipping mainstream DUV lithography machines, and as a result, Huawei Mate60Pro went on sale, and ASML directly announced that it had obtained permission to continue to ship 2000i and other models of lithography machines.
ASML not only shipped 5 billion euros worth of lithography machines to China in two quarters, but also became ASML's largest market in the third quarter, and is optimistic about the domestic market in 2024.
The NA EUV lithography machine is the most advanced equipment at present, and ASML has always given priority to shipments to TSMC, and TSMC has taken more than half of ASML's production capacity for EUV lithography machines alone.
However, ASML has given priority to the shipment of NA EUV lithography machines to Intel, and 6 of the 10 NA EUV lithography machine production capacity planned in 2024 are Intel's.
This makes TSMC very helpless, after all, TSMC is ASML's largest customer.
Another point is that ASML's new CEO will take office in April 2024, but he has publicly stated that decoupling from the Chinese market is unrealistic, especially in the field of chip semiconductors.
According to the news, the shipment situation of ASML lithography machine has been reversed twice, mainly because of the following points.
First of all, the overcapacity of advanced processes has led to a decline in ASML's new lithography machine orders, especially for EUV lithography machines, TSMC, Intel, etc., have cut some orders, but domestic manufacturers are well prepared.
In ASML's words, the current shipments to domestic manufacturers only meet half of domestic demand.
The key is that Huawei has achieved a breakthrough in the domestic industrial chain, and the Kirin 9000S chip is the best proof of this.
According to the news, the domestic industrial chain has the ability to build a Duvi lithography machine, which can reduce the chip process to 7nm, and even has the original EUV.
Therefore, ASML can only accelerate the shipment of lithography machines to China, otherwise, ASML will lose more market share, after all, domestic lithography machines have won eighty percent of the domestic market share.
Secondly, the United States wants TSMC's most advanced chip manufacturing technology, but TSMC has built a 3nm chip factory in the United States, which will only be put into production in 2026, which is equivalent to three years behind.
However, TSMC has planned to build a number of 2nm chips in Taiwan Province, planning to mass produce them in 2025, and announced that TSMC will stay in Taiwan at all, which is equivalent to showing its attitude and will not give the United States the most advanced chip manufacturing technology.
Chip manufacturing technology is becoming more and more important, and lithography machines are necessary equipment for the production and manufacturing of chips, so it is natural for the United States to ask ASML to give priority to shipping advanced lithography machines to Intel.
What's more, the United States has asked more chips to be manufactured locally, which is obviously to strengthen the chip manufacturing business.
TSMC is ASML's largest customer, but ASML also has to prioritize shipments of advanced NA EUV lithography machines to Intel.
Finally, the era of TSMC has begun to pass, and although it is still the largest foundry, it lags behind Samsung in GAA process and Intel in 2nm chips.
In terms of mature technology, TSMC made another mistake in judgment, SMIC took the lead in expanding production capacity, and TSMC made adjustments after the fact.
In addition, more and more countries and regions require chip localization, and chips will naturally be manufactured locally, which is one of the reasons why TSMC has built factories around the world.
In other words, the chip manufacturing industry will become more and more fragmented, and TSMC will no longer dominate in the future.
Otherwise, Zhang Zhongmou would not oppose chip self-sufficiency, nor would he suddenly support the United States to launch a chip war against China, let alone say that it is impossible for the United States to build a strong chip manufacturing industry, and it is impossible to have a scale similar to TSMC.