This newspaper (chinatimesnet.CN) reporter Yu Yujin reports from Beijing.
The hit broadcast of "Yi Nian Guan Mountain" has become a costume drama that is quite out of the circle in December, making the "explosive maker" Ningmeng Film and Television return to the public eye.
Although 3 TV series were broadcast in succession during the year, after the stock price reached the high point of the year in January this year, the stock price of Ningmeng Film and Television began to decline. As of December 15, the share price of Ningmeng Film and Television has been **76 from the highest point of this year's stock price78%。In terms of performance, in the first half of this year, Ningmeng Film and Television's revenue was 42.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1210%；For the same period, adjusted net profit was 13.9 billion yuan, an increase of 32 percent year-on-year0%。
Under the decline in revenue and the downturn in the secondary market, Ningmeng Film and Television has also begun to expand its business, and short dramas have become a track for its efforts.
The new drama is on the air
Since the beginning of this year, Ningmeng Film and Television has produced 3 TV series one after another, although "Asking Heart" has won a high reputation, but it will not be until "Yi Nian Guan Mountain" launched in November 2023 that it will completely become popular.
On December 3, 123 hours after the broadcast, the TV series "Yi Nian Guan Mountain" starring Liu Shishi and Liu Yuning exceeded 10,000 popularity, becoming the twelfth work in iQiyi's history to break 10,000. At the same time, the show continues to top the popularity list of many platforms including Maoyan and Kuyun. The score of the show on Douban also reached 75 points, due to the controversy over the content of the follow-up episodes, the current Douban score has dropped to 72 points.
The performance of the six traditional drama production companies, including Noon Sunshine, Huace Film and Television, Xinli Media, Ningmeng Film and Television, Ciwen Media, and Yaoke Media, is relatively differentiated in terms of dramas this year.
In 2023, Ningmeng Film and Television will successively broadcast 3 TV series such as "Love Only", "Ask the Heart", and "Yi Nian Guan Mountain", among them, "Love Only" and "Ask the Heart" have Douban scores of more than 8 points; Huace Film and Television produced "To a Windy Place", and the play won 87 Douban high scores; "The Sun Accompanies Me" and "Ordinary Road" produced by Xinli Media, and Yaoke Media produced "I Heard You Like Me", "Hou Lang" and "Plum Blossom Red Hearts".
Unlike these companies, this year's Noon Sunshine only launched "Ode to Joy 4", and the reputation and ratings are not very ideal, and Ciwen Media has not produced new episodes.
Judging from the above situation, among the six traditional media drama production companies, Ningmeng Film and Television has achieved good performance this year.
Xiang Kai, a young Chinese playwright and director, told the "China Times" reporter that under the influence of the previous epidemic, many small and medium-sized drama companies could not persist and closed down, and the surviving small and medium-sized drama companies have also turned to the micro-short drama track in order to survive, and Ningmeng Film and Television, which can produce high-quality dramas, has more opportunities.
Revenues are weak, stock prices are sluggish
Although "Yi Nian Guan Mountain" is popular in the broadcast circle, "Ask the Heart" has a high reputation, and a series with good quality has been produced before this, but the revenue of Ningmeng Film and Television is not satisfactory.
According to Ningmeng Film and Television's 2023 interim report, its revenue is 42.2 billion yuan, down 12 percent year-on-year1%, mainly due to the decline in revenue from the broadcast rights of copyrighted dramas in the first half of this year.
According to the reporter's understanding, the income from the broadcast rights of copyright dramas accounts for nearly ninety percent of the total income of Ningmeng Film and Television (894%）。For the six months ended June 30, 2023, the revenue from the licensing of the broadcast rights of Ningmeng Film and Television copyright dramas fell by 185% to 37.7 billion yuan. Mainly due to the fact that the first round of copyright dramas broadcast in the first half of this year was only one "Love", and the first round of broadcast of copyright dramas in the same period last year was a total of two. Ningmeng Film and Television confirmed the production cost of the copyright drama series accordingly during the same period.
In the first half of this year, the copyright drama "Love Only" broadcast by Ningmeng Film and Television is a new work with the theme of urban love, which was broadcast on eight sets of **TV stations and Tencent**, ranking TOP3 on the popularity list of dramas broadcast by Tencent ** in the first half of this year, with a Douban score of 82 points, which is the TOP1 urban romantic drama since 2023.
Ningmeng Film and Television is a company with rich domestic IP reserves, but due to the relatively sluggish drama market, it has affected the income of Ningmeng Film and Television, "Xiang Kai further analyzed, due to the transformation of major provincial, municipal and county-level TV stations into financial ** centers, the purchasing power of dramas has declined sharply, specifically in the fact that the four David TV with purchasing power (Hunan Satellite TV, Dragon TV, Jiangsu Satellite TV, Zhejiang Satellite TV) also have their own research and development capabilities, and can invest in filming dramas, while the income of traditional TV has declined sharply, and the ability to buy dramas continues to weaken.
Xiang Kai also analyzed,** platform Aiyou Tengmang's procurement of dramas is also declining, these platforms want to complete the goal of turning losses and sustaining profits, and have implemented various efficiency strategies, it can be seen from increasing members** that these pressures are also transmitted to the upstream content producers, resulting in the "Ningmeng Film and Television", which provides content for the ** platform, the drama companies "purse" shrinking; At the same time, the accelerated recovery of the film market this year has also consumed the purchasing power of long-** dramas, which has had a certain impact on long** dramas.
Fortunately, under the continued in-depth promotion of comprehensive budget management and the effective implementation of cost reduction and efficiency increase, Ningmeng Film and Television achieved a net profit of 1 in the first half of this year3.1 billion yuan, turning losses into profits, adjusted net profit of 13.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32%.
In addition to weak revenue, the share price of Ningmeng Film and Television is very sluggish. After a wave of surge in January this year, the share price of Ningmeng Film and Television fell all the way, and as of December 15, its share price closed at 7HK$93 shares, since 2023, the stock price has fallen by 5942%, the highest point of the stock price this year is 3415 Hong Kong dollars shares, even shrunk by 7678%。
Xiang Kai believes that the fundamentals of Ningmeng Film and Television will affect investors' confidence in Ningmeng Film and Television.
CICC's latest research report said that considering the uncertainty of the launch of Ningmeng's film and television content and the rigidity of costs and expenses, the net profit of non-IFRS in 2023 and 2024 will be lowered9% to 24.1 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan. Maintain the Outperform rating, taking into account the earnings ** downgrade and the upward shift of the industry valuation center, and lower the target price by 242% to HK$10.
Layout skits
Since its establishment in 2014, Ningmeng Film and Television has become a leading label in the industry in 9 years, producing and distributing 20 high-quality dramas.
Among them, 18 are copyright dramas for which Ningmeng Film and Television is the lead or exclusive investor and executive producer, and have exclusive rights to these dramas, including real-life dramas such as "Little Farewell", "Little Joy", "Little Reluctance", "Thirty Only", "Twenty Not Confused" series, "Love Only", as well as suspense series such as "Crime Hunting Guide" and "Coward".
It's just that in the face of the not very stable drama market, Ningmeng Film and Television has also begun to diversify, including exploring new growth tracks such as micro-short dramas.
The boutique micro-short drama "Twenty-Nine" jointly produced by Ningmeng Film and Television and Douyin at the beginning of this year led the Spring Festival file of micro-short dramas, with a total of more than 800 million feature films on the Douyin short ** platform, an average of more than 40 million episodes, and a total of 14 related topics on the whole site500 million times, which is the highest level of micro-short dramas on the Douyin short ** platform.
After that, Ningmeng Film and Television successively launched the micro-short drama "Behind the Traffic" and the second season of "Twenty-Nine", which also achieved excellent results, especially the second season of "Twenty-Nine" to achieve considerable business cooperation.
For Ningmeng Film and Television layout short dramas, Xiang Kai analyzed that although micro-short dramas can be used as a stepping stone for the development of long-** drama IP, in the early stage, when the future trend of some IPs cannot be evaluated, they will test the water through micro-short dramas and then expand into dramas, but Ningmeng Film and Television layout micro-short dramas are more like improving performance and harvesting this wave of short drama dividends.
Ningmeng Film and Television also said in an interview with ** that in terms of short dramas, Ningmeng Film and Television has sufficient IP copyright and material reserves, and the hit rate of continuous production of high-quality copyright dramas in the past is much higher than the industry average. At present, the company's main income in short dramas** includes business cooperation, C-end payment, platform customization, etc., and a single drama can achieve a high ROI.
At present, the micro-short drama track is still laying out micro-short dramas at a low cost, and there are still few high-quality micro-short dramas. Xiang Kai also suggested that Ningmeng Film and Television is different from other drama companies, not only has high IP reserves, but also relatively sufficient capital, and can try to lay out theaters.
Regarding how to stabilize and boost the stock price, the layout of the short drama business and other issues, the reporter interviewed Ningmeng Film and Television, but as of press time, the other party did not reply.
Editor-in-charge: Huang Xingli Editor-in-chief: Han Feng.