Less than two months away from the New Year, according to the usual practice, the factories have already done a good job of winter storage plans, and have already gone down to the market to sweep the goods everywhere, but this year, in addition to individual winter storage plans, it seems that most of the factories have an attitude towards winter storage is "nothing to do with themselves", do not say to do, do not say not to do, follow the market ** normal receipt, scrap steel **, in the past two months steady and slightly rising, and the market is looking forward to the rise of the mentality has weakened signs. Let's take a look at the attitude of each steel mill towards winter storage and the current scrap raw material inventory data of steel mills.
Arrival and inventory data of steel mills in Yunnan
It is not difficult to see from the above part of the steel mill research that the attitude of the steel mill is negative, and the impact of the upstream and downstream is also mutual, so the base is also pessimistic about the market outlook, and does not dare to bet on the rise, and the basic normal shipment is the main reason, which is why the steel mill does not increase in price, but the arrival of goods is steadily increasing.
In addition, from the above figure of Yunnan steel mill daily consumption, arrival, inventory data survey table analysis, you can roughly understand the actual demand of the current steel mill.
It can be clearly seen from the statistics that the total daily consumption of the region is 1250,000 tons, the total daily arrival is 1630,000 tons, with a total inventory of 27520,000 tons, according to the current statistics, the inventory can be used for at least 20 days, so this number of days is almost the planned number of days for steel mills in previous years, so this is one of the reasons why steel mills are not in a hurry for winter storage. In addition to the supply and demand of raw materials, the current production efficiency of steel mills also determines the trend of scrap steel, in the past two months, the finished products can be described as all the way, the production efficiency of blast furnace plants has improved significantly, electric furnace plants are basically profitable, there is Lao Tie said, the steel mill production is motivated, scrap raw materials should also score a piece of the pie, to rise a rise, but don't forget, the continuous benefit depends on the volume of finished products, no matter how high, can not be sold, the price increase is also lonely, the profit can not be cashed, especially now the off-season is deep, Steel has no price, and the production of steel mills is not continuously guaranteed, so how can it take the risk of increasing costs, so returning to rationality, it is not difficult to understand the current situation of scrap.
If you say so, you won't store it in winter? It's not, it's just that the enthusiasm of winter storage is not high, and the storage is still going to be stored, this week a small number of steel mills have given a rough winter storage plan, such as 120,000 tons of steel mill 1, steel mill 2 plans 100,000 tons, and some although no specific data is given, but how much will be prepared, although the hope can not be completely pinned on the winter storage, but there is still some support.
Finally, I would like to tell you that I personally believe that there are three main factors supporting scrap at present: 1. Demand, due to the current better cost performance of scrap, the overall demand for scrap steel has risen steadily; 2. Profits, there are profits in the electric furnace factory, the blast furnace still needs to be repaired, and during the off-season, it is difficult to break through the sales of steel, and the sustainability of profits cannot be guaranteed; 3. It is expected that the economic work conference and other favorable policy information will be temporarily supported in the short term. In short, the tepid situation will continue in the short term, and it is difficult to make a big breakthrough. The above data and personal views are for reference only, if you have different opinions, please leave a comment.