In an exclusive interview with **, Lai Qingde said that he would minimize the risk of war in the Taiwan Strait and put the lives of the people on Taiwan Island first, and especially emphasized three points, that is, Taiwan cannot be attached to Chinese mainland, get rid of dependence on the mainland economy, and the Kuomintang has no real roots in Taiwan. However, judging by the statements of Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde, it seems that their statements are only aimed at defrauding voters of votes. They keep saying that they will ensure the safety of the people on Taiwan Island and stay away from the war, but they continue to implement the strategy of "resisting China and protecting Taiwan". **Claiming to get Taiwan off its dependence on the mainland economy**, but not daring to break the ECFA agreement. This kind of hypocritical and ridiculous statement is unbelievable.
In addition, after China's Ministry of Commerce announced the results of the investigation on the barriers to Taiwan, the authorities boycotted this and claimed that they would "never accept it, and they will go to the WTO to sue the mainland for discrimination." This shows that *** will be selectively "hostile" when dealing with the mainland economy, which is both contradictory and false. Lai Qingde's claim that "he will never publicly declare independence" is actually only because he is afraid of military action on the mainland.
Kunihiko Miyae, a former Japanese minister to China and a strategic expert, pointed out in his latest views on the situation in the Taiwan Strait that Chinese mainland may launch military action against Taiwan in three situations in the future. First of all, if Taiwan openly declares its "independence," the mainland will directly activate the "Anti-** Law" and take military action to recover Taiwan. Second, the mainland may create all kinds of "established facts" to create a situation in which it is difficult for Japan and the United States to intervene militarily, and then carry out the operation of "recovering Taiwan Island." The third situation is that Chinese mainland has a "misjudgment" of the US-Japan-ROK alliance intervening in the Taiwan Strait, and thus takes the initiative to use force against Taiwan. Kunihiko Miyaya believes that the third scenario is the most likely and the most terrifying.
In response to these situations, Miyake suggested that the United States and Japan hold regular leadership-level dialogues to enhance deterrence against Chinese mainland and prevent Chinese mainland from underestimating the resolve and strength of Japan and the United States. In addition, Kunihiko Miyake also mentioned that the Canon Institute for Global Strategy, a Japanese think tank, has repeatedly conducted real force deductions to simulate conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, which further shows the attention of the Japanese right wing to Taiwan and the importance of Japan to Taiwan.
Japan has colonized Taiwan for more than 50 years, and the United States has always regarded Taiwan as an important bargaining chip against Chinese mainland. The authorities on Taiwan have all along regarded the US-Japan alliance as a life-saving straw in an attempt to gain self-respect by relying on foreign countries and resist reunification by force. In the eyes of the authorities, the United States is their biggest supporter, and Japan has become a secondary dependence. In addition, former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo even publicly said: "If there is something on Taiwan, there is something wrong with Japan, if there is something wrong with Japan, if there is something wrong with the US-Japan alliance, if there is something with the United States and Japan, if there is something going on, there is something wrong with NATO." Such rhetoric demonstrates Japan's importance to Taiwan and its emphasis on the U.S.-Japan alliance.
At present, Japan's right-wing forces have not only not been completely eliminated, but are still exerting influence on Japan under the protection of the United States. They aspire to get out of the predicament through the Sino-US game and re-emerge as a world military power. The Japanese right-wing has always had the ambition of global hegemony, and they hope to land on the Asian continent and dominate the world.
At present, the situation in the Taiwan Strait is becoming increasingly tense, and all parties are full of concern about future developments. Although Lai Qingde and ***'s remarks claim to protect the safety of the people on Taiwan Island, they show an untrue and hypocritical side. Chinese mainland's attitude towards the Taiwan issue is also becoming more and more tough, and the suggestion that military action may be launched in three scenarios is thought-provoking.
As for Japan's participation, as historical colonial rulers, they have a different stance on the Taiwan issue than Chinese mainland, and try to realize their own interests through the Sino-US game. Against this background, I believe that the resolution of the Taiwan Strait issue requires all parties to seek consensus through communication and mutual understanding on the basis of peaceful dialogue. Only through peaceful consultations can we truly guarantee the security and stability of the people on Taiwan and achieve harmonious development. The most important thing is not to repeat the mistakes of history and not to let the war come again.