We know that the liquor industry as a whole has been in a state of contraction. At the same time, well-known liquor brands are in a growth trend. It is obvious that local distilleries have closed down one after another, and most people drink from the national brand of liquor, not the local miscellaneous liquor.
The shrinkage of liquor is inevitable, after all, liquor is a drink that is harmful to health. At a certain age, even if the doctor doesn't say anything, I can feel that my body can't bear the liquor anymore. However, liquor is addictive, and when the industry shrinks to a certain state, the total amount will remain stable. So what is the approximate amount of this stability?
According to census data from the Bureau of Statistics, about 60% of China's population is aged 15-59, or 800 million people. This part of the population is the base of drinking. Let's deduce it based on the hypothesis.
1.Assuming that about 50% of the 800 million people have a middle-income or higher income (annual income of more than 60,000 yuan), then the number of people who can drink Moutai is roughly half of the 800 million people, that is, 400 million people.
2.Generally, people rarely drink alone, and most of them only drink at holiday parties. The two most important festivals in China are the Mid-Autumn Festival and the Spring Festival, so the normal time to drink Moutai is twice a year, respectively.
3.According to experience, most people drink less than half a catty, and more than half a catty basically starts to drink indiscriminately. Alcohol should be drunk less, less than three taels. Assuming that the amount of Moutai each person drinks is half a catty, then a person drinks about one bottle of Moutai a year.
4.400 million people need to consume up to 400 million bottles of Moutai every year, and it is obviously unrealistic to assume that everyone gathers and only drinks Moutai. According to the current market share of Moutai of 20%, the consumption of Moutai should be 4 * 20% = 80 million bottles.
5.A bottle of Moutai is 500ml with a mass of about 500g, so 80 million bottles of Moutai with a mass of 40,000 tons. In 2022, Moutai's sales volume will be 680,000 tons, obviously there is a large amount of business demand and hoarding demand.
From this simple calculation, it can be known that the sales of liquor have reached the ceiling. Most liquor companies are overselling and pressing on the channel. Previously, it was reported that liquor distributors had too much inventory to participate in the liquor expo. In the next few years, liquor should be destocked. Sales performance should be at least 50% and fall to a reasonable level in order to continue to grow.