Sudden price increase!30 billion leading daily limit

Mondo Finance Updated on 2024-01-31

On Thursday, A-shares ushered in a long-awaited surge, and the GEM index rose more than 4% at one point. The consumption track also ushered in a comprehensive **, liquor, medical beauty, duty-free and other sectors all rose sharply, among which liquor was even worse, and the CSI liquor index rose 4 on Thursday43%, the biggest one-day increase in more than five months since July 25.

30 billion leading daily limit

From the point of view, Shede Liquor is the strongest, the stock opened slightly lower on Thursday and then went all the way up, touching the daily limit at around 13:30 and closing the daily limit at around 14:02. **, there are still 4285 hand sealed orders to close the limit, press 95The latest price of 28 yuan is about 40 million yuan. Previously, on December 21, Shede Liquor had just hit 84A new low of 61 yuan, which is the same as the 213 set on February 16Compared with the high point of 6 yuan in the year, the retracement is more than 60%. As of December 28**, the cumulative decline of Shede Liquor during the year was 3957%, the latest market value of 31.8 billion yuan.

On the news side, Sichuan Tuopai Shede Marketing, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Shede Liquor, issued a notice on December 28 that from January 1, 2024, the ex-factory price of 500ml taste Shede (including the fifth generation and celebration packs) distributors will be increased by 20 yuan bottles.

The plate increased by more than 140 billion in one day

In addition to the drunkard's liquor, the 17 other CSI liquor index components were also all **on Thursday**, and the drunkard liquor (+7.76%), Lao Bai Dry Wine (+5.73%), Luzhou Laojiao (+5.).41%), Yanghe shares (+4.86%), Wuliangye (+4.69%). In terms of market capitalization, the 18 constituent stocks of CSI Liquor increased their market value by more than 140 billion yuan on Thursday, of which the market value of Kweichow Moutai increased by 72.8 billion yuan, Wuliangye increased by 24.3 billion yuan, and Luzhou Laojiao increased by 13.6 billion yuan.

Why is the liquor sector?

As the "eternal god" of the once A** field, every move of the liquor sector has attracted the attention of investors, and the reason for the collective rise of the plate on Thursday has also become the focus of investors' attention. From a comprehensive market point of view, the following three aspects are frequently mentioned:

First, many liquor items have begun to raise prices again. In addition to the above-mentioned Shede Liquor, according to China ** Daily, on December 27, the ex-factory price of Kweichow Moutai's series of liquor products, Sauce Fragrance Classic, was raised by 10 yuan to 218 yuan bottles, and the price of Golden Prince Liquor was raised by 20 yuan to 178 yuan bottles. The ex-factory price of Jian Nanchun's core product, the crystal sword, will also be increased by 20 yuan bottles. Second, the liquor sector has suffered a sharp pullback recently, and there is also a technical ** demand, and the sharp ** of A-shares on Thursday undoubtedly provides a good opportunity. Take the CSI Liquor Index as an example, as of December 28, its monthly ** has been negative for 5 consecutive years, with a cumulative decline of 1846%。

The third is the recovery of consumption data, which has also accumulated momentum for the first liquor stocks. According to the previously disclosed retail sales data of consumer goods, the total retail sales of consumer goods from January to November were 4279 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72%, 0. faster than from January to October3 percentage points. And from January to November this year, retail sales of services increased by 19% year-on-year5%, driven by factors such as the festival effect, the demand for accommodation and catering, cultural tourism, transportation and other services will be released intensively.

Liquor stocks are now showing positive signals

Even if you look at the liquor sector itself, there are more and more market participants who believe that the liquor sector is becoming more and more valuable for allocation. First, in valuation, Oriental Wealth Choice data shows that as of December 28**, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) of the CSI Liquor Index was 258 times, with a P/E percentile of 2575%, i.e. the current valuation is only 25 more than historically75% of trading days are expensive. Second, in performance, that is, the performance of the liquor sector is improving. In the third quarter of this year, the liquor sector achieved a total net profit attributable to the parent company of 3527.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1792%。Since the third quarter of 2020, the liquor sector has maintained double-digit growth for 13 consecutive quarters.

The third is in institutions, that is, institutions are increasing their allocation to liquor stocks. Taking the public offering as an example, the statistics of IB found that the secondary industry that actively added the most positions in the third quarter was liquor, with an increase ratio of 192pct。Specifically, Kweichow Moutai is still the largest heavy stock in the public offering, and Luzhou Laojiao, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are also in the top 20 heavy stocks in the public offering.

Institutions are bullish on liquor stocks

From an institutional point of view, there have been more and more optimistic voices about liquor stocks recently. Guoxin ** said that it can be moderately optimistic about the liquor sector. It said that the darkest moment of the fundamentals of the current liquor sector has passed, and with the landing of macro stimulus policies, the industry inventory cycle is expected to accelerate to bottom, and the first cycle is expected to usher in an upward inflection point. Wanhe** said that the valuation of wine companies such as Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao has fallen to below 20 times recently, and the industry may be close to the bottom. Kaiyuan** also believes that the current market's pessimistic expectations for liquor consumption are relatively sufficient, and the valuation of liquor is at a low level after **, and it attaches importance to the opportunity of plate layout.

Wanlian ** Chen Wen said that looking back on 2023, due to the stock capital game and the lack of investor confidence, the consumer sector will adjust to a certain extent. Looking forward to 2024, the macro economy is expected to continue to recover, the income level of residents is expected to increase, and the consumer industry will maintain a stable and positive trend.

Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).

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