In April 2023, Yu Fenghui's economist made astonishing words: it is becoming more and more difficult for China to surpass the US GDP! Netizens angrily scolded him for "exaggerating the brick family".
Under the multiple pressures of the Sino-US war, fiscal policy and industrial adjustment, the GDP gap between China's economy in 2022 and 2023 will show a widening trend. Yu Fenghui, a well-known economist, made remarks on social media, believing that it is becoming more difficult for China to catch up with and surpass the United States, which has sparked heated discussions on social networks.
Yu Fenghui's views were supported by some netizens, who pointed out that the strong economic growth of the United States in the past two years is indeed in line with the official data. The outbreak of the epidemic in early 2020 led to a narrowing of the economic gap between China and the United States, but in 2022, the United States adopted an aggressive interest rate hike policy, which strengthened the dollar and changed fundamentals. By the first half of 2023, the U.S.-China GDP ratio will fall to 646%, indicating that China is facing huge challenges.
However, the article points out that there is a serious problem of inflated GDP data in the United States. First, historically high inflation in the U.S. has pushed up prices and spurred the expansion of the economic panel. Although inflation is deducted, this has boosted economic growth under abnormal circumstances. The U.S. has chosen to raise interest rates, and the benchmark interest rate has reached an all-time high, putting huge pressure on the debt-ridden U.S.**.
Second, the strengthening of the dollar has led to exchange rate problems, which has attracted a large amount of capital inflows into the United States, pushing up capital investment in the United States. China's accommodative monetary policy has stimulated the economy, but the exchange rate of the renminbi against the US dollar** has weakened China's advantage in US dollar-denominated GDP growth.
The article reveals the problem of the United States artificially modifying the calculation method in order to maintain its GDP advantage. The U.S. uses the spending method to calculate GDP, which includes many items that are not counted in GDP in China, such as virtual rent. This practice has led to an inflated U.S. GDP, with virtual rents exceeding $2 trillion in 2022, or 10% of total U.S. GDP.
The article emphasizes that the particularity of the GDP gap between China and the United States is caused by a combination of factors. High inflation, exchange rate issues, changes in calculation methods, and cash payments are all short-term special circumstances that cannot be used as the basis for long-term economic development between China and the United States. Therefore, there is no need to be overly concerned about the rhetoric of China's economic decline.
Finally, the article emphasizes that it is the high-tech manufacturing industry that will really determine the future trend of China's economy, especially the emerging manufacturing industry that can create high-paying jobs. The game between China and the United States is concentrated in the manufacturing sector, and China's development in high-tech industries and semiconductors is challenged by the US technology blockade and an aging population.
The comprehensive analysis shows that there is still uncertainty in the economic showdown between China and the United States, and the combined effect of different factors makes it difficult to maintain the GDP gap for a long time. High-tech manufacturing will become the key to China's future economic development and determine the competition pattern of the Chinese and American economies.
This in-depth analysis of the economic gap between China and the United States provides a comprehensive and rigorous perspective. First of all, Yu Fenghui's remarks caused a huge controversy on social networks, and the article cleverly introduced the topic and made readers curious about the future of the Chinese and American economies. It's a great introduction that piqued the reader's interest.
The article provides a detailed analysis of the economic fundamentals of China and the United States, especially the inflated problem behind the US GDP data. By revealing the high inflation rate in the United States and the drawbacks of the spending method in calculating GDP, the article highlights the serious problems in the US GDP data. This deconstruction not only heightens readers' awareness of the authenticity of GDP, but also makes the rationality of Yu's remarks more prominent.
Regarding the particularity of the GDP gap between China and the United States, the article emphasizes the combined effect of various factors, which makes the gap widen for a while. This objective and dispassionate attitude helps the reader to look at the current situation rationally without being overly worried. Through the interpretation of the strengthening of the US dollar and the exchange rate problem, the article allows readers to better understand the formation mechanism of the GDP gap between China and the United States, and increases the readability of the article.
Finally, the paper provides an in-depth analysis of the determinants of China's economic future. High-tech manufacturing is emphasized as the key to determining China's future, which is closely linked to the current international competition pattern. The article provides readers with a clear direction of development through manufacturing, technological lockdowns, and an aging population. This unique insight into future trends provides readers with a clearer economic outlook.
Overall, this review fully affirms the depth and breadth of the article, and through reasonable structure and strong argumentation, readers can better understand the complexity of the economic gap between China and the United States. The article also treats controversial remarks with an objective and calm attitude, guiding readers to look at the current situation rationally, which is a commentary worth pondering.
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