Recently, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev has once again attracted widespread attention and has been praised by many netizens as a prophet. His rhetoric always seems to be becoming a reality, or at least moving towards realization. For example, he once said that "the United States is ready to let Ukraine fight to the last Ukrainian", and now it seems that this is becoming a reality. Recently, Medvedev spoke out again, implicitly saying that "after the United States defeats Russia, it will come to deal with China." Although Medvedev may be more hoping to use China's power to resist the United States and the West, Russia, as the only major power that can compete with the United States head-on in terms of nuclear arsenal stockpiles, seems unlikely to be easily defeated by the United States and the West in the conventional war of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Therefore, the American plan proposed by Medvedev seems difficult to realize.
It is worth noting that Russia's Putin is stepping up his efforts on the Russian-Ukrainian front. Not long ago, Putin issued the first round of conscription and mobilization orders, and about 480,000 volunteers have responded, and a steady stream of applicants have expressed their willingness to defend Russia with ** in hand. This has led to an improvement in the situation of the Russian armed forces in the zone of the special military operation almost on all fronts. Putin even said that Russia will not carry out a second round of mobilization because there are enough volunteers to respond. In stark contrast, the situation with conscription in Ukraine seems to be quite dire.
In addition, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu recently said that the Ministry of Defense plans to fully complete the special military operation in 2024. The results of this action will bring the total area to more than 8Four regions of 30,000 square kilometers and a population of about 5 million were incorporated into the territory of the Russian Federation. The Sea of Azov will become an inland sea of Russia, a land corridor to Crimea will be opened, and rail traffic with Donbass will resume. However, this outcome is unacceptable in the eyes of the United States. The Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank, pointed out that if this happens, it will have two serious consequences. First, Russia may further threaten other European countries and force the United States to deploy a large number of military forces in Europe, leading to a further increase in defense spending and a deeper predicament for the economy. Second, Russia's victory could motivate China to prepare for "military reunification" with Taiwan. At that time, the United States will not be able to deal with China and Russia at the same time, and the Indo-Pacific strategy will be a complete failure.
However, for these views, we believe that American think tanks look at developments through colored glasses. Whether or not the PLA will "reunify" Taiwan by force cannot be decided solely because of external factors, because the mainland is still striving for the opportunity for peaceful reunification. This assumption of the behavior of great powers is based more on the hegemonic thinking of the United States than on rational analysis.
The most important thing is that if Russia wins, it will break the hegemonic image of "the first in the world" deliberately created by the United States and the West, and give a shot in the arm to the global anti-hegemonic countries. This could spur more countries to take action against hegemonism. For the United States, this will be a catastrophe of unbearable weight.