Israel's threats to southern Lebanon and Allah have undoubtedly brought new uncertainty and tension to that country and to the Middle East region as a whole. This incident has aroused widespread concern in the international community, and has also revealed that complex disputes in geopolitics are difficult to resolve through purely military means. The purpose of this article is to dissect the reasons behind this crisis and to find out what possible ways to solve it.
First, we need to clarify the origins and context of the crisis. According to public information, the conflict stemmed from an attack by Allah armed groups against Israel in Syria in September this year.
Subsequently, the Israeli side sent fighter jets to strike a number of targets in Syria in retaliation for these attacks.
And on December 9, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution on Lebanon, which calls on all parties to stop all forms of violence as soon as possible and maintain peace and stability in Lebanon. However, the resolution was seen as a provocation by Israel, which in turn imposed tougher sanctions on southern Lebanon and Allah Lebanon.
Second, from a geopolitical point of view, there are deeper strategic considerations behind this incident. As a country with great military power, Israel has always presupposed, with its territorial integrity and security as a precondition. In recent years, Iran's growing presence on the Syrian battlefield and the growth of radical armed forces such as Allah have made Israel feel threatened.
Therefore, this threat to southern Lebanon is in essence an attempt by Israel to eliminate this potential threat by force and prevent the situation in the region from spiraling out of control. In this way, Lebanon's development has become a victim of Israel's foreign policy.
What strategies should we adopt in the face of this crisis?On the one hand, China has actively carried out mediation work and called on all parties to remain calm and resolve differences through dialogue and consultation. All parties should conscientiously implement the relevant resolutions adopted by the UN Security Council, refrain from "double standards" and respect Lebanon's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
At the same time, the international community should be invited to participate in the monitoring and implementation of the ceasefire agreement in order to prevent the situation from escalating and worsening.
In view of Israel's protracted aggression and occupation of southern Lebanon over the past 18 years, the Lebanese Allah Party, whose main theme is "against Israel", has an extremely wide range of supporters on the south bank of the Litani River. There have even been rumours that almost every household in the area has members of Allah. Therefore, it is almost impossible to get Allah completely out of this land.
The Lebanese-Israeli war since 2006 seems to have shown that even if Israel is capable of carrying out mass destruction attacks in southern Lebanon, it is unable to force Allah to withdraw north of the Litani River by military means alone.
In addition, there are various news circulating on the Internet that Allah's preparations for war in 2021 are more adequate than in 2006, and the information monitoring and reconnaissance system in the Israeli border area has been seriously damaged through several days of attacks, and the ground forces are ready to counter the Israeli offensive.
Considering that if Israel uses force against Lebanon, it will actually face the dilemma of fighting on two fronts in Lebanon and Gaza, but for Israel, which is relatively under-armed and equipped in troops, this will undoubtedly become a serious challenge.
However, since today (10th), the border conflict between Lebanon and Israel has indeed shown a rapid intensification, especially on the Israeli side, the air force has begun to dispatch warplanes to carry out air strikes across the border, sending extremely strong warning signals.
According to overseas network reports, in the early morning of December 11, cities in northern Israel near the Lebanese border were suddenly alerted by air raids. It is reported that Allah in Lebanon carried out at least eight rocket launches, some of which were successfully intercepted by Israel's "Iron Dome" defense system, while the rest landed in relatively open areas, and no personnel have been reported so far. It is assumed that Israel is likely to retaliate with military strikes at a later date.
Reference News mentioned in the report that on the morning of the 10th, Lebanese Allah launched ** drones with attack functions and high-fire rockets in the direction of Israel. Allah said its attack drones had successfully hit an Israeli army headquarters and a post on a nearby border.
In contrast, Israel announced that on the same day, its anti-missile system had successfully shot down two "air targets preliminarily determined to belong to Lebanon." The attack by Allah and the response from the Israeli side resulted in two Israeli soldiers being slightly injured, most of them lightly.
In response, the Israeli Air Force launched warplanes and carried out air strikes against three towns in southern Lebanon. According to local Lebanese officials, the Israeli airstrike caused devastating damage to five houses, and many others suffered varying degrees of damage, injuring at least three women and two men.
In addition, the recorded video footage also revealed that on that day, two Israeli Air Force F-15 fighter jets roared through the sky from a high altitude and flew over the Lebanese capital Beirut, which seemed to be intended to send a serious and serious threat signal to Allah.
But Allah will not easily throw in the towel. According to the group, air strikes of this magnitude can only be seen as a prelude to a new round of conflict, so Allah will also use new types of ** to target new targets to respond to this development.
It is expected that the conflict between Lebanon and Israel will escalate in the coming period, further increasing tensions in the region.