On January 1, 2024, the world will usher in a new demographic milestone: the total global population will approach 80200 million, an increase of more than 75.16 million from New Year's Day 2023. This data is the estimate released by the U.S. Census Bureau on the 28th. What does this mean?How will the global demographic landscape change?
While the global population is growing, the rate of growth is slowing. According to the World Population Prospects 2022 report released by the United Nations, it took about 11 years to grow from 7 billion to 8 billion, which is close to the time taken to grow from 6 billion to 7 billion. The next billion growth is expected to take about 145 years, which will happen in 2037. According to the United Nations**, the annual growth rate of the global population is likely to fall to 0 by 2050 due to the continued decline in fertilityAbout 5%.
With the development of economy and technology, the life expectancy of human beings continues to increase. According to the United Nations, the average life expectancy of the global population increased from 64 years in 1990 to 72 in 20198 years old, increasing to 77 in 20502 years old. Affected by the new crown pneumonia, the life expectancy of the population in many countries has declined. In 2021, the average life expectancy of the global population was 71 years.
The global population continues to grow in life expectancy, and the birth rate continues to decline, and the degree of social aging is also deepening. According to the report**, the proportion of the global population aged 65 and over will increase from 9 in 20227% rises to 16 in 20504%。
Currently, China and India are the two most populous countries in the world. However, the trends in population growth between the two countries are very different. China's population growth rate has fallen to 053 per cent, while India's population growth rate is still as high as 102%。India's census was originally scheduled to be held every ten years, but 2021 was postponed due to the pandemic. The last real national census in India was in 2011, and no one knows how much they have added to the population in the past 10 years. United Nations**, India will become the world's most populous country in 2023.
China is the second most populous country in the world and one of the countries with the most aging population. Since 2012, China has continued to adjust and optimize its fertility policy, but the number of births is still sluggish. In 2021, the number of births in China was only 12 million, a new low in nearly 60 years. The seminar jointly organized by the Chinese Population and Development Research Center, the United Nations Population Division and the United Nations Population Office in China pointed out that the total population of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the medium and long term will experience zero growth and negative growth successively. At the same time, China will face a situation in which the proportion of young people is high and the number of elderly people is doubling.
On New Year's Day 2024, the global population will reach a new height, which is both a result of the progress of human civilization and a challenge facing mankind. Population is not only about quantity, but also about structure, quality and distribution. In the era of globalization and digitalization, mankind needs to pay more attention to the sustainable development of population, balance the relationship between population and resources, environment, economy and society, and promote the harmonious coexistence of population and human well-being.
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