Since the 13th, rain and snow have occurred in many places in China, and at the same time, the ** Meteorological Observatory has continued to issue orange warnings for cold waves, yellow warnings for blizzards and yellow warnings for freezing, of which the orange warning for cold waves is the highest level in cold wave warnings. With the cold wave sweeping, all walks of life in China have varying degrees of impact. Weather fluctuations are becoming an increasingly important influencing factor for sensitive commodities, and which sectors of commodities will be impacted by this cold wave?
In cold weather conditions, people's demand for energy, such as heating fuels: coal, natural gas and oil, will inevitably lead to ***
The fourth quarter is generally the peak season for coal consumption, if there is a cold wave, the demand for thermal coal will further rise, and the main impact on bifocals is shipments, if the downstream arrival is not smooth, bifocals have an obvious ** drive.
In addition, the contradiction between energy supply and demand caused by extreme temperatures, lack of wind and water has become an acute problem that cannot be ignored. In the context of the transition between the old and new energy sources, the fragile balance between energy supply and demand may be broken by emergencies at any time. Cold spells, snow storms and frost damage could drive energy to new highs.
Winter is usually the harvest season for many agricultural products, such as vegetables, fruits, and grains. However, if the weather is too cold, these crops can be damaged, affecting and pushing the grid.
The impact of the cold wave is also reflected in the transportation, road congestion and traffic accidents make traffic control in many places, which leads to untimely market supply, affects the sales progress and plan of middle and downstream enterprises, and ultimately affects the terminal market consumption, and the short-term market is affected to a certain extent.
According to data, China's commodity ** index (CBPI) in November 2023 was 113%, down 06 percentage points. The commodity ** index ended before the continuous rise, appeared**, the month fell by 2 compared with the previous month8 percentage points to 1011%, the lowest point in nearly seven months.
In November, the growth rate of domestic commodity market demand slowed down, the wait-and-see sentiment in the bulk market increased, the growth rate of commodities slowed down, and commodity inventories further accumulated, and the pressure on market operation increased.
After entering December, with the rapid decrease in temperature, downstream construction will be restricted, especially in the northern region, the scope of shutdown will be expanded, the speed of demand slowdown will be accelerated, and the contradiction between market supply and demand and inventory pressure will continue to exist.
In December, with the convening of the Politburo meeting, the economic work conference and the Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, under the resonance effect of the rising domestic stable growth expectations and the easing of overseas tightening expectations, the stable release of endogenous market momentum and the further development of economic stabilization policies, the domestic economy still has the foundation to stabilize and improve, and the bulk market is expected to get a certain boost in the middle and late December.
At present, the world economy is undergoing profound cyclical and structural changes, and the downturn of the growth cycle and financial cycle determines the basic overall situation in 2024. Under the constraints of weak demand, it is expected that the upward momentum of the domestic commodity market in 2024 will not be too large, and the downward impact is also decreasing.
At present, for commodity companies, effective risk management has become the key to ensure the stability and sustainable development of their business, and commodity companies should take risk management as the top priority and strengthen risk identification, assessment and control.
Therefore,A professional set of risk management software is especially important !!
Here, as a digital service provider for the operation and risk management of bulk commodity enterprises, Zhizhi Yunji is deeply engaged in the field of bulk commodities and is committed to promoting the innovation of industrial digitalization and intelligent scenario applications in the bulk industrySelf-developed smart cloud pole CTRM futures cloud systemThrough institutionalized design to control the risk of entering the market, through efficient and scientific decision-making to quickly grasp the fleeting opportunities on the market, through basic research to grasp the first-hand information and data of the spot market, to help enterprises better cope with market fluctuations, to ensure the steady operation of enterprises.
InSmart Cloud Pole CTRM systemThrough digital design, the digitization of business product characteristics, workflows, and operation processes is converted into data, and after the data is cleaned, analyzed, and integrated by digital tools, the enterprise proprietary database is built, and the business process and operation are fully standardized. Push analysis and assist decision-making.
Secondly,The smart cloud CTRM system deeply integrates multiple business scenarios such as data, transactions, warehousing, and transportation servicesSeamlessly inherit the data structure and data permissions of the PaaS platform, collect and share the risk data of the group and subsidiaries, provide a one-stop decision support data center, run through the whole process of bulk commodities, give full play to the advantages of real-time sharing of big data, realize risk monitoring, information sharing, centralized management and dynamic early warning, etc., carry out risk monitoring charts, multi-dimensional risk analysis, Customer risk portraits, etc., summarize key indicators in enterprise operations for decision-makers, output data charts and statistical dashboards, help refine risk management, promote risk management automation, process, and visualization, and effectively prevent and resolve risks.
In addition, the smart cloud CTRM futures and spot cloud system not only provides flexible derivatives trading management functions, but also combines advanced risk management models to help the construction of enterprise risk management system, through the setting of strict risk prevention and control indicators, the actual implementation process of the formation of pre-approval, in-process supervision and post-reporting system, multi-dimensional early warning mechanism to enhance the enterprise's perception of risk, complete the transformation from traditional manual risk monitoring to real-time monitoring of the system, risk management in man, machine, system, The organic combination of system and other elements enables the efficient implementation of risk management from top to bottom, and builds a comprehensive risk management system that integrates futures, cash and financial with adaptive pre-event risk assessment, real-time control during the event, and post-event retrospective review.
If you are interested in the Wisdom Cloud Pole CTRM Futures Cloud System or want to know more, please feel free to contact us, we look forward to working with you to ** the future of commodity enterprise risk management!