Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a dream of becoming a superpower, and he believes that India can surpass China and become the world's second largest economy by 2044, achieving an "India-China reversal". This dream sounds beautiful, but it is also unrealistic, because the gap between India and China is too big to be bridged overnight.
First of all, in terms of population, although India has surpassed China to become the world's most populous country, this is not something to be proud of. India's demographic, although relatively young, faces many problems, such as a low quality of the population, an illiteracy rate of 10 percent, an imbalanced gender ratio, a serious patriarchal mentality, and the failure of population control policies. These problems have constrained India's economic and social development, and have also brought many factors of poverty and instability to India.
Secondly, from an economic point of view, although India's economic scale has entered the top five in the world, it is still far from China's. According to the World Bank, in the two decades from 2000 to 2022, China's GDP rose from nearly 14 trillion yuan to more than 130 trillion yuan, while India's GDP was only 29 trillion yuan. China's share of global manufacturing has reached 30 percent, while India's share is less than 5 percent. China's economic growth far outpaces India's in terms of speed and quality, and India's economic development is constrained by infrastructure development, which is very backward and inefficient in investment.
Thirdly, in terms of science and technology, India's level of science and technology is far inferior to that of China. China accounts for four of the world's 20 high-income technology companies, while India has none. China produces more than half of the world's 5G build-out, while India accounts for only 1%. In the field of artificial intelligence, China owns 65% of the world's AI patents, while India has only 3%. Apps such as Douyin in China have taken the world by storm, while India doesn't have any tech products that can go global.
Finally, in terms of international status, India is also inferior to China. Although India is relatively active diplomatically and maintains good relations with the United States, France and other countries, it has no real strategic partner and no real international influence. India only wants to curry favor with Western countries in order to gain some benefits, but it does not have its own independent position and propositions. China is different, China is a self-confident, open, down-to-earth, continuous progress of the country, and has the most far-sighted, inclusive and generous pattern of a major country, not only put forward the "Belt and Road" initiative, promote global infrastructure construction and economic cooperation, but also played an active role in international affairs, maintaining world peace and stability.
To sum up, it is an unrealistic dream for India to overtake China, because the gap between India and China is too big to be achieved by Modi's ambitions. India should first solve its own internal problems and improve its own economic and social development level, instead of blindly comparing itself with China, otherwise it will only make itself more disappointed and frustrated.