For bond assets, now is a better opportunity to lay out next year.
Lazy Yangji recently participated in an online survey of Liu Wanfeng, manager of China Merchants Dual Bond Enhanced Bond**, and Liu Wanfeng always expressed such views in the survey.
Lazy Yangji once held another more well-known bond ** - China Merchants Industrial Bond, which is more familiar with it, and China Merchants Double Bond Enhanced Bond and China Merchants Industrial Bond happen to belong to the same hybrid first-class bond base, so the idea of comparing China Merchants Double Bond Enhancement ** and China Merchants Industrial Bond was born at the first time, and the net value trend curve of the C share of the two ** (China Merchants Double Bond Enhancement has no A share) was superimposed, and the comparison results are detailed in the figure below.
Data**: choice data).
It can be seen from the trend chart of the net value of the two bond base C shares in the past five years that the trend of the two ** is very close, which can be said to be between the two companies.
Compared with the hybrid Tier 1 Bond Index, both have significant excess returns, and the net value curve is much smoother, showing a stable style and excellent anti-volatility ability.
After checking it, Liu Wanfeng has been independently managing China Merchants Double Bond Enhanced Bonds since August 5, 2015, and has served as a ** manager for more than 8 years and has a debt base scale of 446A veteran of 9.4 billion yuan.
Let's take a look at some of Mr. Liu's views on bond investment.
1. Bonds (** are still assets that may continue to contribute positive returns in the next few years, and have allocation value.
The bull market of bonds will be very long, and if you intervene at any point in time, you can basically get positive returns if you hold it for more than half a year.
But to achieve relatively good returns, the timing of intervention is important.
Now is a better opportunity to lay out next year
The main reasons are:
1) It is currently in a stage where bond yields (coupons) are high.
In the past few years, the fourth quarter has been a situation where funds are tight and yields are at a stage high.
2) Due to the weak macro fundamentals, the relatively low interest rate will be maintained in the future, which is a sufficient and necessary condition for maintaining the normal operation of the economy in the future, so the yield (coupon) of bonds may become lower and lower in the future.
Liu Wanfeng has a relatively clear judgment that the bond market will still be a bull market next year, but the returns may not be as high as this year.
Liu Wanfeng also gave an example of the process of converting high-yield (coupon) bonds into special bonds and loans with lower yields (coupons).
3) Bond assets with slightly higher coupons have the problem of structural insufficiency.
Some higher-yielding bond assets can be bought now, but there may be less room to buy higher-yielding bonds next year.
3. The investment portfolio is basically based on pure debt.
About 80% of the yield contribution of pure debt** comes from coupons, and the various pricing of the long end of the bond is very adequate and scientific.
At present, the demand of residents is weak, the overcapacity of enterprises and the profitability is not very good, and the overall situation is an environment suitable for risk-free assets or low-risk assets.
Therefore, Liu Wanfeng will not allocate convertible bonds at present, but will use the idea of pure debt as a portfolio.
Specifically:
1) Try to find and focus on the allocation of credit bonds with higher coupons, but insist on focusing on medium and high-grade credit bonds, which is not suitable for qualification (credit) sinking at present.
2) At present, it is appropriate to add one to the duration and leverage, and wait for the opportunity next year.
I think next year will probably be such a rhythm: the first step will be to buy out all the things with slightly higher coupons, and the second step is that if there is nothing to match in this case, then everyone may go to do long-term things, so in December, according to the market situation, there may be both coupon and portfolio duration, and do more relatively balanced layout. ”
3) The portfolio strategy may be adjusted at any time, and some changes can be made to the interest rate (high and low), credit (rating), duration and leverage ratio.
4. Now everyone is afraid of volatility and likes particularly short-term bond-based varieties.
The medium- and long-term bond base is slightly more volatile, but the returns are also relatively better, and it is more worth allocating.
Now it's basically a gestation and cultivationwithThe stages of the layout.
Because the yield curve has flattened now, it is basically the end of the adjustment, as long as the market capital side eases slightly, or the interest rate on certificates of deposit falls back to a high level, ** may soon enter a better state.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, and combing does not constitute an investment recommendation.
All views and ** involved in this article do not constitute investment advice, and investment in the market is at your own risk.