With the 2024 Taiwan regional leadership election approaching, the election campaign has entered a climax. In this election contest contested by the Kuomintang, ** and other political parties, the competition between the Kuomintang and *** was particularly fierce. Current polls show that the KMT's support has surpassed *** at several times, showing that voters are gradually becoming disillusioned with *** policies.
With its hard-line policy and confrontational line, it is gradually losing popular support. Nowhere is this more evident than in business policy. Chinese mainland once launched the ECFA (Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement) for Taiwan out of friendship between compatriots on both sides of the strait, aiming to provide Taiwan with preferential trade and trade. During the leadership of Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintang, ** was normalized, and the implementation of ECFA benefited many Taiwanese industries.
From 2011 to 2023, the mainland provided Taiwan with nearly $10 billion in tariff reductions through the ECFA, so that Taiwan often maintained a surplus with the mainland. For example, in 2022, Taiwan's ** surplus with the mainland was as high as 156.5 billion US dollars, while the overall ** surplus was only 51.4 billion US dollars. This means that without the ECFA, Taiwan's annual deficit could exceed $100 billion.
However, after coming to power, ** adopted a tough policy of "de-mainlandization", refused to cooperate with the mainland, and even took confrontational measures to sever cross-strait ties. **'s policy not only ignores the well-being of the Taiwanese people, but even hurts the feelings of compatriots on both sides of the strait. For example, the "egg shortage" incident in Taiwan in 2023 is the result of its policy mistakes. In the face of the shortage of eggs on the island, the authorities refused to import from the mainland, which is rich in production and preferential treatment, and instead chose to import from distant countries, resulting in a surge in eggs in the market.
In the manufacturing sector, the political opposition is also shown. Taking the shipbuilding industry as an example, although the market share of Chinese mainland's shipbuilding industry is as high as 76%, the authorities have excluded the bidding qualifications of mainland enterprises when purchasing dual-fuel container ships abroad, and handed over expensive orders to Japanese and South Korean shipping companies.
The politicization of commerce and trade has not only hindered normal cross-strait commercial and trade cooperation, but also harmed the common interests of the people on both sides of the strait. According to the Ministry of Commerce, Taiwan imposed an import ban on 2,509 products from the mainland, in serious violation of ECFA provisions. Therefore, the mainland's termination of part of the preferential Taiwan policy is based on legal and moral considerations.
Against this background, the visit of Xia Liyan, vice chairman of the Kuomintang, is seen as an important turning point in Taiwan's political situation. Unlike the Kuomintang, the Kuomintang supports the "92 Consensus" and advocates peaceful dialogue, exchanges and cooperation to promote Taiwan's economic development. **The decline in support among the people reflects the Taiwanese people's worries about tension and economic sluggishness, as well as their expectations for improving the sharing of the mainland's economic dividends.
In view of the Taiwan issue and the complex situation, my view is that this is a multidimensional issue that is deeply influenced by history, culture, politics and international relations. The political trend and development of the Taiwan region are of great strategic significance to the entire Asia-Pacific region and even the world. In this context, peace and stability should be the common goal of all parties concerned.
First of all, the internal political dynamics of the Taiwan region have a direct and far-reaching impact on ***. The KMT's tendency and confrontational policies may exacerbate cross-strait tensions, while the KMT is more inclined to deal with the voters' support for these two different political positions through dialogue and cooperation, which will directly affect Taiwan's future policy direction and development.
Second, the development of cross-strait economic and trade relations is of vital importance to the economic prosperity of the Taiwan region. As an important partner of Taiwan, the mainland market is indispensable to many of Taiwan's industries. Therefore, a pragmatic and open economic and trade policy is necessary for Taiwan's long-term prosperity and stability. The short-sighted and confrontational nature of political decision-making could have a negative impact on Taiwan's economic development.
Finally, the international community, especially the major countries involved, should adopt a responsible attitude to support and promote peace and stability. It is in the best interests of all parties involved to refrain from any action that could escalate tensions, and instead resolve differences through diplomacy and dialogue.
In short, the future should be based on mutual respect and peaceful coexistence. Through dialogue and cooperation, we will seek a common development path to bring long-term stability and prosperity to the people of Taiwan and the entire region.