Zhitong Finance and Economics learned that D** Id Neuhauser, manager of hedging, said that at a time when the trend of oil, ** and U.S. bonds diverged, some investors were wrong about the risk of recession in the United States.
The CIO at Livermore Partners said many investors want a "Goldilocks"** that the economy doesn't grow too fast and doesn't shrink too much. "The outlook is, of course, that the Fed will consider cutting interest rates as the market believes a soft landing is on the horizon," he said. On the surface, it does, but at the same time, you can see many cracks beneath the surface. ”
Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls data for November, as well as inflation data released earlier, boosted hopes that the U.S. economy could avoid a recession. However, D**id Neuhauser noted that U.S. consumers and the global economy are still showing signs of weakness, and inflation remains stubbornly high in some countries.
"It looks like the U.S. market is the best place to invest, and I think it is," he said. But will we see things take a turn for the worse?Or will the economy be down, but corporate earnings will not be affected?"I think that's the problem, people don't have a good understanding of that, but they believe a soft landing is going to happen, and that's the current narrative. ”
D**id Neuhauser said the oil and gas markets in which Livermore Partners invests "present a completely different picture" in terms of the economic outlook. "If you look at oil prices, and then you look at the market, you see that a recession is just around the corner," he said. But from the point of view of analysts, the US economy is on the verge of a soft landing. In fact, this is what the 10-year Treasury yield reveals. ”
Brent*** is now around $75 a barrel, more than 20% from its peak of about $97 a barrel in September, the data showed. * Recently surged from a low of around $1,810 an ounce in early October to about $1,991 an ounce on Monday, down from a record high of more than $2,100 an ounce set last week.
Both oil prices and gold prices point to growing recession fears. Meanwhile, rising expectations of a soft landing for the economy after strong jobs data sent the 10-year Treasury yield to jump on Friday.
"Someone got it wrong, and that's what I'm trying to say," said D**id Neuhauser. It's hard to say who's wrong. So I'm just waiting to see which path is the right one. ”