Earlier this month, Moody's announced that it would keep China's sovereign credit rating unchanged but revised its outlook to "negative" from "stable". Around the same time, the credit ratings of Hong Kong and Macau were in the same situation, and the outlook was downgraded from "stable" to "negative". In this regard, Moody's gave the reason that the economic growth of Chinese enterprises has slowed, local debt is high, and the real estate industry continues to fall into a downturn. In the long run, China's outlook is not good. Moody's is one of the world's most influential credit rating agencies, along with Standard & Poor's and Fitch Ratings, and Moody's, which downgraded its outlook for China, is a U.S. company.
It is interesting for an American company to downgrade ChinaAlthough the other two credit rating companies have not yet moved, Moody's downgrading China's future outlook this time still has a big impact. In general, a decline in credit ratings typically leads to higher borrowing rates, as investors demand higher returns to compensate for the additional risks they take, meaning that China** and companies may have higher funding costs, affecting their investment ability and earnings prospects. Under such circumstances, foreign investors have to be cautious about investing in China. In recent years, a large amount of foreign capital has been systematically withdrawing from the Chinese market, and Moody's has bad intentions for China at this time. The news of the rating adjustment will trigger short-term volatility in the RMB exchange rate and cross-border capital flows. While China's capital controls can limit this effect to some extent, they cannot completely avoid the emotional reaction of the market.
As the revision of the rating outlook may affect the future expectations of companies, it will lead companies to reduce investment and expansion plans, and may also have a negative impact on consumer confidence and lower consumer spending. In response to Moody's behavior, China's Ministry of Finance refuted it one by one, mainly in two parts: First, other countries have also appeared with China-type phenomena, and they are more serious than China, why have they not been downgraded?Second, China's economy has indeed encountered difficulties, but it is far from being downgraded. And judging by the economic data for the first three months of this year, GDP increased by 5 percent year-on-year2%, which is also considered high globally. Therefore, there is no reason for Moody's to downgrade China's outlook rating, and the Chinese Ministry of Finance's refutation is also justified.
It is clear that the United States is waging a financial war against ChinaSome analysts believe that this move, in fact, may echo the intentions of the United States and become a prelude to a potential financial war. According to market monitoring, there were 26.3 billion yuan of northbound funds in a month, that is, funds flowing from Hong Kong and other places to the mainland**, showing an outflow trend. The outflow of capital will inevitably put pressure on the country, and the decline may further affect the financing costs of enterprises and even the overall economic image of the country. In this context, Biden's public remarks are also intriguing. During international summits and visits, he repeatedly expressed his views on China's economic issues, hinting that China's economic outlook is risky. Such remarks may send a signal that the market may interpret the US as skeptical of China's economy, and some may even believe that it is deliberately suppressing China's economy and financial markets. In this context, Moody's downgrade of China's credit outlook rating is bizarre. Although rating agencies base their decisions on a complex set of economic indicators and models, it is difficult to say whether political factors are behind their decisions in the context of great power games and international politics. Of course, China's economy still has some resilience and intrinsic growth momentum. Despite facing problems such as an aging population, rising debt levels, and challenges in the international environment, China's large market advantages, well-developed infrastructure, and continuous innovation vitality have supported its economic development. So, what if
It is really Biden who is launching a financial war against China, so it is necessary to weigh it, with the current economic situation of the United States, can it withstand the consequences of this round of financial war?You must know that the economy has long been globalized, and the United States and China's economy are deep, and while launching a financial war against China, it is also waging a war against itself.