Li Ruoyu is a special researcher at the Foreign Research Center of Sichuan Provincial Key Research Base for Regional and National Studies, and a director of the Chinese Society for the History of Sino-Japanese Relations.
On November 26, Chinese Minister Wang Yi, Japanese Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa and South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin gathered in Busan, South Korea, to restart the China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting in the post-epidemic era. The Trilateral Foreign Ministers' Meeting was held 10 times in 2004 and is an important part of the trilateral cooperation between China, Japan and the ROK. Therefore, the main topic of the conference is also inseparable from the theme of "cooperation". As Wang Yi said, "China-Japan-ROK cooperation has become the multilateral cooperation framework with the highest degree of institutionalization, the widest coverage and the richest connotation in East Asia, effectively serving the development of the three countries and benefiting the people of the region." "Since cooperation has brought tangible benefits to all three countries, why has the China-Japan-ROK foreign ministers' meeting not been held after 2019?
The negative impact of the epidemic on international exchanges is naturally the first to bear the brunt, but many factors in Japan and South Korea themselves cannot be ignored. Among the participants attending the 10th China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting, except for Wang Yi, who is a "frequent visitor" of the meeting for four consecutive times, Yoko Kamikawa and Park Jin are both attending the meeting for the first time as foreign ministers - Yoko Kamikawa has just taken over as Japan's foreign minister in September this year. Behind the changes in the number of participants is the change of leadership in Japan and South Korea. Since 2019, Japan has changed prime ministers twice, and South Korea has also experienced a change from Moon Jae-in to Yoon Suk-yeol. Changes in the political situation in Japan and South Korea will inevitably be projected at the policy level, affecting the participation of the two countries in East Asian cooperation.
In fact, at the end of Moon Jae-in**, Japan-South Korea relations fell to a freezing point. In terms of the relations between the two countries at that time, it was almost an "impossible task" to hope that the two sides would put aside their disputes and earnestly promote trilateral cooperation. Moreover, the foreign policies of Japan and South Korea are also subject to the United States. At the stage when the United States is vigorously pursuing a "decoupling" policy toward China, Japan and South Korea will inevitably face strong pressure from the United States once they make some moves on China-Japan-South Korea cooperation. And this kind of external pressure from the United States is difficult for the leaders of Japan and South Korea, whose roots are unstable, to withstand.
The reasons for the convening of the China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting in November 2023 can also be considered from the same perspective. On November 15, President Biden met with Biden at Philory Manor in San Francisco, USA, and the two sides had a frank and in-depth exchange of views on strategic, overall and directional issues related to China-US relations, as well as major issues related to world peace and development. Now that "progress", "cooperation" and "stable relations" have become the latest high-frequency words in China-US relations, it is natural that China-Japan-ROK cooperation, which is limited by China-US relations, can go further. In fact, during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in San Francisco, the leaders of the United States, Japan, and South Korea also held trilateral talks, which inevitably involved US Asia-Pacific policy and Sino-US relations. Therefore, linking the easing of US policy toward China with the progress of trilateral cooperation between China, Japan, and the ROK is by no means imaginary.
In addition, it is undeniable that the China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting is also a matter of rigid demand from Japan and the ROK. Détente between South Korea and Japan is one of Yoon Suk-yeol's signature policies, and this year alone, Yoon has held seven summit talks with Fumio Kishida. Relations between the two countries have indeed improved dramatically compared to before. However, the improvement in relations between South Korea and Japan has not changed the dilemma that Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida each face at home, and both have faced intense political pressure to this day. Yoon's one-sided foreign policy toward the United States and Japan has not brought benefits to his country. Busan, South Korea, which bid to host Expo 2030, received only 29 votes in the first round of voting, the latest example of the failure of "values diplomacy".
The Kishida regime is just as stormy in Japan. The Yomiuri Shimbun, which shares the same conservative spectrum as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, conducted a poll conducted on November 17-19 and showed that the Kishida cabinet had only 24 percent approval and 62 percent disapproval. According to the political law proposed by Liberal Democratic Party veteran Mikio Aoki, "the sum of the approval rating of the cabinet and the support of the largest party in the ruling coalition must not be less than 50%", the fate of the Kishida cabinet is hanging by a thread. Fumio Kishida, who participated in the China-Japan-South Korea Foreign Ministers' Meeting twice as Japan's foreign minister, was originally considered by the outside world to be stronger in diplomacy than in domestic affairs, but his tough diplomacy that actively cooperated with the United States' China policy after taking office did not give Kishida ** extra points. For both Yoon Suk-yeol and Kishida**, promoting trilateral cooperation to create a broader international space for their own economic development is the most realistic way out of the current predicament.
Under the trilateral cooperation mechanism between China, Japan and the ROK, the Trilateral Foreign Ministers' Meeting is usually a prelude to the China-Japan-ROK Leaders' Meeting. As the consensus of the 10th Trilateral Foreign Ministers' Meeting, "actively promote 'China-Japan-ROK+X' cooperation with an open attitude for the benefit of more countries and regions", which originated from the "China-Japan-ROK Cooperation in the Next Ten Years" proposed at the 8th China-Japan-ROK Summit in 2019, which "promotes 'China-Japan-ROK+X' cooperation, jointly formulates plans, takes joint actions, expands cooperation with other countries, narrows regional development gaps, and achieves common development." Therefore, the important outcome of this foreign ministers' meeting also includes "the three sides agreed to create conditions for the China-Japan-ROK summit and step up relevant preparatory work." Obviously, the further deepening of China-Japan-ROK cooperation ultimately requires the China-Japan-ROK leaders' meeting to draw a blueprint.
Geographically, China, Japan and South Korea are neighbors in Northeast Asia that cannot be moved. Past history has proven many times that the involvement of extraterritorial countries can never bring real security to the Northeast Asian region. Only by strengthening cooperation among China, Japan, and the ROK can we promote security and development in Northeast Asia. China has always advocated international development cooperation. Although China-Japan-ROK cooperation has slowed down in the past four years due to various factors, the temporary slowdown is not a valuable experience. It is believed that the 10th China-Japan-ROK Foreign Ministers' Meeting will be a new starting point for trilateral cooperation.
Editor: Gao Peining, Tang Hua, Zhang Yanling.