Six years agoRMBThe depreciation turmoil seems to be still vivid, but todayRMBBut it brought us unexpected good news. Recently,RMBGloballyCurrencyThe market performed well, especially against the US dollar, which accumulated more than 2,000 points** and managed to surpass it in NovemberEuros, ranking second largest in the worldCurrency, second only to the US dollar. How was this feat achieved?Below, we will analyzeRMBThe reasons behind the surge, its impact and the challenges we should meet.
Balance of payments surplusdomestic economyRecovery boostsRMBAppreciate. According to data from the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, in the first 10 months of 2023, ChinaBalance of payments surplusIt has reached 1$2 trillion, a record high. This is mainly due to:domestic economyThe strong recovery of exports, rapid export growthForeign exchange reservesThe continuous increase has attracted foreign capital inflows, and the promotion of the "dual circulation" strategy has reduced the dependence on external demand. These factors have elevatedRMBThe relationship between supply and demand has been promotedRMBExchange rate of **.
2.Interest rate level advantage:RMBThe investment attractiveness of assets has increased. According toPeople's Bank of ChinaData, the first 10 months of 2023, China's one-year periodDeposit interest ratesMaintain at 15%, and the United StatesFederal** Interest Ratethen from 025% to 125%, ECB'sDeposit interest ratesIt is even more from -05% to -075%。Relative to the dollar andEuros, China's interest rate level is higher, making itRMBAssets are more attractive and have increasedRMBdemand, which in turn is promotedRMBExchange rate of **.
U.S. dollar index**: Weaker US dollar boosts othersCurrencyStronger. According to the U.S. Department of Commerce, in the first 10 months of 2023, the United StatesEconomyGrowth is slowing,Inflation rateRise,Fiscal deficitsWidening, intensifying political divisions, these factors have weakened the confidence of the dollar, leading toU.S. dollar index** to a new low in the last 10 years. The weakness of the dollar makes othersCurrencyThe more valuable it is, the more it adds to the otherCurrencydemand, which drives the otherCurrencyExchange rate of **.
1.Reduce import costs and increase domestic purchasing power:RMBAppreciation will makeImported goodsand services** have declined, allowing domestic consumers to buy more foreign products for less, improving their quality of life and well-being. This is also true for domestic businessesProduction costsPositive impact, increased competitiveness and profitability.
2.Reducing export competitiveness and enhancing international status: due toRMBAppreciation, exports of goods and services** relative rise, this may not be good news for foreign consumers, but it has prompted Chinese exporters to improve product quality, innovate technology, and open up markets to enhance their competitiveness. In addition,RMBAppreciation also contributes to the promotionInternational settlementcapabilities to enhance China's influence on the international stage.
3.Challenges and countermeasures:RMBThere are also some potential challenges and risks that need to be vigilant and guarded against. On the one hand,RMBA big rise could lead to domesticDeflationpressure, lowerEconomyGrowth. Due toRMBappreciation, a relative decline in domestic goods and services, which reduces producers' incomes and willingness to invest. On the other hand,RMBThe sharp rise may trigger international ** friction and increaseEconomyof uncertainty. As China's export competitiveness declines and imports rise, foreign producers face greater market competition and fewer export opportunities, which may reduce their profits and employment rates.
FaceRMBSoaring, we should strengthen domestic structural reforms, improveEconomyto enhance the ability to resist risks and promote high-quality development. At the same time, we should actively participate in the international communityEconomyCollaborate, promoteRMBInternationalization process, expansionRMBInternationally used in the scope and influence of the worldEconomyto contribute to stability and prosperity. RMBThe big rise is not only our pride, but also our responsibility, let's work together to letRMBMore brilliant!