Recently, when oil prices have fallen one after another, the net value of the relevant ** has been lowered, but the ** of the secondary market is still strong, resulting in a serious premium of such LOF**, and some products have even issued more than ten risk warning announcements in a single month.
Judging from the various premium risk warnings disclosed during the year, most of the high premiums can reflect the short-term ** at that time, in addition, such products generally have a small share in the market and are prone to sharp fluctuations in transactions caused by funds. Some industry insiders reminded the risk, "the net value is the true reflection of the actual value, and the ultra-high premium rate in the field indicates that the *** is out of its value, there is a high bubble, and the probability of the later stage is larger." ”
LOF** discount and premium are mixed.
On December 8, E Fund** announced that the secondary market trading of E Fund's *** Investment** (QDII) Class A RMB shares** fluctuated greatly, and reminded investors to pay close attention to the net value of **shares.
"On December 6, 2023, the net value of this *** share is 11380 yuan, as of December 8, 2023, the ** price in the secondary market is 1388 yuan, significantly higher than the net value of the ** share, investors may suffer significant losses if they blindly invest in the ** share with a high premium rate. The announcement mentions.
At present, many LOFs have a discount premium, and some products deviate greatly. As of December 8, Harvest** had a premium of nearly 17%, and E Fund's S&P Healthcare A premium of RMB 1528%, as well as Changxin Lixin, Bosera Science and Technology Innovation Board three-year fixed opening, etc., the discount is more than 6%.
A ** manager in South China told a brokerage China reporter that the discount premium is the discount premium of the latest trading price relative to the latest net value date. Recently, oil prices have fluctuated greatly, and the bottom layer of the above products is *** plus some exchange rate factors, and the changes in the market will be relatively large. In addition, the scale of the product should be too small, and a small amount of capital can cause sharp fluctuations in **trading**.
According to the reporter's observation, the above-mentioned E Fund investment market circulation share is only 26 million, at the end of the trading time on October 31 last year, there is a 3-year closed operation of Minsheng Jiayin Technology Innovation** by nearly 350 hands, that is, more than 30,000 yuan of funds will increase the net value by 14.
* There is no special pattern for the issuance of premium announcements; When the market is higher than the net value of the share, and the premium is large, or the market trend fluctuates greatly, the manager has the responsibility to issue a premium announcement to remind investors of the risks.
On December 8, E Fund** also disclosed the premium announcement of E Fund's S&P Healthcare Class A RMB and other products. Judging from similar announcements disclosed during the year, most of the premiums in the secondary market of such ** can reflect the short-term ** at that time. If the performance of the debt base is hot during the year, and the number and scale of new issuance in November hit a new high in the year, CITIC Prudential issued an announcement that on November 2, the ** price of CITIC Prudential Double Profit LOF in the secondary market was 1154 yuan, relative to the net value of the ** share on that day 0938 yuan, the premium reached 2302%。
In May, when Japan was in a strong range, products such as ChinaAMC Nikkei ETF and E Fund Nikkei ETF also disclosed premium announcements many times. In addition, Huabao Overseas Technology was established on April 11 this year, mainly investing in overseas technology-themed trading-oriented open-ended and other public offerings, which caught up with the technology stocks in the United States at the beginning of its establishment. As of June 12, in just two months, the net value has been **1575%, the ** also adopts the **LOF operation mode, Class A shares are listed and traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, driven by the net value, the market ** also rose sharply, on June 13, it once hit the limit, in just 20 trading days, ** rose 2468%。And because the rise in the secondary market far exceeded the increase in net value, the company also disclosed on the evening of June 13 the indicative announcement of the premium risk of Huabao Overseas Technology**Type**Investment** (QDII-LOF).
It is necessary to pay attention to the fluctuation of the underlying net asset value.
A manager in charge of LOF in Shanghai said that the net value reflects the value of the underlying assets, which is equivalent to the intrinsic value of the product, while the secondary market of LOF will be affected by factors such as supply and demand, situation, market risk appetite, liquidity, event triggering, etc., if the premium is too high, the secondary market will greatly exceed the net value, which is equivalent to a high valuation, and there is a risk of returning to the net value.
The manager added that if the premium rate is too high, it means that the premium is significantly higher than its own "value". The trading heat in the field decreases or the subscription restriction is opened, the selling power of the secondary market increases, the supply increases, and the premium is too high to return to the actual value of the market, resulting in the highest price
Some industry insiders pointed out that it is necessary to pay attention to the volatility of the underlying assets invested in LOF** - if it is, the high premium will gradually converge; If it is **, the premium will be further expanded, and the investment risk of high premium will also be magnified. The recent continued decline in oil prices has undoubtedly had a negative impact on the underlying assets of related products: on December 8, Brent*** for February delivery closed at 75 per barrelAt $84, it has recorded the seventh consecutive week**, and E Fund**a's RMB net value is at a high level of about 19%, but the market share continues to be high, and the maximum drawdown is only less than 10%.
Li Lingbing, a researcher at Yingmi, reminded investors that the net value is the true reflection of the actual value, and the ultra-high premium rate in the market indicates that the market is out of its value, there is a high bubble, and the probability of the later stage is larger.
Investors should pay close attention to the situation of the premium rate when buying the market, need to pay attention to the fundamentals and market trends, and pay attention to the changes in the premium rate, and avoid blindness** to avoid suffering significant losses. At the same time, risk management is also very important, and investors need to develop appropriate risk management strategies to protect their investments. Li Lingbing said.
Editor-in-charge: Tactical Heng.
Proofreading: Li**.
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