It is said that Russia cannot do without Putin, but what about the future?

Mondo International Updated on 2024-01-31

After Putin announced his participation in this year's Russia, Matviyenko, chairman of the Russian Federation Council (upper house of parliament), Chechen leader Kadyrov Jr., and Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev and other dignitaries all expressed their "resolute support" and expressed the meaning that "Russia cannot do without Putin".

According to data from Russian polling agencies, after Putin's announcement of his candidacy, the poll support rate has increased again, approaching 80%;And before the election campaign officially began, there were already "spontaneous" rallies organized by the Russian people to show solidarity with and support Putin, and said that Russia could not do without Putin.

In a specific ** field, whether it is a supporter of Russia or Putin's "iron fans", they all support Putin's candidacy infinitely, and they all say that the current Russia cannot do without Putin.

As for why Russia can't do without Putin, some people on the field argued: If there is no Putin, Russia will be ravaged by the West, Russia will become a country with "no sovereignty", and the Russian people will live a "dignified" life. To put it bluntly, it is quite a bit of the meaning of "Iraq without Saddam Hussein is nothing".

On the topic of Putin and Russia, the author found a phenomenon, that is, they all say that Russia cannot do without Putin, but few people mention "Russia's future", and no one says when Russia will leave Putin

After all, man cannot defeat the laws of nature, and Putin will eventually have a time to "grow old", will Russia be able to leave Putin at that time?If Putin is gone, it doesn't matter if Russia lives or dies?

Some people may say that no one has a "front and back eye", and they should look at the front and the inside first. Moreover, according to the current constitution of Russia, Putin can at least work until 2036, far from now!Regardless of whether Putin will be sick or unexpected between now and 2036, even after 2036, won't Russia still need to face a situation without Putin?

Moreover, even after 2036, Putin will still be able to lead Russia with physical strength and energy, and even if the Russian people are willing to amend the constitution to let Putin continue to work, in terms of the average life expectancy of Russians, Putin's reign will not exceed that of the Qianlong Emperor in the history of the Qing Dynasty. However, in other words, even if it is true that Qianlong's "merits are complete", what about it?

Qianlong reigned for 60 years, and his "cultural and martial arts" can be said to have created a brilliant page in history, and he himself became a "perfect old man" with satisfaction. However, after him, the Qing Dynasty took a "downhill road", and the distance between the world and the world was getting bigger and bigger. What does it mean?It shows that it was at the "price" of the future destiny of the whole country that his long-cherished wish of "perfect old man" was realized.

In terms of historical rings, Qianlong and George Washington belong to "contemporaries". However, the "worldview" and "values" of the two of them are very different. At that time, in the hands of Qianlong, the Qing Dynasty was already in its "prosperous era", while the United States was in ruins, and at that time a situation had already formed that "the United States could not do without Washington". But even so, Washington is adamant not to do a "third term." Qianlong, on the other hand, "hung the curtain and listened to politics" for a period of time after his abdication.

Obviously, if we use a specific "measure" standard, Washington's love for the United States is obviously not as deep as Qianlong's love for the Qing Dynasty. However, the United States and the Qing Dynasty behind them showed a different development trend, one was thriving, and the other was sliding unstoppably. So, why?

What Washington has left behind is institutional coherence, a momentum of innovation. What Qianlong left behind was a "rejection" of the advanced, a "solidified" system, and a loophole that looked glamorous on the surface but was actually "riddled with holes". Washington got the ease of the last days, while Qianlong got the image of a "content" "perfect old man".

The United States, which left George Washington, did not fall, and Qianlong's personal "merit fulfillment" did not allow the Qing Dynasty to continue to prosper. I don't know if this historical conclusion has a "warning" effect on Russia and Putin today, but it is certain that no one can prove that Russia will collapse without Putin, and no one can say that Putin's "personal success" will make Russia strong forever.

If it is said that during Putin's first and second terms, "Russia cannot do without Putin", then there is nothing wrong with it. However, now that Putin has been in power for 23 years, Russia is still inseparable from Putin, what does it mean?That can only show that either Putin's greatness has become "incomparable", or that Putin's governance has not allowed Russia to achieve a "virtuous circle", which in turn shows that Putin is just an "ordinary person" and is not so great as a "god".

The reason why Putin is "worshipped" by so many people is nothing more than the reason for the three reasons of "iron man and tenderness", "superb skill" in internal governance, and "tough means" in strategic games. However, if we break apart and crumple these "images" and "merits" to analyze, it is not difficult to find that there are not only "hidden dangers", but also traces of "artificiality".

Quelling the Chechen rebellion" is one of Putin's achievements. But to put it bluntly, such a "calming" model is temporary, unsustainable, and even lays "hidden dangers" for the future. For example, Russia** increases financial subsidies to the Chechen Republic by tens of billions of rubles every year, and the vast majority of them are used by Kadyrov Jr. to arm Chechen troops.

This model of "subsidizing for stability" will make Russia's next leader have to continue this "model", otherwise it will inevitably "cause chaos". Second, the continuous growth of the Chechen armed forces will necessarily be "good" for Russia's stability and reunification?

According to a report by RIA Novosti, a few days ago, Chechen leader Kadyrov Jr. publicly sent an application to the United States, hoping that the United States would lift sanctions on his mother, daughter, nephew and horses, in exchange for the release of 20 Ukrainian prisoners of war in the hands of Chechen forces. The mention of this "information" is not to analyze why Kadyrov Jr. did this, but to explain that there are no loopholes in the "governance" of a country where all localities can "trade prisoners of war" with foreign countries?

When it comes to local armed forces, we have to talk about the Wagner mercenaries. On the battlefield in Ukraine last year, the Wagner mercenaries were in the limelight, and Putin was greatly complimented by the ** scene at that time, saying that Putin's establishment of the Wagner mercenaries was a "great initiative". However, two events that followed overshadowed this "great initiative".

Because of the "disagreement" with the military, the Wagner mercenaries abandoned their front-line positions and "moved in" to the city of Moscow, preparing to go to the "Qingjun side". Moreover, after the "Wagner incident", Putin personally declared: There is no clause and basis for the formation of "Wagner mercenaries" in Russia's constitution, and the existence of "Wagner mercenaries" is illegal. However, the fact that an "illegal organization" was able to exist in Russia for 9 years speaks of the "greatness" of governance?

Punish oligarchs with an iron fist" is another of Putin's great "merits". To put it bluntly, Putin's actions at that time were indeed very forceful. However, what about the current situation?Let me give you two examples. First, Russian opposition leader Navalny once questioned his opponent in a televised debate: Why did so many "young entrepreneurs" suddenly appear in Russia?Second, we can go and see who are the "Russian tycoons" sanctioned by the United States and the West

Being tough on the United States and the West is the main reason why Putin's image as a "tough guy" has been created. However, which of Russia's punches was directly hit by the United States or NATO?The "Russian-Georgian Five-Day War" hit its small neighbor Georgia, and this "special military operation" hit the "brother" Ukraine. What we talk about is nothing more than "hitting our neighbors and brothers" and hurting the "hearts" of the United States and NATO.

One moment it says that it is because NATO threatens Russia's security, and the other time it says that Russia has single-handedly defeated dozens of countries in the United States and the WestIt is said that Russia without Putin will be attacked by the West, and it is said that the West will not dare to touch Russia with nuclear **. So, the question is, if the United States and the West are so unbearable, why does it threaten the survival of Russia?Is it Putin who stopped the attempts of the West or is it the credit of the nuclear **?Obviously, paradoxical.

To sum up, "Russia cannot do without Putin" is itself a "false proposition". This is because all "arguments" are based on "subjective assumptions". It is not denied that Putin is indeed a leader with "characteristics", but historical "examples" have repeatedly shown that a country's continued strength stems from its ability to "virtuous circles".

To put it bluntly, if Russia really reaches the point where it cannot do without Putin, then the Soviet Union is a "lesson from the past" for Russia.

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