Today's news hotspot is related to everyone's moneyHighlight the point
A new round of deposit interest rate cuts is about to land, and the interest of 200,000 yuan for three years will be 1,800 yuan less. ICBC, Bank of China and other large banks take the lead, involving products of various maturities. It is said that a number of small and medium-sized banks are raising prices to grab customers recently.
When will it come into effect?
December 22, 2023, isn't this tomorrow?
Approaching the end of the year, there is no money for salary cuts and layoffs, so it's easy to deposit in the bank to earn some interest, and don't give this opportunity
The purpose of the interest rate cut on bank deposits is obvious, that is, I don't want everyone's money to be stored in the bank anymore, and you can't make any money there, so I call on everyone to take out the money and spend it quickly. How much money have you saved?So much so that banks are anxious, after all, the main way for banks to make money is to make money through the difference between the interest rate of deposits and loans. That is, banks pay a lower interest rate on customer deposits, and when they lend to businesses or individuals, they charge a higher interest rate, and this interest rate differential, also known as interest rate differential, is mainly relied on by banks to make money.
So, what happened to bank deposits and loans in the first 11 months?
According to central bank data,Top 1In January, RMB deposits increased by 2565 trillion yuan, an increase of 130.1 billion yuan year-on-year. There is another data worth paying attention to, the total deposits of Chinese residents have reached 130 trillion yuan, and the average household deposits have reached 36 according to the calculation of 4 people per household80,000 yuan, ranking first in the world.
At first glance, this is not a bad statistic, showing the ability of our people to save, and in economics, a high savings rate is often seen as a potential motivator for a country's future investment, because savings can eventually be converted into investment, promoting economic growth.
But the deeper economic implications of an excessively high savings rate are that it reflects residents' uncertainty and risk-averse mindset about the future, which may beThis leads to insufficient consumption and suppresses demand, which in turn is detrimental to economic growth, all due to a lack of confidence in future expectations
Compared with the deposit data above, what is the performance of the loan data?
According to central bank data,Top 1In January, RMB loans increased by 2trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-yeartrillion yuan。Business loan interest rate 389%, down 03 percentage points, which continued to remain at a historical low since statistics began.
The comparison found that the increase in deposits was higher than that of loans, that is, there were more deposits and fewer loans. If this continues, how can they make money for the banks themselves?
Approaching the end of the year, everyone may have an obvious feeling: bank loans** keep bombing, give you the best interest rate**, and try to let you take out a loan, even so, most of the people who received ** still politely hung up with a sentence of "no need, thank you".
According to data from the State Administration of Financial Regulation, the net interest margin of commercial banks at the end of the third quarter of 2023 was 173%, the lowest since 2010. DescriptionAt present, banks' net interest margins are under great pressure。(Net interest margin = total interest income of the bank - total interest expense of the bank and all interest-bearing assets).
Therefore, for banks, a reasonable reduction in deposit interest rates can balance their own operations. Internet celebrity economist Ren Zeping's remarks some time ago "suggest that the bank deposit interest rate be temporarily reduced to zero".It sparked heated discussions。Ren Zeping believes that the interest rate will be lowered to zero for the time being, and the interest rate will be raised after the economy recovers, which will help residents and enterprises tide over the temporary difficulties, and after the interest rate is lowered to zero, we will support the expansion of domestic demand through fiscal expansion and revive the economy.
While the proposal is well-intentioned, it may be too radical to reduce to zero. However, at this stage, the overall trend of deposit interest rates is indeed decreasing, and since the beginning of this year, in June, August, September, and this time in December, deposit interest has been reduced four times in a row.
Drop and drop the interest on the depositIn the future, I am afraid that the most important thing for everyone will be the soaring prices。The money for this bit of interest is gone, and the price of goods will rise, what does this mean?
Let's logically reason, the purpose is to let you take out the money to invest or consume, you invest in consumption, enterprises can live, enterprises live, will increase production investment, then consumption and investment will be further increased, and eventually the economy will slowly pick up.
Everyone feels the same way about the cold economy now. If you still save money and don't consume or invest, then the company's things can't be sold, the inventory accumulates more and more, and it can't be turned, and the company is not good at further layoffs, salaries, and stores, and everyone will have no money, and their expectations for the future will be worse, and they will further deposit money in the bank, and the economy will never be able to operate.
If everyone takes out all the money for consumption + policy means to stimulate, there is more money circulating in the market, and the value of the currency will fall, which will lead to the price **. Prices** can stimulate economic growth, and confidence will stimulate consumers to buy more goods and services, thereby increasing demand and output, and will also encourage companies to increase productivity, increase investment and hire more workers.
Do you still remember the price increase of Moutai in November, and the later price increase behavior of Luzhou Laojiao, Master Kong and other enterprises? The purpose of the price ** is obviousMaintaining a certain level of inflation is good for economic growth。In 2024, we will enter the era of prices.
Today, I gave my second uncle, who is deeply involved in the real estate industry, a **. The second uncle said: Housing prices will have to rise next year. I asked why?He said that the third and fourth line houses can't be sold, a big reason is that the people are waiting and seeing, to see if you will continue to reduce the price, the more you reduce the price, the more they don't buy, the developer can't afford to wait, so the price has to rise, as long as there is a handful of people who take the lead in raising prices and taking the lead in buying, buying up or not buying down, the people behind will naturally flock to it, and they will appear on the real estate scene ......The second uncle said, after all, there is still a demand!