China Business Intelligence Network News: In the first three quarters of 2023, the power ** will be safe and stable, the power consumption will be stable and improving, the overall balance of power supply and demand, and the power transformation will continue to advance.
OneFirst half of 2023National electricity supply and demand.
(1) Electricity consumption and demand
In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the country was 686 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 56%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year6 percentage points, the national economy continued to recover and improve, driving the growth rate of electricity consumption to increase year-on-year. In the first, second and third quarters, the electricity consumption of the whole society increased year-on-year respectively. 4% and 66%。
Data**: Compiled by the National Energy Administration and the China Business Industry Research Institute.
First, the electricity consumption of the primary industry continued to grow rapidly. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the primary industry was 97.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 113%。Among them, the first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 2% and 102%, in recent years, agricultural production and rural industry electrification transformation and upgrading continued to advance, driving the primary industry to maintain rapid growth in electricity consumption. In terms of industries, the electricity consumption of agriculture, fishery and animal husbandry increased year-on-year in the first three quarters. 2%。
Second, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the secondary industry has increased quarter by quarter. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the secondary industry was 447 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 55%。Among them, the first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 7% and 73%。In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the manufacturing industry increased by 6% year-on-year1%, divided into categories,High-tech and equipment manufacturing industryElectricity consumption in the first three quarters increased by 10 percent year-on-year0%, exceeding the overall growth level of the manufacturing industry by 39 percentage points, the growth rate is leading;The first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 7% and 133%。In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and pharmaceutical manufacturing increased by more than 10% year-on-year. Driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the electricity consumption of new energy vehicle manufacturing increased by 39% year-on-year3%。Four high-energy industriesElectricity consumption in the first three quarters increased by 41%, of which the first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 9% and 72%；The electricity consumption of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry in the first three quarters increased by 2 percent year-on-year5%, of which the year-on-year growth rate rebounded to 11 in the third quarter5%；Electricity consumption in the cement industry in the first three quarters fell by 7 percent year-on-year3%。Consumer goods manufacturingElectricity consumption in the first three quarters increased by 49%, the year-on-year growth rate of quarterly electricity consumption decreased by 1 from the first quarter7% turned to a growth of 71%, and the growth rate in the third quarter rose further to 84%。The number of sub-sectors with positive year-on-year growth in electricity consumption in the consumer goods manufacturing industry increased from 3 in the first quarter to 11 in the second quarter, and the electricity consumption of all 12 sub-industries in the third quarter was positive. Other manufacturing industriesindustryElectricity consumption in the first three quarters increased by 97%, of which the first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 7% and 127%；In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries increased by 14 percent year-on-year4%。
Third, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry has resumed a rapid growth momentum. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the tertiary industry was 125 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 101%。Among them, the first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 9% and 105%；The average growth rate of the two years is as follows: 9% and 93%, up quarter by quarter, reflecting the steady recovery of the economic operation of the service industry as the impact of the epidemic gradually resolves. In the first three quarters, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in leasing and business services, wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, transportation, warehousing and postal services was 12% to 15%, and these four industries were greatly affected by the epidemic in some parts of the previous year, and have recovered significantly after the epidemic. The rapid development of electric vehicles has driven the electricity consumption of the charging and swapping service industry to increase by 71% year-on-year in the first three quarters3%。
Fourth, the electricity consumption of urban and rural residents has grown at a low rate. In the first three quarters, the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents was 104 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 05%。Among them, the first, second and third quarters increased year-on-year respectively. 6%、-0.5%, a high base in the same period last year (19.).8%) is the main reason for the negative growth of residential electricity consumption in the third quarter. From the perspective of the two-year average growth rate, the two-year average growth rate of urban and rural residents' domestic electricity consumption in the first three quarters was 70%, of which, the two-year average growth rate in the first, second and third quarters were respectively. 0% and 94%。In the first three quarters, a total of 12 provinces had negative year-on-year growth in the domestic electricity consumption of urban and rural residents, among them, Chongqing, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Hubei and Sichuan fell by more than 5% year-on-year, and the average temperature in these provinces in the third quarter was significantly lower than that of the same period last year.
Fifth, the electricity consumption of 31 provinces in the country is growing positively, and the growth rate of electricity consumption in the western and eastern regions is relatively leading. In the first three quarters, the electricity consumption of the whole society in the eastern, central, western and northeastern regions increased year-on-year respectively. 8% and 48%。In terms of provinces, the electricity consumption of the whole society in 31 provinces across the country is growing positively, of which the electricity consumption of Hainan, Inner Mongolia and Qinghai 4 provinces has a year-on-year growth rate of more than 10%.
Data**: Compiled by the National Energy Administration and the China Business Industry Research Institute.
(2) Electricity production
As of the end of September 2023, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation in China is 27900 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 123%。From the perspective of different types of investment, the growth rate of installed power generation capacity and structural changes, the power industry continues the trend of green and low-carbon transformation.
First, power investment has grown rapidly, and non-fossil energy power generation investment accounts for nearly ninety percent of power supply investment. In the first three quarters, the power investment of key survey enterprises was 882.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 247%。In terms of types, the investment in power supply was 553.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 411%, of which the investment in non-fossil energy power generation was 492 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 447%, accounting for 88 percent of power supply investment8%。Investment in solar power generation, nuclear power, wind power, thermal power and hydropower increased year-on-year respectively. 2% and 97%。The construction of power grid projects completed an investment of 328.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%。
Second, the installed capacity of new power generation will exceed 200 million kilowatts, of which more than 100 million kilowatts will be added to the installed capacity of solar power. In the first three quarters, the country's new installed power generation capacity was 2300 million kilowatts, 1 more than the same period last year100 million kilowatts;Among them, the new grid-connected solar power generation capacity is 1300 million kilowatts, 76.33 million kilowatts more than the same period last year, accounting for 57 percent of the total installed capacity of new power generation0%。As of the end of September, the installed capacity of full-caliber power generation in the country was 27900 million kilowatts;Among them, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation is 14600 million kilowatts, accounting for 52 percent of the first machine capacity4%, an increase of 3 year-on-year7 percentage points. In terms of types, hydropower 4200 million kilowatts, including 49.69 million kilowatts of pumped storage;nuclear power 56.76 million kilowatts;Grid-connected wind power 4000 million kilowatts, of which, onshore wind power 3700 million kilowatts and 31.89 million kilowatts of offshore wind power;Grid-connected solar power generation 5200 million kilowatts. Thermal power 13700 million kilowatts, of which 11 are coal-fired power500 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 35%, accounting for 41 percent of the total installed power generation capacity3%, a year-on-year decrease of 35 percentage points;Gas and electricity 1200 million kilowatts.
Third, hydropower generation has declined more year-on-year, and the proportion of coal-fired power generation in total power generation has remained at about 60%, giving full play to the role of ensuring supply. In the first three quarters, the power generation of power plants above designated size in the country was 662 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 42%。In the first three quarters, the hydropower generation of power plants above designated size fell by 10 year-on-year1%；The lack of water storage in major reservoirs at the beginning of the year and the continued low precipitation in the first half of the year led to a year-on-year decrease of 22 percent in hydropower generation from power plants above designated size in the first half of the year9%, the precipitation situation has improved since the second half of the year and the year-on-year growth rate of hydropower generation in the same period last year has rebounded to 185% and 392%。In the first three quarters, the power generation of thermal power and nuclear power of power plants above designated size increased by 5 year-on-year respectively8% and 60%。The proportion of coal-fired power generation in the total power generation remains at about 60%, and coal-fired power is still the most important power source in China, giving full play to the role of ensuring supply.
Fourth, the utilization hours of wind power, thermal power and nuclear power generation equipment increased year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants of 6,000 kilowatts and above across the country were 2,716 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 83 hours. In terms of types, hydropower was 2,367 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 362 hours, of which conventional hydropower was 2,585 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 383 hours;Pumped storage was 883 hours, an increase of 18 hours year-on-year. thermal power was 3,344 hours, an increase of 49 hours year-on-year;Among them, 3,501 hours of coal-fired power, an increase of 65 hours year-on-year;1,877 hours of gas and electricity, an increase of 51 hours year-on-year. 5,724 hours of nuclear power, an increase of 148 hours year-on-year. 1,665 hours of grid-connected wind power, an increase of 49 hours year-on-year. 1,017 hours of grid-connected solar power generation, a year-on-year decrease of 45 hours.
Fifth, the amount of electricity transmitted across regions and provinces has increased rapidly year-on-year. In the first three quarters, the length of new transmission lines of 220 kV and above was 2270,000 km;New substation capacity of 220 kV and above (AC) 15.6 billion kVA;The new DC converter capacity is 16 million kilowatts. In the first three quarters, the country completed the transmission of 637.4 billion kilowatt hours of electricity across regions, a year-on-year increase of 111%。In terms of sub-regions, the amount of electricity delivered in North China increased by 287%；The amount of electricity sent from Northeast China to North China increased by 490%；The amount of electricity delivered in China increased by 137%；Northwest power delivery increased by 22%；The amount of electricity delivered in southwest China increased by 4 year-on-year2%；The amount of electricity delivered in the southern region increased by 143%。In the first three quarters, the national inter-provincial transmission of electricity was 138 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 76%。Among them, Inner Mongolia sent 223.4 billion kilowatt hours, accounting for 16 percent of the country's inter-provincial electricity1%, up 166%；In the first seven months, the amount of electricity delivered by Sichuan and Yunnan decreased year-on-year, and the water situation improved in many months, and the output of electricity in Sichuan and Yunnan increased sharply year-on-year.
(3) The national electricity supply and demand
In the first three quarters, the power system operated safely and stably, the overall balance of power supply and demand, and good results were achieved in ensuring power supply during the peak summer. In order to cope with the situation of power shortage that may occur in the summer of this year, the relevant departments and power companies have made full preparations in advance, and the overall balance of the national power supply and demand situation during the peak summer, and the provincial power grids have not taken orderly power consumption measures, creating the best results of power supply in the peak summer in recent years, and providing a strong power guarantee for economic and social development and a better life for the people.
Second, the national electricity supply and demand situation**
(1) Electricity consumption**
It is expected that the growth rate of electricity consumption in the fourth quarter will be higher than that in the third quarter, and the annual growth rate will be higher than that of the previous year. Comprehensively considering factors such as macroeconomy and the base of the previous year, according to the results of different methods on the electricity consumption of the whole society, and combined with the prediction of experts in the analysis of the power supply and demand situation, it is estimated that the electricity consumption of the whole society in 2023 will be 92 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of about 6%, higher than the growth rate in 2022;Among them, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the fourth quarter is expected to exceed 7%, which is higher than the growth rate in the third quarter.
(2) Electricity***
It is expected that the installed scale of new power generation and non-fossil energy power generation will reach a new high throughout the year. Driven by the rapid development of new energy power generation, it is expected that the installed capacity of new power generation in the country will exceed 3 for the first time in history in 2023000 million kilowatts, of which the installed capacity of new non-fossil energy power generation exceeds 2500 million kilowatts. By the end of 2023, the country's installed power generation capacity is expected to reach 2.9 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of about 13%. The total installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation is 15500 million kilowatts, accounting for 53About 5%;Among them, hydropower 4200 million kilowatts, grid-connected wind power 4300 million kilowatts, grid-connected solar power generation 5600 million kilowatts, nuclear power 58.46 million kilowatts, and biomass power generation about 45 million kilowatts. By the end of 2023, the total installed capacity of grid-connected wind power and solar power generation will reach 1 billion kilowatts, accounting for more than one-third of the largest units, an increase of 4 year-on-yearAbout 5 percentage points.
(3) Electricity supply and demand situation**
It is expected that the overall balance of power supply and demand across the country during the peak winter period will be achieved. At present, the thermal coal inventory as a whole is at a good level in the same period of history, and the hydropower storage situation is also better than the same period last year. The power gap can be basically eliminated by giving full play to the optimal allocation of large power grid resources and carrying out the mutual treatment of surplus and shortage. If there are special circumstances such as persistent and widespread extreme cold spells and shortages of electricity and fuel, the number of provinces with tight power supply and demand will increase.
III. Relevant Recommendations
In order to ensure the safety and stability of the large power grid this winter and next spring, keep the bottom line of people's livelihood electricity, and promote high-quality economic and social development, the following suggestions are put forward in combination with the power supply and demand situation and the development trend of the industry:
(1) Do a good job of coordination between the top and bottom to ensure the safety of energy and power this winter and next spring**
The first is to do a good job in the guarantee of thermal coal. We will continue to implement the policy of ensuring coal supply and increase the release of advanced coal production capacityMaintain the stability of the coal import policy, extend the implementation period of the provisional tax rate of zero coal imports, give coal-using enterprises stable and long-term policy expectations, and consolidate the foundation of power supplyWe should do a good job in port inventory and emergency reserves to ensure that the price of thermal coal is stable, high-quality, and sufficient, and the number of days of coal storage available in power plants always meets the requirements of national supply. Study and improve the pricing mechanism of medium and long-term thermal coal contracts, adjust the current pricing mechanism of "single card consistency" for medium and long-term contracts, clearly follow the principle of "high quality and high price, low quality and low price", and adopt grade difference pricing to form a long-term mechanism to improve the quality of thermal coal. We will continue to provide preferential financial policies such as loans for guaranteed supply of coal power, and support the continuous reduction of financing costs in important energy sectors such as coal power. For power plants with tight transportation capacity, we will help coordinate in a timely manner, and deploy and start coal storage during the regional heating period in Northeast China and North China in advance.
The second is to do a good job in natural gas reserves, water storage and power generation, and wind and solar resources. Supervise and urge upstream enterprises to do a good job in natural gas reserves and strictly perform pipeline gas contracts. According to the needs of balance, power enterprises shall scientifically arrange the monthly and intra-month contract implementation plans of each power plant。 Formulate an emergency plan for natural gas to "pressure non-protect the people" and make every effort to ensure people's livelihood gas. We should do a good job in hydropower storage and power generation, scientifically optimize hydropower dispatching, and actively adopt effective measures such as multi-energy complementarity to give full play to the peak power generation capacity of large hydropower. Strengthen meteorological consultation and analysis, and improve the accuracy of early warning of new energy power generation.
The third is to strengthen the governance of heating equipment and further promote the adjustment of heat price policies. Seize the pre-season window period of heating supply, make every effort to promote the treatment of old equipment and pipe network, and improve the reliability of equipment and pipe network. In terms of fuel, certain policy guarantees and preferential treatment are given to heating units. Strengthen the guidance on heat price adjustment at the national level, urge local governments to implement heat price adjustment and subsidy distribution in a timely manner in combination with the heating cost and operation of regional heating enterprises, and increase subsidies for heating enterprises with operating difficulties. Promote projects such as thermal electrolytic coupling transformation, heat storage peak shaving, and heat network heat source transformation in a steady and orderly manner.
Fourth, do a good job in ensuring power generation of units. Strengthen the management and control of the unit and tap the peak potential of the unit. Make full use of the favorable opportunity of stable electricity load in autumn, and carry out unit maintenance in an orderly manner to ensure that the power supply and heating in the peak winter are in a healthy state. Strengthen the normalized management of generating units, continue to strictly control the scale of unplanned outages and obstructed output, and ensure that the units can fully and effectively output during peak periods of electricity load.
Fifth, promote the coordinated supply of source, grid, load and storage. We will continue to optimize the peak-to-valley time-of-use electricity price policy, comprehensively promote the peak-to-valley electricity price for residents, explore policy synergies, and mobilize the enthusiasm of load-side resources to the greatest extent. Strengthen the market-oriented management of power load resources, expand demand response subsidy funds through multiple channels, and tap the potential of demand-side resources. Special support policies have been introduced to guide the cultivation of high-quality power load resources such as electric vehicles and distributed energy storage to participate in demand response. Clarify the responsibilities of various market entities, and further rationalize the load management connection mechanism.
(2) Adhere to systematic planning, and do a good job in the coordinated development of new energy consumption and other types of power sources
The first is to optimize the scale, layout and timing of new energy development in a timely manner. Reasonably promote the progress of new energy construction. Strengthen the supply and demand monitoring of the new energy industry chain, put an end to the disorderly and vicious competition of raw materials, and ensure the orderly development of the upstream and downstream of the industry. Increase the coordinated planning, collaborative development and joint dispatch of regional renewable energy, and give full play to the role of new energy in energy supply。
The second is to effectively improve the capacity of new energy consumption. Accelerate the construction of inter-regional and inter-provincial UHV channels, and improve the capacity of new energy transmission in power grid regions such as the northeast and northwest. Coordinate the coordinated development of new energy projects and supporting power grid projects, accelerate the transformation of distribution networks, increase distribution capacity, and ensure the effective consumption of distributed power generation. We will improve the trading mechanism for green certificates, smooth the channels for purchasing green electricity and green certificates, expand the scale of green certificates and green electricity transactions, and implement the responsibility of the whole society to jointly promote energy transition. Accelerate the introduction of new energy consumption mechanism policies for large bases and Shage famine.
The third is to improve the effective utilization rate of energy storage. In the case of promoting the rapid development of new energy, combined with factors such as local consumption situation, grid structure, load characteristics, power supply structure, new energy development, etc., the proportion and scale of new energy storage are scientifically calculated and determined, and the unified scheduling and shared use are used to maximize the multiple roles of energy storage in promoting new energy consumption, peak regulation and frequency regulation, and power support.
(3) Continue to deepen reform and give full play to the important role of the market in ensuring power supply
The first is to speed up the construction of the capacity market and the ancillary service market, and gradually establish a mechanism for the user side to participate in the market. Accelerate the formulation and introduction of the "two-part system" electricity price for coal-fired power, set compensation standards for ancillary services according to local conditions, reasonably channel the cost of coal-fired power, and ensure that the peak supply of coal-fired power units and the value of system regulation are reasonably rewarded。 Strengthen research on optimizing the varieties of auxiliary services, expanding the main body of auxiliary services, and expanding the scope of sharing of auxiliary service resources, and promote the reasonable channeling of auxiliary service fees to the user side. Improve the mechanism for the formation of electricity prices for inter-provincial priority power generation plans for coal-fired power, establish and improve the mechanism for user-side participation in the market, and guide and encourage user-side resources to provide power balance adjustment capabilities。
The second is to promote medium and long-term time-sharing transactions. It is suggested to further improve the medium and long-term "time-sharing" mechanism, refine the design of the relevant mechanism of medium- and long-term "time-sharing", promote the better connection between medium- and long-term transactions and the spot market, realize economic incentives for peak supply units and trough electricity users, and meet the deviation power adjustment needs of various types of market entities after large-scale new energy participates in the medium and long-term market.
The third is to improve the market trading mechanism and scientifically promote the participation of new energy and heating units in the market. Establish a power market mechanism that is more suitable for the characteristics of new energy, reduce the requirements for the proportion of annual medium and long-term contracts signed by new energy power generation enterprises, relax the price limit for new energy projects to participate in market transactions or set a reasonable range, and promote market players to participate in the market in accordance with their inherent production characteristics. Establish a medium and long-term trading mechanism that adapts to the characteristics of new energy power generation in terms of transaction timing, granularity and frequency, and can be connected to spot trading, so as to ensure the trading of new energy power market, decompose and implement the responsibility for consumption to all users, improve the assessment mechanism, and stimulate the demand for green electricity in the whole society。 Implement the national guaranteed purchase policy of guaranteed quantity and price of renewable energy, and ensure the reasonable return on investment of new energy enterprises。
For more information, please refer to the "Research Report on Market Prospects and Investment Opportunities of China's Power Industry" released by the China Commercial Industry Research Institute, and the China Commercial Industry Research Institute also provides industrial big data, industrial intelligence, industry research reports, industry business plans, feasibility study reports, park industrial planning, industrial chain investment map, industrial investment guidelines, industrial chain investment investigation & promotion meetings and other services.