Author丨Bian Wanli.
Editor丨Li Yumin.
Source丨Photo.com.
On December 13, the central bank released a report on financial statistics and social financing scale data for November. The data showed that broad money (M2) increased by 10% year-on-year, and narrow money (M1) increased by 13%, M1 and M2 year-on-year growth rates both fell. Renminbi loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance was 94%, an increase from the previous month.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that on the whole, the year-on-year increase in credit in November is in line with the fluctuation law of monthly credit delivery since the beginning of this year, and on the other hand, it may also be related to factors such as the replacement of special refinancing bonds with the existing loans of urban investment platforms, which does not necessarily mean that the new credit has weakened substantially. In the context of the current steady growth policy, there is no need to over-interpret the fluctuation of the scale of new loans in a single month.
Looking ahead, driven by the implementation of the "balanced credit supply" requirement by banks and the expected full force of the year-end steady growth policy, new RMB loans are expected to resume year-on-year growth in December, and the main uncertainty is still the scale of special refinancing bonds to replace the existing loans of urban investment platforms.
The year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 both fell
At the end of November, the balance of broad money (m2) was 2912 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%, and the growth rate was 03 and 24 percentage points. Narrow money (m1) balance 6759 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, the growth rate was 0.0 lower than the end of last month and the same period last year, respectively6 and 33 percentage points. Currency in circulation (m0) balance 1102 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 104%。The net cash injection in the month was 166 billion yuan.
In November, the year-on-year growth rates of M1 and M2 both fell. From the perspective of the structure of M1 and M2, M1 is composed of M0 + corporate demand deposits, and M2 is composed of M1 + quasi-currency (time deposits + resident savings deposits + other deposits). Among them, the year-on-year growth rate of M1 in November continued the downward trend since May 2023.
Since 2023, the growth rate of M2 has been declining month by month from March, and it has been declining for seven consecutive years in September. According to the data, the growth rate of M2 from January to September 2023 is respectively. 3%。M2 increased by 10% year-on-year in October3%, the same as the growth rate in September, fell again in November. Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, analyzed that due to the "redemption wave" of financial management in the same period last year, the high base (M2 growth rate in November last year was as high as 12.4%), making the year-on-year growth rate of M2 decline this month.
According to Liang Si, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, there are two main reasons for the continued decline in M2 growth: First, the impact of the acceleration of bond issuance. **Deposits formed by debt financing are not included in the M2 statistics, which will have a pumping effect on M2 when income exceeds expenditure. Fiscal deposits decreased in November, but the rate of decline declinedSecond, the growth rate of residents' deposits has dropped markedly. In November, the new residents' savings deposits increased by 1 year-on-year34 trillion yuan.
According to the data, RMB deposits increased by 25 percent in the first 11 months65 trillion yuan, an increase of 130.1 billion yuan year-on-year. RMB deposits increased by 2 in November53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 427.3 billion yuan. Among them, household deposits increased by 908.9 billion yuan, deposits of non-financial enterprises increased by 248.7 billion yuan, financial deposits decreased by 329.3 billion yuan, and deposits of non-banking financial institutions increased by 157 trillion yuan.
It is worth noting that the difference between M1 and M2 scissors has widened to 87 percentage points, the highest for the year. Wang Qing believes that the main reason is that in the context of the real estate downturn, residents' demand for housing has declined, and the transfer of residents' deposits to real estate demand deposits has been blocked. This also means that the transmission of easy money to stable growth is not smooth. At present, there is an urgent need to boost the endogenous growth momentum of the economy by effectively stimulating domestic demand and boosting the activity of the real economy, especially promoting the real estate industry to achieve a soft landing as soon as possible.
Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the financial market department of Everbright Bank, said that from the trend point of view, M2 is expected to maintain a steady growth year-on-year. The main reason is that the central bank is expected to continue to provide strong support for the economic recovery;The central bank has put base money through a variety of tools to maintain reasonable and abundant market liquidity and guide the financing cost of the real economy to decline steadily. At the same time, with the gradual recovery of the economy, the increase in the activity of micro subjects, the increase in the demand for financial integration, and the enhancement of the ability to derive money, the M2-M1 scissors gap will gradually narrow.
According to preliminary statistics, the stock of social financing scale at the end of November 2023 was 37639 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 94%, a growth rate of 9An increase of 3%. Among them, the growth rate of social financing stock in August, September and October was respectively. 3%。The increase in the scale of social financing in November was 245 trillion yuan, 455.6 billion yuan more than the same period last year;In the first 11 months of 2023, the cumulative increase in the scale of social financing was 3365 trillion yuan, 2 more than the same period last year79 trillion yuan.
Analyzing the increment of social finance in November, it is found that trust loans, bank acceptance bills, corporate bonds, and ** bonds constitute the supporting items of social finance. Among them, trust loans increased by 19.7 billion yuan, an increase of 56.2 billion yuan year-on-yearUndiscounted bank acceptance bills increased by 20.3 billion yuan, an increase of 1.2 billion yuan year-on-yearThe net financing of corporate bonds was 133 billion yuan, an increase of 72.6 billion yuan year-on-year**Net Bond Financing115 trillion yuan, 499.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year.
Zhao Wei, chief economist of IFC**, said that within the expectation of new social finance, the growth rate of stock continued to rise, representing the effective growth rate of medium and long-term funds of enterprises fell by 0 from the previous month2 percentage points. The growth rate of social finance rebounded, mainly due to the support of ** bonds, and the performance of other sub-items was flat. Among the sub-items, ** bonds are financed in a single month115 trillion yuan, a record high in the same period in history, driving the growth rate of social finance stock by 03 percentage points. The new RMB loans were broadly the same as the same period last year;Other sub-items also performed flat, with corporate bonds improving year-on-year under a low base, and ** financing continuing to contract year-on-year.
Renminbi loans increased by 109 trillion yuan
According to the data, RMB loans increased by 21 in the first 11 months58 trillion yuan, an increase of 1 year-on-year55 trillion yuan. Renminbi loans increased by 109 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 136.8 billion yuan. "In November, RMB loans increased by 351.6 billion yuan month-on-month, and credit growth stabilized at a reasonable level. Wen Bin said that in order to ensure a "good start" for the next year, banks usually reduce credit in the fourth quarter.
Wen Bin further pointed out that in mid-November this year, the symposium of financial institutions jointly held by the three departments pointed out that "it is necessary to implement the requirements of cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustment, focus on strengthening the balanced supply of credit, and consider the credit supply in the second two months of this year and the beginning of next year, so as to promote the stable growth of China's economy with the stability of credit growth".At the same time, the central bank also emphasized in the third quarter monetary policy implementation report that "efforts should be made to strengthen the balanced delivery of loans, coordinate the credit work at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, and moderately smooth credit fluctuations". However, considering that a large number of special refinancing bonds have been issued by local governments since October, some existing loans will be repaid one after another from November, which will hedge the total amount of new loans, but the overall stability is at a reasonable level.
In terms of the structure of new RMB loans, household loans increased by 292.5 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 59.4 billion yuan and medium and long-term loans increased by 233.1 billion yuan. Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 822.1 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 170.5 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 446 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 209.2 billion yuanLoans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 20.7 billion yuan.
Zhao Wei believes that the year-on-year decrease in credit and the obvious drag of medium and long-term loans of enterprises are related to the high base. The bills continued to increase year-on-year, and the new short-term loans of enterprises hit a new high in the same period since 2016, which may be related to the replenishment of liquidity across the yearOn the residential side, short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans both improved year-on-year, and the sustainability needs to be further tracked.
It is worth noting that the recent economic work conference pointed out that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, moderate, precise and effective. Liquidity should be kept reasonable and abundant, and the scale of social financing and the amount of money should match the expected targets of economic growth and the highest level. We should give full play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools, revitalize the stock, improve efficiency, and guide financial institutions to increase support for scientific and technological innovation, green transformation, inclusive small and micro enterprises, and digital economy. Promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs. Maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.
Combined with financial statistics, Wang Qing judged that before the end of the year, monetary policy and fiscal policy will coordinate and cooperate to escort the issuance of additional treasury bonds. To this end, the central bank is likely to take two measures: one is to cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 025 percentage points;The second is to continue to increase the sequel MLF on a large scale in December. The latter is more probable. "Promote the steady and moderate decline of social comprehensive financing costs", coupled with the fact that domestic prices will continue to be at a low level for a period of time in the future, the MLF interest rate may be lowered once in the first half of 2024. In terms of structure, "flexible, moderate, precise and effective" means that the new credit scale indicator will be diluted in 2024, and the focus will be on increasing the efficiency of the use of new credit by revitalizing existing loans, etc., and structural monetary policy tools will be further relied on, and the possibility that the central bank will create new policy tools cannot be ruled out.
sfc
Editor of this issue: Liu Xueying, Xi, Zhao Fengling.
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