The Russian-Ukrainian war has been going on for two years, and the military situation in Ukraine has not improved because of the strong support of the United States and NATO. On the contrary, Ukraine's ** plans were crushed by Russia, and NATO military equipment and mercenaries were captured and publicly humiliated by Russia. Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has leisure to visit friendly countries and also hold military exhibitions in the country to demonstrate Russia's military strength. If the United States wants to organize ** again, I am afraid it will not be a matter of time and a half.12
With the arrival of autumn and winter, the terrain of the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield is very unfavorable for mechanized troops. Last year, Russia's mechanized units encountered difficulties on muddy black soil, which was witnessed by the whole world. And Ukraine's mechanized forces and combat system are far inferior to Russia's, and it is a fool's dream to achieve superiority in autumn and winter3.
It is said that NATO is planning a "spring offensive" for Ukraine next year, believing that this is Ukraine's last chance. But who can guarantee that Russia will not launch ** from the Kharkov direction, again threatening the security of Kyiv during this time?
The defeat of the United States in the Russia-Ukraine war has forced it to find new points of conflict to disrupt global peace and development, maintain the hegemony of the dollar, and alleviate its own debt crisis and economic difficulties. The U.S. targets the periphery of its major strategic rivals, such as China's South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.4
The US provocations in the Taiwan Strait have failed, and high-level visits, arms sales, and meetings with Taiwan politicians have not affected Chinese mainland's policy rhythm and the stability of the Taiwan Strait. On the contrary, under the provocation of the United States, Chinese mainland's military forces have more frequently tested Taiwan's bottom line and security borders. The middle line of the Taiwan Strait no longer exists, Chinese mainland's military exercises have covered the entire island of Taiwan, and its ability to blockade, cruise, and seize the island is getting stronger and stronger. Both the world and Taiwanese society clearly see that from a military point of view, Taiwan is the "meat" that Chinese mainland can take at any time. The role of the United States is already very limited. Taiwan's politicians do not dare to clamor anymore and can only seek peace and avoid war. In the chess game in the Taiwan Strait, the United States only won face, but lost the inside.
The last card of the United States in China's periphery is the South China Sea. The United States wants to use the Philippines to provoke disputes in the South China Sea, and no matter what the outcome, the United States will not suffer. If the Philippines continues to strengthen the reef and carry out regular resupply in the name of the military, it will provide justification for the illegal occupation of the reef and enhance the sense of US presence in the South China Sea. The United States will certainly encourage other claimants in the South China Sea to adopt the same tactics and make a mess of the situation in the South China Sea, thereby disrupting China's policy focus and pace of development, and distracting China.5
In contrast, the United States would prefer to see a direct military conflict between China and the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal, which would give the United States a greater pretext to intervene in the South China Sea. These means have been fully demonstrated in the Russian-Ukrainian war. The Western propaganda machine will immediately accuse and slander China to create "evidence" for sanctions against China. The United States and NATO will quickly intervene in the South China Sea, and the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier strike group is cruising near the Philippines, giving the United States a reason to mobilize more allies in the event of an exchange of fire.
The core strategy of the United States is still to stir up its allies to isolate and divide China, disrupt the strategic environment and economic development rhythm around China, grasp the bargaining chips in negotiations, and force China to pay for a series of "messes" of the United States. Such dramas and routines have been staged over the past few decades, and now everyone knows very well how the United States can easily succeedOur confidence in the South China Sea is that our strength is not as good as before.
The USS Ronald Reagan carrier strike group was sunk twice by China's Dongfeng-27 missiles on its way to the South China Sea. The DF-27 is China's newest ultra-long-range anti-ship missile, capable of accurately hitting moving target ships in the South China Sea after flying more than 5,000 kilometers. The terminal attack speed is up to Mach 15, which the existing means of air defense cannot intercept. It is rumored that the DF-27 has a range of more than 8,000 kilometers, and the US aircraft carrier battle group may be sunk halfway along the east coast of the Pacific Ocean
In the past two decades of development, the number of ships and total tonnage of the Chinese Navy have approached that of the US Navy, in addition to being slightly inferior to the US Navy in the number of aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines, the new generation of 052D destroyers, 055 cruisers and 054A frigates have surpassed the Arleigh Burke-class destroyers and Ticonderoga-class cruisers that have been in service in the United States for decades, and have become the main equipment of the ocean-going navy7.