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The Fed's last interest rate meeting in 2023 is "dove" loudly. Risk assets then moved higher, with spot *** back above $2,000 an ounce.
On December 13, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose sharply, all closing at intraday highs. The Dow rose 14% at 3709024 points, a record high;The Nasdaq rose 138%, and the S&P 500 rose 137%。
On the other hand, on the US dollar, on December 13, local time, the US dollar index was sharply **. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, was 096%, closing at 102865。
The dollar weakened, and ** went on the offensive again. The most active market trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in February 2024 ** futures price fell below $1988 after the European stock market turned down before the day to refresh the daily low, fell within the day, and turned up before the European stock market opened, and then maintained the rally, the US stock market expanded after the US PPI was announced, quickly rose above $2000, and was close to $2002 to refresh the daily high, up more than 04%。
In the end, COMEX closed up 021% to 1997The $3 ounce, after closing lower for four consecutive sessions, is out of Tuesday's lowest level since Nov. 22, but has not regained $2,000 on Monday after falling below $2,000 for the first time since before Thanksgiving.
After the announcement of the Federal Reserve's decision, the rise in futures expanded rapidly, rising above $2,030, and the intraday increase expanded to more than 2%.
After the announcement of the U.S. PPI, the spot ** also expanded, and the U.S. stock market was close to $1987 to refresh the daily high, up nearly 04%, after the announcement of the Fed's decision, it quickly broke through the $2,000 mark.
On December 13, local time, although the Federal Reserve did not move as expected, the dot plot "officially announced" that the current round of interest rate hike cycle had ended. At the same time, for 2024, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates three times, which is seen by the market as a "dovish" signal.
What attracted the most attention from the market was the overall dovish bias of Powell's speech and discussed the timing of interest rate cuts.
On the issue of interest rates, while Powell still said that he did not rule out further rate hikes, he also said that monetary policy has been tightened significantly, and policy rates have reached or are close to peaking, and that he is now proceeding cautiously. At the same time, Powell said that the committee began to think and discuss when it would be appropriate to cut interest rates, and that the dual mission is now more balanced.
Looking ahead, analysts expect that the current round of Fed interest rate hikes may have ended. However, it may not be until the middle or second half of 2024 that the Fed actually starts cutting interest rates.
The CITIC ** research report pointed out that the overall CPI in the United States in November was 0The 1% increase is small, does not show the first sign of inflation, and combined with our judgment on excess savings, student loan repayment recovery and other issues, it is expected that the domestic demand of the US economy will tend to decline in the fourth quarter, so it is expected that the current round of Fed interest rate hikes may have ended.
Although Powell still said that he did not rule out the possibility of further tightening, the dot plot shows that there is no longer any ** expectation that the policy rate next year will be higher than the level in December this year, which is tantamount to a disguised 'official announcement' that the policy rate has peaked in this cycle. CICC research report said.
However, for interest rate cuts, CITIC ** believes that the November non-farm data shows that the U.S. job market is still relatively resilient, and the November CPI data also shows that the U.S. services inflation is sticky, and a premature interest rate cut may increase the risk of inflation.
With a low probability of a recession in the first half of the year and a relatively slow decline in core inflation, the probability of the US economy reaching employment conditions in March 2024 is extremely low, and a more reasonable scenario may be to start cutting interest rates in the second half of next year. The Soochow ** macro Taochuan team said in the research report.
In addition, CICC reminded investors that in the short term, although the Fed's ** rhetoric will strengthen the "soft landing" trade, it remains to be seen whether the final outcome is really good. In the medium term, there is also a lot of uncertainty about the Fed's rate cut path, and market volatility is likely to increase in the process.
Heraeus Precious Metals said it is expected to be the industry's best-performing asset in 2024 as the world faces a potential recession, forcing investors to look for safe-haven assets.
Commodity analysts at Heraeus*** have released their outlook for 2024, and they believe that gold will trade between $1,880 and $2,250 an ounce in the new year as the economic slowdown forces the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Analysts noted that the Fed has performed relatively well as raising interest rates aggressively, providing solid support to the dollar and pushing bond yields to multi-year highs.
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