Putin promised to get Ukraine done within 5 years, can China believe that Russia can win?

Mondo International Updated on 2024-01-31

Russia** Putin told China in March this year that the Russian army would fight in Ukraine for at least five years, but Russia would eventually win. However, we need to look at this report rationally, and foreign media often have bias and subjective speculation when talking about the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The only thing worth paying attention to is the detail of "five years".

It has been less than 2 years since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and Putin has long indicated to the Chinese side that he will fight for at least 5 years, which seems to indicate that Russia has long been psychologically prepared for a long-term war of attrition with Ukraine, and let China understand the time span of the conflict. But Russia is not clinging to the five-year deadline, but will be flexible in adapting to the situation. The move reflects Russia's cautious anticipation of the conflict in Ukraine.

Ukraine retains a large number of vital forces, has not lost important strategic towns, and has received military assistance from the United States and Europe, while Russia has not been able to achieve a quick victory. The key for Russia, then, is how to end the conflict, not how long it lasts. The worst-case scenario for Russia is the resolute resistance of Ukraine, the continuation of external aid, and the isolation of Russia.

However, the current situation seems that Russia controls most of the territory in eastern Ukraine, and there are also news of discord within Ukraine, Western military aid has been reduced, and Russia has taken the initiative diplomatically. Therefore, Russia is open to peace talks with a view to ending the conflict and returning to normal life as soon as possible. Putin's reference to "at least five years" is also a message to China. During China's visit in March, the focus was on China-Russia relations, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict accounting for only a small part.

Russia expressed its commitment to resuming peace talks as soon as possible, which was appreciated by China. If Russia were to be at war with Ukraine for five years, it would face encirclement from the United States and Europe, and it would be difficult for relations with the West to be restored immediately. Therefore, Russia hopes that Sino-Russian relations will not change much during this period. However, China-Russia relations cannot be forcibly linked to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is not conducive to the long-term development of China-Russia relations.

Whether or not Putin's "five-year" period exists, it cannot change our core position on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China-Russia relations. We have always viewed China-Russia relations from a strategic perspective and have not been guided by short-term gains and losses. China-Russia relations should not be rigidly tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which is not in line with the logic of China-Russia relations, but also violates the basic principles of China-Russia relations. We will not let external factors change our established approach to Sino-Russian relations.

Related Pages